The $1m Turnbull Stakes, held over 2000m at Flemington, is regarded as one of the principal middle distance races on the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival calendar. Held under set weights plus penalties conditions, the 4YO and up feature is a major lead up race to the Cox Plate, with the winner of the Turnbull being eligible for a $1m bonus, providing they can take out both Group 1 features. Last year’s Turnbull winner, Incentivise, went on to win the Caulfield Cup and finish a gallant second in the Melbourne Cup later in the Spring.
Dabble has former French Group 2 winner, Gold Trip, favourite for this year’s Turnbull at $3.70, just ahead of Duais at $4.80. Deep Impact entire, Profondo, is the only other runner given a chance in terms of betting odds, currently listed at $10.
However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen and a capacity field will greet the starter on Saturday. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Turnbull Stakes along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Knights Order (14) – $21
Jockey – Jordan Childs 57.5kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Racing well this prep. Good win first up in the Chelmsford after taking advantage of a red hot on pace bias, before another strong effort last start at Randwick. Will find himself in front here again and can finish in the first few if he gets some soft sectionals mid race.
2. Duais (5) – $4.80
Jockey – Joshua Parr 57kg
Trainer – Edward Cummings
Got to the line well late first up in the Memsie before excuses were offered second up in the George Main. Gets out to 2000m now which is a big tick and she’s a G1 winner here at Flemington. Expect a bold showing third up.
Flemington track update with Liam O’Keeffe ahead of @tabcomau Turnbull Stakes Day. #Flemington pic.twitter.com/Veu259cTii
— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) September 29, 2022
3. Numerian (12) – $18
Jockey – John Allen 56.5kg
Trainer – Annabel Neasham
*This horse has since been scratched.*
Good run last start in the Chelmsford behind Knights Order after a freshen. Step up in trip is a bonus and he should be fitter for that run. Will land in the first half dozen and can finish in the prize money.
4. Profondo (7) – $10
Jockey – Craig Williams 56.5kg
Trainer – Richard Litt
Good return in the Winx Stakes before a couple of even efforts on wet ground. Steps up to 2000m and should get a gun run from the draw. Drier track is a massive tick and this looks the right race for him. Plenty to like.
5. Great House (15) – $20
Jockey – Brett Prebble 56kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Got back and hit the line strongly first up here at Flemington. Step up in trip is a bonus and races well here, but this is tougher. Will be finishing hard but place is preferred.
6. Smokin’ Romans (6) – $20
Jockey – Ethan Brown 55.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Good against the pattern two back at Moonee Valley before a strong win at Caulfield a fortnight ago. Should get a cosy run from the good gate and has a good winning record but will need to run a personal best to win this.
7. Milford (16) – $126
Jockey – Patrick Moloney 55.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney
Over raced first up at Flemington and dropped out. Gets to his pet trip now but will need luck from the outside gate and this is harder.
8. Inspirational Girl (13) – $14
Jockey – Jye McNeil 54.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
Plenty of Group 1 action this weekend @royalrandwick & @FlemingtonVRC. See below a preview of our runners in the Flight Stakes, Epsom, Metropolitan & Turnbull Stakes. ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️@SkyRacingAU @7horseracing @Racing pic.twitter.com/G5zoGM7mx3
— Chris Waller Racing (@cwallerracing) September 28, 2022
Runner up first up at Moonee Valley, 4.5L behind Mr Brightside. Should strip fitter from that run but jumps straight to 2000m which is some query. Has a brilliant winning record and beat Zaaki second up last prep which keeps her in contention here.
9. Chapada (9) – $26
Jockey – Daniel Stackhouse 54.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney
Sound in two runs back this prep, the latest not far away at G3 level. Should be ready to put in a peak performance third up but this race is no easier than his last couple.
10. Alegron (2) – $13
Jockey – Damien Oliver 54.5kg
Trainer – James Cummings
*This horse has since been scratched.*
Good win last start in the Kingston Town at Randwick over this trip. Should get a soft run from the low draw with Oliver in the saddle and has to be respected here third up.
11. Young Werther (1) – $12
Jockey – Damian Lane 54.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
Good return here three weeks ago after a long spell. Should be greatly improved by that run and gets a significant weight drop. Won’t spend a penny in the run and can win if he gets the breaks at the right time.
12. Gold Trip (10) – $3.70F
Jockey – Jamie Kah 54.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Ran a big race fresh at Rosehill before an even effort last start at Caulfield over this trip. Looks well in at the weights here and gets in form jockey, Jamie Kah, in the saddle. Looks one of the main hopes but doesn’t win out of turn.
13. Crystal Pegasus (8) – $61
Jockey – Michael Dee 54.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Done little this preparation in two runs back from a spell. Dry track is the biggest positive here and is capable of running an improved race at big odds.
14. Luncies (3) – $81
Jockey – Harry Coffey 54.5kg
Trainer – Kris Lees
Hit the line well first up at Newcastle over 1500m. Added journey is a plus, as is the good gate, but not sure he’s good enough to win a G1.
Name the Turnbull Stakes winner 👇 pic.twitter.com/hH3NycrrTB
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 28, 2022
15. Maximal (4) – $17
Jockey – Ben Melham 54.5kg
Trainer – John O’Shea
Got back and never threatened first up in the George Main. Ran well in Brisbane on dry tracks over 2000m+ and will be looking to get back to that form here second up. Each way hope.
16. Surefire (11) – $16
Jockey – Blake Shinn 54.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Ridden too close last start and whacked away gamely. Also accepted in the Metropolitan in Sydney but looks better suited here over the 2000m. Can hit back if ridden further back and has some luck from the draw.
17e. Hezashocker (17) – $31
Jockey – Daniel Moor 54.5kg
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Good win here over this trip two back before another solid effort last start. Back up to 2000m suits and he’s building a nice record but this race looks a lot harder and the gate is a big minus.
The barriers are locked in for the @tabcomau Turnbull Stakes! pic.twitter.com/6WYK91y7Of
— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) September 28, 2022
Final Word
A full field of 16 starters will contest this year’s Turnbull Stakes. The weather forecast is good and the track should be in tip top order heading into Saturday.
Feel this is a big opportunity for boom horse, Profondo, to get back in the winner’s circle. His first up run proved he was back in good order before a couple of even efforts on wet ground. The dryer track here is a big plus for the 4YO entire and he’s drawn well with C Williams on. Plenty to like about his chances here.
G1 Australian Cup winner, Duais, should be ready to fire here third up. She ran some good late closing splits first up in the Memsie, before pulling up lame last start. The 2000m is right up her alley and she looks the one they have to hold out.
Former French galloper, Gold Trip, gets in well at the weights and should be nearing peak fitness. No jockey is riding better than Jamie Kah and the Flemington track should suit. The only knock is his winning record of one from twelve.
Young Werther will get a soft run in the race and was good first up, and Numerian is starting to find his feet in Australia and has to be included.
Turnbull Stakes Tip
4. Profondo – Each-way ($10/$3.30)
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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.
