Tips Category: Turnbull Stakes

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2022 Turnbull Stakes Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

The $1m Turnbull Stakes, held over 2000m at Flemington, is regarded as one of the principal middle distance races on the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival calendar. Held under set weights plus penalties conditions, the 4YO and up feature is a major lead up race to the Cox Plate, with the winner of the Turnbull being eligible for a $1m bonus, providing they can take out both Group 1 features. Last year’s Turnbull winner, Incentivise, went on to win the Caulfield Cup and finish a gallant second in the Melbourne Cup later in the Spring.

Dabble has former French Group 2 winner, Gold Trip, favourite for this year’s Turnbull at $3.70, just ahead of Duais at $4.80. Deep Impact entire, Profondo, is the only other runner given a chance in terms of betting odds, currently listed at $10.

However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen and a capacity field will greet the starter on Saturday. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Turnbull Stakes along with The Shark’s best tips. 

1. Knights Order (14) – $21
Jockey – Jordan Childs 57.5kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Racing well this prep. Good win first up in the Chelmsford after taking advantage of a red hot on pace bias, before another strong effort last start at Randwick. Will find himself in front here again and can finish in the first few if he gets some soft sectionals mid race.

2. Duais (5) – $4.80
Jockey – Joshua Parr 57kg
Trainer – Edward Cummings

Got to the line well late first up in the Memsie before excuses were offered second up in the George Main. Gets out to 2000m now which is a big tick and she’s a G1 winner here at Flemington. Expect a bold showing third up.


3. Numerian (12) – $18
Jockey – John Allen 56.5kg
Trainer – Annabel Neasham

*This horse has since been scratched.*

Good run last start in the Chelmsford behind Knights Order after a freshen. Step up in trip is a bonus and he should be fitter for that run. Will land in the first half dozen and can finish in the prize money.

4. Profondo (7) – $10
Jockey – Craig Williams 56.5kg
Trainer – Richard Litt

Good return in the Winx Stakes before a couple of even efforts on wet ground. Steps up to 2000m and should get a gun run from the draw. Drier track is a massive tick and this looks the right race for him. Plenty to like.

5. Great House (15) – $20
Jockey – Brett Prebble 56kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Got back and hit the line strongly first up here at Flemington. Step up in trip is a bonus and races well here, but this is tougher. Will be finishing hard but place is preferred.

6. Smokin’ Romans (6) – $20
Jockey – Ethan Brown 55.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Good against the pattern two back at Moonee Valley before a strong win at Caulfield a fortnight ago. Should get a cosy run from the good gate and has a good winning record but will need to run a personal best to win this.

7. Milford (16) – $126
Jockey – Patrick Moloney 55.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Over raced first up at Flemington and dropped out. Gets to his pet trip now but will need luck from the outside gate and this is harder.

8. Inspirational Girl (13) – $14
Jockey – Jye McNeil 54.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien


Runner up first up at Moonee Valley, 4.5L behind Mr Brightside. Should strip fitter from that run but jumps straight to 2000m which is some query. Has a brilliant winning record and beat Zaaki second up last prep which keeps her in contention here.

9. Chapada (9) – $26
Jockey – Daniel Stackhouse 54.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Sound in two runs back this prep, the latest not far away at G3 level. Should be ready to put in a peak performance third up but this race is no easier than his last couple.

10. Alegron (2) – $13
Jockey – Damien Oliver 54.5kg
Trainer – James Cummings

*This horse has since been scratched.*

Good win last start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over this trip. Should get a soft run from the low draw with Oliver in the saddle and has to be respected here third up.

11. Young Werther (1) – $12
Jockey – Damian Lane 54.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

Good return here three weeks ago after a long spell. Should be greatly improved by that run and gets a significant weight drop. Won’t spend a penny in the run and can win if he gets the breaks at the right time.

12. Gold Trip (10) – $3.70F
Jockey – Jamie Kah 54.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Ran a big race fresh at Rosehill before an even effort last start at Caulfield over this trip. Looks well in at the weights here and gets in form jockey, Jamie Kah, in the saddle. Looks one of the main hopes but doesn’t win out of turn.

13. Crystal Pegasus (8) – $61
Jockey – Michael Dee 54.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Done little this preparation in two runs back from a spell. Dry track is the biggest positive here and is capable of running an improved race at big odds.

14. Luncies (3) – $81
Jockey – Harry Coffey 54.5kg
Trainer – Kris Lees

Hit the line well first up at Newcastle over 1500m. Added journey is a plus, as is the good gate, but not sure he’s good enough to win a G1.


15. Maximal (4) – $17
Jockey – Ben Melham 54.5kg
Trainer – John O’Shea

Got back and never threatened first up in the George Main. Ran well in Brisbane on dry tracks over 2000m+ and will be looking to get back to that form here second up. Each way hope.

16. Surefire (11) – $16
Jockey – Blake Shinn 54.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Ridden too close last start and whacked away gamely. Also accepted in the Metropolitan in Sydney but looks better suited here over the 2000m. Can hit back if ridden further back and has some luck from the draw.

17e. Hezashocker (17) – $31
Jockey – Daniel Moor 54.5kg
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

Good win here over this trip two back before another solid effort last start. Back up to 2000m suits and he’s building a nice record but this race looks a lot harder and the gate is a big minus.


Final Word

A full field of 16 starters will contest this year’s Turnbull Stakes. The weather forecast is good and the track should be in tip top order heading into Saturday.

Feel this is a big opportunity for boom horse, Profondo, to get back in the winner’s circle. His first up run proved he was back in good order before a couple of even efforts on wet ground. The dryer track here is a big plus for the 4YO entire and he’s drawn well with C Williams on. Plenty to like about his chances here.

G1 Australian Cup winner, Duais, should be ready to fire here third up. She ran some good late closing splits first up in the Memsie, before pulling up lame last start. The 2000m is right up her alley and she looks the one they have to hold out.

Former French galloper, Gold Trip, gets in well at the weights and should be nearing peak fitness. No jockey is riding better than Jamie Kah and the Flemington track should suit. The only knock is his winning record of one from twelve.

Young Werther will get a soft run in the race and was good first up, and Numerian is starting to find his feet in Australia and has to be included.

Turnbull Stakes TipLogo

4. Profondo – Each-way ($10/$3.30)

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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.

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2021 Turnbull Stakes Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

It is moving day in the racing world and the Group One Turnbull Stakes is the race that everybody’s eyes will be on. The 2000m handicapped race has just 10 horses meeting the starter but six have won at Group One level previously and will also relish the wet conditions that are expected. 

Many are dubbing this as a match race between Australia’s best horse, Verry Elleegant, and the boom up-and-comer, Incentivise. Sportsbet has the pair both priced under $3, as of Friday morning, with Colette at $8 and Sir Dragonet at $8.50 being the only other options under $20. 

Despite the disparity in the odds, it is an extremely talented field with Group One winners and Cups hopefuls throughout. The final field of 10 horses includes six from the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes, two from a 1700m handicap on the same day and then Chapada and Verry Elleegant who bring completely different formlines all together! Read on below to find out runner by runner preview of the 2021 Turnbull Stakes.

1. Sir Dragonet (10) – $8.50
Jockey – Ben Allen
Trainer – C Maher & D Eustace

The Cox Plate winner had a tremendous first up run in the Makybe Diva Stakes, reeling off the fastest closing sectionals of the race. He was just 0.4L 3rd to Incentivise three weeks ago but now meets him 1.5kg worse at the weights under the set weights and penalties conditions. However, he looks to have returned better than last Spring, when he won the Cox Plate, and any more rain will help his chances.

2. Explosive Jack (3) – $35
Jockey – John Allen
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Despite being over 5L off the leader trio when first up in the Makybe Diva, Explosive Jack’s run was impressive and he will take improvement from that. Expect a better run here as he rises through the distances and prepares for the Cups but will still need further and will perform better later in his prep.

3. Incentivise (6) – $2.80
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – Peter Moody

Well, what a win that was. Incentivise came out, controlled the race and showed fight to secure his first Group One victory. With the lack of speed projected for this race he looks set to control the race yet again, it is just whether he will be far enough ahead of Verry Elleegant and has the toughness to be able to fight her off in the finish. The lack of rain that has come over the last 48 hours, at least compared to what was expected, is a massive help for him too. 

4. Verry Elleegant (5) – $2.30
Jockey – Damian Lane
Trainer – Chris Waller

Australia’s best horse… for now? Chris Waller and connections chose this race, and the matchup with Incentivise, over a much easier Group Two race up in Sydney. That says a lot about what they want from the 9x Group One winner and that is to prove she is the best and add prestige to her resume. She would have hoped for more rain but will enjoy some give in the turf and she just needs Damian Lane to control her well in the early stages and put her in a spot to burst home late.

5. Johnny Get Angry (2) – $151
Jockey – Lachlan King
Trainer – Denis Pagan

Was never expected to do much first up in the Makybe Diva but was still a bit flat. Will obviously get better as he goes through the distances but is likely to finish towards the rear of the field. 

6. Chapada (8) – $126
Jockey – Daniel Stackhouse
Trainer – Michael Moroney

This seems to be a bit of a stretch for Chapada. While he is a relatively good stayer, proven by winning the 2400m Group Two Herbert Power this time last year, he is out of place in this race and will be another that finishes back in the field.

7. Persan (1) – $21
Jockey – Luke Currie
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Persan is just such an honest performer. Never seems to put in a bad race and since the start of last year’s Spring Carnival his worst return is fifth, and that was in the Melbourne Cup! While he might be outclassed in this race, especially when he will be better over further, he will give himself every chance and he should be in the top half of the field. 

8. Colette (7) – SCRATCHED
Jockey – Damien Oliver
Trainer – James Cummings

9. Mount Popa (6) – $46
Jockey – Fred Kersley
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

After winning the Mornington Cup earlier this year, the Caulfield Cup has always been set as Mount Popa’s grand final and this is his last hit out before that. He drops down in weight for this run and looks ready to go third up, but would have to improve to a completely new level to compete here. 

10. Young Werther (4) – $34
Jockey – Daniel Moor
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

Much like Mount Popa, the Caulfield Cup looks to be a race set out for Young Wether so expect him to be performing near his best in his race. While he hasn’t won a race of note, Young Wether always seems to perform consistently and look to be in races to the finish. Expect a big finish from him as he looks for the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, but won’t contest the finish here.  

Final Word

Where will the money go late? Does Verry Elleegant jump closer to odds on if the rain continues to pour in Melbourne or do punters hunt for the up-and-coming Incentivise to cause the upset. While the money isn’t everything, six of the last 10 favourites have won the Turnbull Stakes, indicating that it is a good place to start. 

While third up over 2000m on a potentially soft track is the ideal setup for Verry Elleegant, only one horse has been able to win the Turnbull Stakes more than once over the last 30 years, Winx in 2017 and 2018. Most punters were loving life with Winx’s back to back wins, unless you backed an outrageous promo like for her to win by 3+ lengths, but can Verry Elleegant follow in her footsteps and reward punters?

This does look to be a two horse race between her and Incentivise, but if any more rain comes, the more that Sir Dragonet get in the race. Sir Dragonet has come back in incredible order this prep and also performs better on soft tracks. It wouldn’t surprise if he put in a massive run, however, it is hard to split the top two in the market and that is the way we are betting. 


Sportsbet October 2nd Bonus Back 5th

Take the quinella with Verry Elleegant and Incentivise then sit back and watch two of the best we have to offer go at it in one of the best races on the calendar. No matter which way they finish, they will be the top two and you should go home a winner and with both Sportsbet and PointsBet being two of the only bookies that offer top tote on exoctics, you should get the most bang for your back by punting with them.

Best Turnbull Stakes Tip: Quinella: 3 (Incentivise), 4 (Verry Elleegant)

There is plenty more Group One racing happening this weekend! If you want to check out our Runner-By-Runner analysis of the Epsom Handicap, click here! If you want a preview of the talented three-year-olds contesting the Flight Stakes, click here! And lastly, if you want to see our analysis on The Metropolitan Handicap, click here!

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Turnbull Stakes page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.

Verry ElleegantAustralian OaksGroup 1 13 04 2019 WIN Randwick 6 922 734x460@2x

2020 Turnbull Stakes Preview, Odds & Tips

Turnbull Stakes Day is often a preview of what is to come during the Melbourne Cup Carnival, with the all-black type card full of runners geared up for a big spring.

Let’s take a look at each of the runners in the headline event, the Group 1 2020 Turnbull Stakes (2000m).

1 – Vow And Declare – $27

Resumed solidly enough in the Makybe Diva Stakes first up and should show improvement here with added fitness and up in trip. Is geared towards a Cup path, so he should just be here to keep ticking over for those marquee events later in the spring.

2 – Kings Will Dream – $18 ???

Last year’s winner of this race resumed well in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes and is a clear forgive in the Makybe Diva after Gatting disrupted his run. I think he’s right in this now third up and up to 2000, and goes in all exotics.

3 – Surprise Baby – $6.50 ??

Monster run first up in the Feehan Stakes over the mile, and will only be better now up in trip. Barrier 1 is a concern, though Willo can get them out of the gates quickly and settled midfield out of trouble, but will he throw him in the race and bang him up with the Melbourne Cup around the corner? Goes in all exotics.

4 – Warning – $31

Ran home well first up in the Makybe Diva Stakes and will be better here, though he usually takes a few runs to warm up and get to his top level. He’s a big price but would rather follow him in his next few runs.

5 – Dalasan – $18 ?

Gave punters a real look last start in the Makybe Diva Stakes but peaked late. Getting J Kah is a plus, and if they use the inside barrier, they could be in this for a long way and could run a place.

6 – Master Of Wine – $8 ???

Lots of ticks for this bloke. Was ridden upside down first up over 1400m in a hot tempo, and was improved last outing in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Now third up and finding a suitable distance and gate, I think he’s right in this and a big winning chance.

7 – King Of Leogrance – $14

Quality stayer who will no doubt feature throughout the spring. Short of his best distance and I think this will be too sharp for him first up.

8 – Aktau – $61

Has a Caulfield Cup start guaranteed thanks to his Mornington Cup win, and this looks like a tick over run for that event. Looks very tough for him up against this opposition.

9 – Verry Elleegant – $4.80 ???

Monster run first up in the Winx Stakes, and never had a chance in the George Main Stakes last start. If she’s at her best she’ll smash this field, if there’s no rain around then there is still a question mark on her dry track form. Obviously very tough to beat and goes in everything.

10 – Oceanex – $41

Has a Melbourne Cup spot secured thanks to her win in the Andrew Ramsden, and he’ll just be going around to get the miles in the legs for that event.

11 – Harlem – $34 ?

Knockout chance at big odds, and easy to throw in exotics. Track and trip specialist with his Australia Cup wins, and is now third up and has accounted himself well so far this prep.

12 – Finche – $9.50 ??

Quality stayer who is a bit one paced but very honest. Was solid when returning in the Chelmsford Stakes and has enough class to be in the finish here, even though Waller will have his eyes on the Cups later in the spring for this galloper.

13 – Django Freeman – $21 ?

Thought he had every chance of winning last start against The Chosen One, but should enjoy stepping up to 2000m and is a big watch.

14 – Superstorm – $7.50 ??

Obviously a strange platform for this race, stepping up from 1100m, to 1400m, and straight up to the 2000m here. Was held up and never had a chance to get out in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, and goes in all exotics.

15 – Toffee Tongue – $51 ?

Question marks over her good track form, but she’s finally stepping up to a suitable distance and is now third up. Will be watching keenly and will be following where she goes this spring.

Tip: 9-6-2-3

? = Must Watch
? = Big Winning Chance
?= Worth Including in Exotics

2020 Turnbull Stakes Odds

*Odds correct at time of posting this article

HorseWinPlace
1Vow And Declare (10)J: Damien Oliver 57.5kg T: D T O’brien$26.00$6.00Bet Now
2Kings Will Dream (8)J: Jye Mcneil 57.5kg T: C J Waller$15.00$4.50Bet Now
3Surprise Baby (1)J: Craig Williams 57.5kg T: P A Preusker$6.50$2.40Bet Now
4Warning (7)J: Billy Egan 56.5kg T: A & S Freedman$26.00$6.00Bet Now
5Dalasan (3)J: Jamie Kah 56.5kg T: L Macdonald & A Gluyas$16.00$4.80Bet Now
6Master Of Wine (4)J: Michael Rodd 56.5kg T: M, W & J Hawkes$8.00$2.80Bet Now
7King Of Leogrance (14)J: Damian Lane 56.5kg T: D T O’brien$13.00$4.00Bet Now
8Aktau (5)J: Daniel Moor 56.5kg T: M D Moroney$51.00$10.00Bet Now
9Verry Elleegant (9)J: Mark Zahra 55.5kg T: C J Waller$4.40$1.85Bet Now
10Oceanex (13)J: Dean Yendall 55.5kg T: M Price & M Kent Jnr$41.00$9.00Bet Now
11Harlem (11)J: Jamie Mott 54.5kg T: T Dabernig & B Hayes$34.00$7.50Bet Now
12Finche (15)J: Ben Melham 54.5kg T: C J Waller$9.00$3.00Bet Now
13Django Freeman (6)J: Luke Nolen 54.5kg T: Robert Hickmott$19.00$5.50Bet Now
14Superstorm (12)J: William Pike 53.5kg T: G & A Williams$7.50$2.60Bet Now
15Toffee Tongue (2)J: Michael Dee 53.5kg T: C J Waller$51.00$10.00Bet Now