2021 Thousand Guineas Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

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Mon 11th October 2021
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The Caulfield Cup carnival continues on Wednesday with the Thousand Guineas for three-year-old fillies. There are 13 horses that have accepted entry the race and after finding the winner of the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday, we are keen to get stuck into Wednesday’s Group One. 

Sportsbet currently, as of Monday night, have Hinged as their $4.20 favourite for the Thousand Guineas. Zouzarella opened at $4.60 favourite and has been brought in to $4.40 but the punters came for Hinged, who opened at $4.80. The only other runner in single figure odds is the late entry, Oaks preview winner – Barb Raider ($5.50). 

Everyone is looking at the weather reports as there is up to 20mm forecast for Wednesday afternoon, but when will the rain actually come? Given the weather plus the fact that this is rare mid-week Group One racing, you may not have the time to do all of the form for the big race for three-year-old fillies. However, you don’t need to as we have done that for you. Read on below to find out runner-by-runner preview of the Group One 1600m Thousand Guineas, along with our best tip!

1. Swift Witness (12) – $13
Jockey – Michael Dee
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Swift Witness is an on-pace runner that has been set a task by drawing barrier 12 of 13. She led throughout the Flight Stakes, when finishing 2.6L back in fourth behind Never Been Kissed, who came second in the Spring Champion Stakes on the quick back-up, franking the form. She has good form on soft tracks but the tactics may be against her from the wide draw.

2. Hinged (9) – $4.20
Jockey – Damian Lane
Trainer – Chris Waller

While Swift Witness’ fourth place in the Flight Stakes was impressive, Hinged had an even better run. She burst home along the rails to narrowly miss the win, finishing just 0.2L back in second. She is the most experienced and successful filly in the race, plus she stays at 1600m, where she has a win and a second from two runs. Add in the fact that she has great stats on good (5:2-2-0), soft (3:2-1-0) and heavy (1:1-0-0) surfaces, there is no surprises that she is favourite. 

3. Elusive Express (11) – $10
Jockey – Jye McNeil
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman

Elusive Express brings a completely different formline into the race, winning the G2 1610m Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington, on the same day as the Flight Stakes. She has had just four career runs, finishing top three in all of them, including two wins. Both her wins have come on soft tracks, indicating she will be fine if the rain comes, it is just whether the Melbourne filly form is better than Sydney’s, which it very well may!

4. Bon’s A Pearla (13) – $18
Jockey – Jason Maskiell
Trainer – Kevin Corstens

Three fillies in the Thousand Guineas contested the Thousand Guineas prelude 3.5 weeks ago and Bon’s A Peala came out on top in that race. She actually looked gone in that race heading around the bend but had an incredible last 200m to steal it from Heresy. She did carry 2kg less than Heresy there, and meets her at set weights here, whilst also forcing her three wide the trip, which she won’t be able to do from barrier 13. 

5. Literary Magnate (6) – $46
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Trainer – Matthew Williams

Would be a surprise. Literary Magnate has finished behind a few of these in her last couple of runs despite meeting them at equal or lighter weights. It is her first trip up to 1600m but she didn’t finish 1400m off strongly and may be out of her depth here. 

6. Zouzarella (2) – $4.40
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman

Zouzarella opened as favourite and that is no surprise. The back-marker had no luck chasing down Queen Of Dubai last time out but Sandown is known for being leader-bias. She comfortably won her two runs over 1200m to start the prep and looks like one of the main contenders off a 2.5 week break, where most of her main rivals have either had 1.5 or 3.5 weeks. 

7. Heresy (1) – $10
Jockey – Damien Oliver
Trainer – James Cummings

Was unlucky to be pipped at the post in the prelude but should get much better luck here. Heresy has carried 56.5kg or heavier in all three of her runs this prep and drops back to 56kg at the set weight conditions. She was also forced three wide last time out but should get a nice, cushy ride from barrier one at Caulfield. Having her fourth favourite is probably fair enough but $10 may be overs. 

8. Queen Of Dubai (10) – $21
Jockey – Jordan Childs
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

A Waterhouse/Bott trained horse jumping to the front, leading throughout and winning. Sounds familiar right? Queen Of Dubai was very impressive when beating Zouzarella at Sandown but had conditions to suit her there. She may not get those here with other fillies to contest her for the lead and any rain would benefit others more than her as well.

9. Yearning (7) – $26
Jockey – Damien Thornton
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Yearning was scratched from the G1 Flight in favour of the G2 Edward Manifold a week and a half ago and arguably should have won it. While Elusive Express was able to peel off into clear air, Yearning got her momentum halted when the leader slowed down in front of her. She was able to burst back to be right in the finish with Elusive Express but fell half a length short. She is now $26 while Elusive Express is only $10? She will be better for the run at 1610m and has a win and a second from two runs on soft tracks. Could be a blow-out chance. 

10. Barb Raider (3) – $5.50
Jockey – Craig Williams
Trainer – Jerome Hunter

In an interesting move, connections have paid the late entry fee for Barb Raider despite the filly winning the 1800m Oaks Preview and is on an Oaks path. She has won two on the trot, including a 2L win in the Preview, and connections are confident she has the speed and turn-of-foot to match it at 1600m, and they could very well be right. She obviously has a lot of talent and Craig Williams sticks on her, which is a massive tick. 

11. Cuban Link (4) – $46
Jockey – Luke Currie
Trainer – Greg Eurell

While Cuban Link has also won back to back races, which is no small feat, they have been in much lower grades and the form doesn’t stack up. The colt she beat in a BM64 last time came out and lost another BM64 on Saturday, which doesn’t exactly scream out Group One form.

12. Achira (8) – $91
Jockey – Luke Nolen
Trainer – Lee & Cherie Curtis

While Achira opened at $151 and is now $91, which is a significant crunch, she is still the longest odds runner in the race. Her last start was a win over 1600m but that was in maiden class and she is now going up against the best fillies in the country. 

13. Fortunate Kiss (5) – $19
Jockey – Dean Holland
Trainer – Daniel Bowman

Fortunate Kiss came fifth in the Jim Moloney Stakes at Sandown, behind Queen Of Dubai and Zouzarella. Given she didn’t really make ground on Queen Of Dubai while Zouzarella ran right past her, it doesn’t look promising in this race. 

Final Word

In the last 15 years, seven favourites have won the Thousand Guineas, meaning the money typically follows the best horses and either Hinged or Zouzarella should be strongly considered. However, over the same period there were five fillies to win with double digit odds, so there is a place to look for some value.

Good form is key coming into the race, considering six of the last nine winners finished in the top three in their last race before the Thousand Guineas. However, that only eliminated three of the 13 fillies in the race. If we look into lead-up races, the Edward Manifold Stakes has produced eight winners of the Thousand Guineas since the turn of the century, with four fillies completing the double, making it the most successful lead up race over that time. 

That leaves us with Elusive Express and Yearning, with the former finishing 0.75L ahead of the latter in the Edward Manifold. Yearning is a nice proposition at odds of $26/$6.50 but will she be able to turn the tables on Elusive Express here? We are siding with the form and Elusive Express has plenty of it. She has finished in the top three in all four of her career runs and looked like she relished the rise in distance up to 1600m in the Edward Manifold. She is proven at the distance and won in the best form race for the Thousand Guineas and likely still has improvement to come! Given Sportsbet are offering bonus back up to 3rd and Elusive Express hasn’t missed a place in her career, you should feel comfortable about either getting a win at nice odds or getting a bonus back to use on the last, or saving it for the weekend!

Best Thousand Guineas Tip: Elusive Express – Win ($10)

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Thousand Guineas page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.

Tim is a massive follower of Horse Racing, not only in Australia but around the world. Whether it be the champions of the Spring and Autumn Carnivals or following the form lines throughout winter, Tim always has an eye on everything racing. He attempts to get to every Saturday meet he can, with Turnbull Stakes Day at the home of racing, Flemington, being a stand-out! If you want a tipster that follows all form lines, ratings, conditions and weights, not just favourites, Tim is your guy.

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