The $1m Thousand Guineas is a Group 1 race held for three-year-old fillies at Caulfield Racecourse, under set weights conditions. The 1600m feature is a grand final race for many, but is also used as a pathway to the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes and Group 1 VRC Oaks, held over 2500m at Flemington. The Team Hawkes trained, Yearning, came from last on the turn to take out last year’s Thousand Guineas, with Damien Thornton in the saddle.
Boogie Dancer is currently $3.50 favourite with Dabble for this year’s Thousand Guineas, following a dominant last start victory. Kiwi filly, She’s Licketysplit, is on the next line at $4.20, just ahead of the Waterhouse/Bott trained, North Star Lass, at $5.50. Russian Conquest ($8.50) is also given a hope, as is Sydney-sider Madame Pommery ($9.00).
With a compressed market and some very even form lines on paper, this year’s Thousand Guineas looks like anyone’s race. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview for the 2022 Thousand Guineas along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Russian Conquest (1) – $8.50
Jockey – Jamie Kah 56kg
Trainer – Peter & Paul Snowden
Failed to make an impression first up on heavy ground at Randwick before a much improved effort last start at Sandown behind Waltz On By. She ran some good closing splits there and gives the indication the mile will suit. Will need some luck from the inside gate but has to be considered a chance on her latest effort.
The weather forecast is again taking a fair bit of our time in Melbourne and Sydney. Tim Bailey @MelbRacingClub Caulfield track manager is hoping the rain comes in on Thousand Guineas day after the last. Have to get through Thursday before a couple of reasonably clear days.
— Andrew Bensley (@AndrewBensley) October 10, 2022
2. Revolutionary Miss (10) – $23
Jockey – Mark Zahra 56kg
Trainer – Peter & Paul Snowden
Went back to last from the wide gate last start and made some good late ground behind Waltz On By at Sandown. Gets a bit of weight relief here and races well at this track. Will most likely be ridden cold from the wide gate again here and should be in the finish if she can run a strong mile.
3. She’s Licketysplit (5) – $4.20
Jockey – Damian Lane 56kg
Trainer – Andrew Forsman
Covered ground at Caulfield under the big weight and whacked away solidly behind Boogie Dancer, before a strong win in the Edward Manifold last start. Has the benefit of a mile run under her belt and drawn well here. Major player.
4. Boogie Dancer (6) – $3.50F
Jockey – Luke Nolen 56kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody
Got back and finished strongly to destroy her rivals in the Tranquil Star last start here at Caulfield. Ran faster time than Aft Cabin on the day and the form out of the race has since been franked by She’s Licketysplit and Mumbai Jewel. Comes into this three weeks between runs and up to the mile which is the only concern, but is a deserved favourite and looks hard to beat.
5. North Star Lass (2) – $5.50
Jockey – Tim Clark 56kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Led them up and continued her consistent form with a solid third in the Flight Stakes last start. Ran a strong mile in testing conditions on that occasion and looks the likely leader here. The Sydney form has stood up well so far this Spring and she looks one of the main hopes here.
6. Waltz On By (3) – $17
Jockey – Craig Williams 56kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody
Made it two wins in a row last start winning the Jim Moloney at Sandown. The step up to 1600m looks a little query but she should get a sweet run behind the speed and be given every chance.
Beautiful day in Melbourne building into Wednesdays Thousand Guineas day @MelbRacingClub Caulfield. Rail stays in the true position. pic.twitter.com/iEQ0cZes08
— Andrew Bensley (@AndrewBensley) October 10, 2022
7. Madame Pommery (4) – $9.00
Jockey – James McDonald 56kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Just missed in the Tea Rose behind Zougotcha before failing to make an impression in the Flight Stakes last start. Drier track should suit her here, she’s drawn well and nobody is riding better than McDonald of late. Chance on her best form.
8. Moko (11) – $34
Jockey – Ben Melham 56kg
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman
*This horse has since been scratched.*
Given too much to do first up in a Pakenham maiden and was narrowly defeated before an even run last start behind She’s Licketysplit. Should be ready to peak third up and had some good form last prep behind Williamsburg. Not out of it.
9. Jenny Jerome (9) – $26
Jockey – Harry Coffey 56kg
Trainer – Patrick Payne
Got back and rattled home along the inside to finish a close second behind Waltz On By last start. Beaten 0.2L by Boogie Dancer in maiden grade and is out of the same dam as Cherry Tortoni, suggesting the mile will be a plus. If the speed is genuine she is a definite winning chance.
10. Tajneed (8) – $12
Jockey – Damien Oliver 56kg
Trainer – Peter & Paul Snowden
Got the job done first up at Sandown before a solid effort in the Edward Manifold last start. Drawn a sticky gate here but gets the services of D Oliver and has to be respected on what she’s done so far in her short career.
11. She’s Pretty Rich (7) – $126
Jockey – Brian Higgins 56kg
Trainer – Matthew Brown
Ran a good race in the Cap D’Antibes at odds before travelling wide and copping a bump in the Jim Moloney last start. Probably needs to find a couple of lengths to win this but shouldn’t be the price she is.
Final Word
An even bunch of fillies line up to contest this year’s Group 1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. The speed looks moderate with the Waterhouse/Bott trained, North Star Lass, the likely leader. There is some rain forecast for late in the day but the surface should be good.
“She’s done her job this filly, we’re in the big dance.”
Managing owner @wylie_dalziel is bullish about Boogie Dancer’s chances in Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas at Caulfield 👊 pic.twitter.com/Uuz5AHyoBq
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 10, 2022
Going with the Sydney-sider here in North Star Lass. Her runs this prep have all been solid in top grade races, and her form around the likes of Zougotcha and In Secret reads well for a race like this. She should get a soft enough lead and prove very hard to run down around Caulfield.
The Patrick Payne trained, Jenny Jerome, looks well over the odds after an eye-catching second at Sandown last start. She ran Boogie Dancer to a neck when they met in a maiden at Donald, and the mile looks right up her alley.
Favourite, Boogie Dancer, and Kiwi filly, She’s Licketysplit, look good winning chances and there’s no knock but feel there is some value to be found in what appears to be a level race.
Thousand Guineas Tip
5. North Star Lass – Win ($5.50)
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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.
