Turnbull Stakes 2021

Turnbull Stakes 2021

The Shark is your one stop shop for everything related to the Turnbull Stakes, we cover all the latest information in relation to Turnbull Stakes tips, betting, odds, field, results and more. Make sure you read on below to find out all the information you need about the Turnbull Stakes.

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Turnbull Stakes Quick Facts

In a hurry? We’ve listed all the quick facts that you need to know about the Turnbull Stakes:

DateSaturday, 1st October, 2022
Start TimeTBA
RacecourseFlemington Racecourse, Melbourne, Australia
Distance2,000 metres
GradeGroup 1
Prizemoney$1,000,000

Turnbull Stakes Introduction

The Turnbull Stakes is a Group One race over 2,000m and is held at Flemington Racecourse. The race is for horses aged four or older, that aren’t maidens and is run under set weights & penalties conditions, with a total prizemoney pool of $1,000,000. The 2022 Turnbull Stakes will be held on Saturday, October 1st and was won by Incentivise in 2021.

The 2000m Group One Turnbull Stakes begins the serious lead-up to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and is the last Group One held at Flemington until Melbourne Cup week. The premier event on the card at Flemington, the Turnbull Stakes shares Saturday, October 2nd with Epsom Handicap day in Sydney, which boasts three Group One races.

Not only is there $1M on offer in prizemoney, increased from $500,000 in 2021, but the winner gets ballot-exemption entry into the Caulfield Cup. This is the path that Verry Elleegant took in 2020, becoming just the fifth horse to complete the Turnbull Stakes/Caulfield Cup double, while Incentivise will attempt to do the same after winning the Turnbull Stakes in 2021.

Given that the Turnbull Stakes is historically a main lead up race for the Caulfield Cup, we often see some of the best middle-distance stayers contest the race on their way to greater heights later in the Spring Carnival.

The Sign won the first running of the Turnbull Stakes in 1865 and since then some of the best to ever do it have won the race. Wakeful, Whittier, Ajax, Comic Court, Galilee, Vo Rogue, Let’s Elope, Sunline, Northerly, Zipping, Makybe Diva and Winx are just some of the incredible horses to win the race, most recently won by the exciting new kid on the block, Incentivise.

Given the 2021 race has just happened and we now have another year to wait, the 2022 field is not set! Be sure to read on below to get all of the information you need to know on the history and formlines for the race, or alternatively you can chat to The Shark to get the best tips for every day!

Turnbull Stakes Tips 2022

The Turnbull Stakes is an Australian Group One race held at the famous Flemington Racecourse, bringing some of the best horses from the country and the globe, attracting the attention of many Aussies who like to have a casual punt. Our expert tipsters will put together a short list of Turnbull Stakes tips to look out for in the lead up to the big race.

Given nominations are yet to be accepted for the 2022 Turnbull Stakes, it is hard to provide any updates at this time. However, as the Spring Carnival gets going, the horses that are targeting this race will become clearer and we will be able to provide you with updates. If you are after Turnbull Stakes horse tips, then we will keep you informed with which horses are likely to be running, so you can place your futures bets with confidence!

We will list The Sharks’ Turnbull Stakes best tips for the race this year closer to the time of the race. Make sure you check back on this page for updates!

Turnbull Stakes Tips From Experts

Our tips are not out for the Turnbull Stakes in 2022 as it is too far out from the event. But the good news is that when the final field for the Turnbull Stakes is announced, we will provide guidance on each and every runner in the 2022 Turnbull Stakes.

You will find all this information below, when it becomes available. Stay tuned, or alternatively you can chat to The Shark to get the best tips for every day!

Turnbull Stakes Betting 2022

When beginning to look at Turnbull Stakes betting, there are a lot of important factors to consider. Make sure you have a read on below before you place your bets:

Is Previous Form in the Turnbull Stakes a Good Indicator of Future Success?

Outside of Winx, who won in both 2017 & 2018, there hasn’t been a horse able to win the Turnbull Stakes more than once in the last 30 years. That indicates that it may not be the best method of selecting a bet, just by looking at who had won previously.

However, when looking at horses who were able to finish in the placings more than once, five horses have been able to do this over the last 11 years. December Draw won in 2011 before coming 3rd in 2012 and following a similar pattern, Hartnell won in 2016 before coming 3rd in 2019.

Winx was the clear outlier, winning in 2017 and 2018, however Kings Will Dream was able to reverse the trend, finishing 3rd behind Winx in 2018 before going on to win the event in 2019. Finche is the most recent of the five, coming 2nd in 2019 before coming 3rd in 2020 behind Verry Elleegant.

Given that over the last six years, four horses have been able to finish in the top three more than once, it may be a good idea to see if horses have been competitive in the race previously. In saying that, the top three from the 2021 Turnbull Stakes hadn’t previously contested the race.

Should I Bet On The Favourite in the Turnbull Stakes?

History indicates that favourites typically do quite well in the Turnbull Stakes, with six of the last 11 favourites coming out on top. However, just because they are favourites doesn’t necessarily mean that they will have short, almost unbackable odds.

Just four horses have won when jumping odds-on, December Draw at $2.15 in 2011, Hartnell at $1.90 in 2016 and then Winx at $1.20 and $1.10 in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The two other favourites to win, Green Moon in 2012 and Verry Elleegant in 2020, had much nicer odds for punters, starting at $4 and $5 respectively.

The other five years where favourites were unable to finish on top, the winners were priced at $8.50, $11 – twice and a massive $26, in 2013 when Happy Trails won as equal-ninth favourite. Incentivise is a bit of an outlier, not jumping as favourite in 2021 but winning at a short price of $2.70.

While there have been some winners with big odds over the years, six of the last 11 favourites have ended up winning the Turnbull Stakes and that is a great indicator when looking ahead to this year’s event.

Formlines Heading into the Turnbull Stakes

From 2016-2020, each of the five winners of the Turnbull Stakes has come into the race either third or fourth up, with one clear race a good starting point. Each of the five winners contested the G1 Winx Stakes (was the G2 Warwick Stakes in 2016-17) first up.

However, Incentivise bucked the trend in 2021 when winning second up and not having contested the Winx Stakes to start his prep. He ran first up in the 1600m Makybe Diva Stakes, winning that before going to the Turnbull and winning again.

Age

The age of horses is often a clear indicator of success in races and when looking at potential Turnbull Stakes best bets that is definitely the case. Five-year-olds have had the clear advantage, winning six of the last 11 runnings of the Turnbull.

Each of the last three winners of the Turnbull Stakes, Kings Will Dream, Verry Elleegant and Incentivise, won the race in their five-year-old Spring preparations, along with Hartnell (2016), Green Moon (2012) and December Draw (2011). Horses aged four and six are next best with two wins a piece while Winx won as a seven-year-old in 2018.

Here is a table indicating the ages of winners of the Turnbull Stakes since the 2011 edition:

Age# of Wins
42
56
62
71

Weight

Given that the Turnbull Stakes is run under set weights and penalties, there is quite a variety of weights carried to victory over the last 10 years. With Incentivise winning whilst carrying 57.5kg, that weight is not the most common, winning three times over the last 11 years. Those carrying 54.5kg, 55.5kg and 57kg have two wins each while those carrying 53.5kg and 56.5kg having one win each over that time.

Gender

With Winx having run in the race for two years, it slightly skews the data. She accounted for two of the four wins by mares over the last 11 years. That is the just behind geldings, who have now had five winners over that time with Incentivise winning in 2021.

Based on our data that we have analysed so far, your Turnbull Stakes best bet is to look for a five-year-old gelding. Ideally they have run in the G1 Winx Stakes first up and is either third or fourth up in their preparation, however if they are good enough then it may not matter, like Incentivise showed in 2021. Favourites have won six of the last 11, so be sure to look at where the money is going and how well your Turnbull Stakes betting tips have gone in the lead up.

Turnbull Stakes Best Bets

Our tips are not out for the Turnbull Stakes in 2022 as it is too far out from the event. But the good news is that when the final field for the Turnbull Stakes is announced, we will provide guidance on each and every runner in the 2022 Turnbull Stakes.

You will find all this information below, when it becomes available. Stay tuned, or alternatively you can chat to The Shark to get the best tips for every day!

Turnbull Stakes Odds 2022

Long before the Turnbull Stakes field is officially announced – online bookies will open early markets, or all-in markets, for Turnbull Stakes betting. This is prime time to bet on your favourite horse, as you might be able to bet on strong contenders for the 2022 Turnbull Stakes at double-digit odds.

Once the bookies release the 2022 Turnbull Stakes odds, they will obviously fluctuate frequently in the lead up to the race, especially when we have a better idea of which horses will be targeting the race and their form leading into the race.

Punting early on these markets can find you a favourite at prices of $10 or more, which will retain you a much higher return on investment. However, there is increased risk with doing this and you should be well aware.

Depending on when you place a futures bet on the 2022 Turnbull Stakes, your horse may not even run but you won’t get your money back, occurring when the market is ‘All-In’ or closer to the starting date. If you are betting when it says ‘Before Noms’, you have the security of receiving your money back if your horse doesn’t run.

Turnbull Stakes Field 2022

Given that the Turnbull Stakes is the one of the main lead up races for both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, we often get some of the best middle-distance stayers from not only Australia, but around the world competing in the race.

Given there is ballot-exemption entry into the Caulfield Cup, connections often get their horses primed for this race, hoping to win their way into one of the richest and highest quality races on the world racing calendar.

The final 2022 Turnbull Stakes field will be determined at the barrier draw, which will be on Wednesday, September 28th and is sure to have some of the best horses lining up in the event.

With the 2022 Turnbull Stakes field yet to be determined, let’s take a look back at the 2021 field, headlined by 2020 winner Verry Elleegant, 2020 Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet and the 2021 Turnbull Stakes winner, Incentivse:

HorseBarrierJockeyTrainer
1. Sir Dragonet (59kg)9Ben AllenC Maher & D Eustace
2. Explosive Jack (58kg)3John AllenC Maher & D Eustace
3. Incentivise (57.5kg)6Brett PrebblePeter Moody
4. Verry Elleegant (57kg)5Damian LaneChris Waller
5. Johnny Get Angry (56.5kg)2Lachlan KingDenis Pagan
6. Chapada (56.5kg)7Daniel StackhouseMichael Moroney
7. Persan (55.5kg)1Luke CurrieC Maher & D Eustace
8. Colette (SCR)James Cummings
9. Mount Popa (54.5kg)8Fred KersleyM, W & J Hawkes
10. Young Werther (53.5kg)4Daniel MoorDanny O’Brien

Turnbull Stakes Results 2022

With the race yet to be run, we still don’t know what the Turnbull Stakes results for 2022 will be! However, check back in after the race and we will have all of the information on how the big race went and what the results are.

Looking back at the 2021 race, Incentivise was able to jump, lead and win despite the race being run at a blistering tempo throughout. He finished just half a length in front of the fast-finishing Young Werther, with a 1.75L gap back to Chapada in third, with last year’s winner and champion mare Verry Elleegant finishing fourth, 3.5L off the pace.

Jumping from barrier six of nine, Brett Prebble had to put a bit of work into Incentivise to get up to the front on the rails and then had Mount Popa on his outside ensuring the tempo was kept high. He showed incredible fight to keep the lead at the pace the race was being run and then find another gear when contested in the straight.

Young Werther potentially had the run of the race flashing home for second and looks primed to extend up in distance for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

You’ve read the words, now watch the video! Have a squiz below at the 2021 Turnbull Stakes race:

Here are the full results from the Turnbull Stakes in 2021:

FinishHorseJockeyLengths
1st3. Incentivise (6)Brett Prebble
2nd10. Young Werther (4)Daniel Moor0.5L
3rd6. Chapada (7)Daniel Stackhouse1.75L
4th4. Verry Elleegant (5)Damian Lane3.5L
5th2. Explosive Jack (3)John Allen3.9L
6th1. Sir Dragonet (9)Ben Allen5.15L
7th7. Persan (1)Luke Currie5.25L
8th9. Mount Popa (8)Fred Kersley20.25L
9th5. Johnny Get Angry (2)Lachlan King29.25L

Turnbull Stakes Winners

The results for the upcoming Turnbull Stakes are not yet available, but in the meantime, you can have a look below at all the recent past winners:

YearWinnerSecondThird
2022TBATBATBA
2021IncentiviseYoung WertherChapada
2020Verry ElleegantToffee TongueFinche
2019Kings Will DreamFincheHartnell
2018WinxYoungstarKings Will Dream
2017WinxVentura StormHumidor
2016HartnellJamekaTally
2015PrefermentRoyal DescentSet Square
2014Lucia ValentinaLidariBrambles
2013Happy TrailsPuissance De LuneFawkner
2012Green MoonSevilleDecember Draw
2011December DrawGlass HarmoniumPlaying God
2010ZippingShockingShoot Out

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