It's a massive card at Flemington with some outstanding Group racing lined up on Turnbull Stakes Day, as we head into the business end of the spring.The sun is out in Melbourne and it should be a Good 4 track, with the rail out 7 metres, which ha...
In a hurry? We’ve listed all the quick facts that you need to know about the Turnbull Stakes:
|Date||Saturday, 2nd October, 2021|
|Racecourse||Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne, Australia|
The Turnbull Stakes is a Group One race over 2,000m and is held at Flemington Racecourse. The race is for horses aged four or older, that aren’t maidens and is run under set weights & penalties conditions, with a total prizemoney pool of $1,000,000. The 2021 Turnbull Stakes will be held on Saturday, October 2nd and was won by Verry Elleegant in 2020.
The 2000m Group One Turnbull Stakes begins the serious lead-up to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and is the last Group One held at Flemington until Melbourne Cup week. The premier event on the card at Flemington, the Turnbull Stakes shares Saturday, October 2nd with Epsom Handicap day in Sydney, which boasts three Group One races.
Not only is there $1M on offer in prizemoney, increased from $500,000 this year, but the winner gets ballot-exemption entry into the Caulfield Cup. This is the path that Verry Elleegant took last year, becoming just the fifth horse to complete the Turnbull Stakes/Caulfield Cup double.
Given that the Turnbull Stakes is historically a main lead up race for the Caulfield Cup, we often see some of the best middle-distance stayers contest the race on their way to greater heights later in the Spring Carnival.
The Sign won the first running of the Turnbull Stakes in 1865 and since then some of the best to ever do it have won the race. Wakeful, Whittier, Ajax, Comic Court, Galilee, Vo Rogue, Let’s Elope, Sunline, Northerly, Zipping, Makybe Diva and Winx are just some of the incredible horses to win the race, most recently won by the brilliant mare, Verry Elleegant.
Given the race is still weeks away and the field is not set, we are yet to come up with our Turnbull Stakes tips for 2021, but be sure to read on below to get all of the information you need to know on the history and formlines for the race.
The Turnbull Stakes is an Australian Group One race held at the famous Flemington Racecourse, bringing some of the best horses from the country and the globe, and attracts the attention of many Aussies who like to have a casual punt. Our expert tipsters will put together a short list of Turnbull Stakes tips to look out for in the leadup to the big race.
Given nominations are yet to be accepted for the 2021 Turnbull Stakes, it is hard to provide any updates at this time. However, as the Spring Carnival gets going, the horses that are targeting this race will become clearer and we will be able to provide you with updates. If you are after Turnbull Stakes horse tips, then we will keep you informed with which horses are likely to be running, so you can place your futures bets with confidence!
Looking ahead to this year’s running of the Turnbull Stakes, impressive gelding Zaaki is on top of the odds, priced as $4 favourite. His Queensland Winter Carnival is widely spoken about, dominating nearly every field he contested and putting him in the same conversation as Verry Elleegant, who is a narrow second favourite, priced at $6. The Waller trained mare had an exceptional five-year-old season, winning this race last year, as well as the Caulfield Cup and Ranvet Stakes.
Behind those two class runners, we see some interesting horses line up at $12 odds. Colette seems to still be searching for her optimal distance, however has proven she has the class to win good races, especially on the wet. Incentivise is currently favourite for both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, so he may choose to follow Verry Elleegant’s path from last year and run in this race in the lead up.
The third horse priced at $12 is Sir Dragonet, winner of the 2020 Cox Plate and G1 Tancred Stakes. Like Colette, he prefers a bit of give in the turf, but his Tancred win, albeit a weak Group One field, was on a Good4.
We will list The Sharks’ Turnbull Stakes best tips for the race this year closer to the time of the race. Make sure you check back on this page for updates!
Our tips are not out for the Turnbull Stakes in 2021 as it is too far out from the event. But the good news is that when the final field for the Turnbull Stakes is announced, we will provide guidance on each and every runner in the 2021 Turnbull Stakes.
You will find all this information below, when it becomes available. Stay tuned!
When beginning to look at Turnbull Stakes betting, there are a lot of important factors to consider. Make sure you have a read on below before you place your bets:
Is Previous Form in the Turnbull Stakes a Good Indicator of Future Success?
Outside of Winx, who won in both 2017 & 2018, there hasn’t been a horse able to win the Turnbull Stakes more than once in the last 30 years. That indicates that it may not be the best method of selecting a bet, just by looking at who had won previously.
However, when looking at horses who were able to finish in the placings more than once, five horses have been able to do this over the last 10 years. December Draw won in 2011 before coming 3rd in 2012 and following a similar pattern, Hartnell won in 2016 before coming 3rd in 2019.
Winx was the clear outlier, winning in 2017 and 2018, however Kings Will Dream was able to reverse the trend, finishing 3rd behind Winx in 2018 before going on to win the event in 2019. Finche is the most recent of the five, coming 2nd in 2019 before coming 3rd last year behind Verry Elleegant.
Given that over the last five years, four horses have been able to finish in the top three more than once, it may be a good idea to see if horses have been competitive in the race previously. In saying that, both Verry Elleegant and Toffee Tongue, who finished 1st and 2nd respectively in 2020, had never contested the race previously and were able to perform at such a high standard.
Should I Bet On The Favourite in the Turnbull Stakes?
History indicates that favourites typically do quite well in the Turnbull Stakes, with six of the last 10 favourites coming out on top. However, just because they are favourites doesn’t necessarily mean that they will have short, almost unbackable odds.
Just four horses have won when jumping odds-on, December Draw at $2.15 in 2011, Hartnell at $1.90 in 2016 and then Winx at $1.20 and $1.10 in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The two other favourites to win, Green Moon in 2012 and Verry Elleegant in 2020, had much nicer odds for punters, starting at $4 and $5 respectively.
The other four years, where favourites were unable to finish on top, saw winners priced at $8.50, $11 – twice and a massive $26, in 2013 when Happy Trails won as equal-ninth favourite.
While there have been some winners with big odds over the years, including $5f and $11 over the last two years, six of the last 10 favourites have ended up winning the Turnbull Stakes and that is a great indicator when looking ahead to this year’s event.
Formlines Heading into the Turnbull Stakes
Over the last five years, each of the winners of the Turnbull Stakes has come into the race either third or fourth up, with one clear race a good starting point. Each of the five winners contested the G1 Winx Stakes (was the G2 Warwick Stakes in 2016-17) first up.
Hartnell in 2016 and Winx in 2017 then went to the G2 Chelmsford Stakes second up before having another third up run prior to the Turnbull Stakes, however their third up race differed. Hartnell went on to win the G2 Hill Stakes whereas Winx went on to win the G1 George Main, with the pair then going on to the Turnbull.
Winx in 2018 and Verry Elleegant in 2020 went to the G1 George Main Stakes second up before contesting the Turnbull third up, while Kings Will Dream came down to Melbourne earlier than the rest, contesting the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes second up and then going on to win the Turnbull.
Four of those five horses won at least one of their lead-up runs, however Kings Will Dream was the outlier. He finished 5th in the Winx Stakes and 8th in the Makybe Diva before winning the Turnbull Stakes. Funnily, he then went on to compete in two more races and was unable to win either, with the Turnbull being his only victory for the preparation.
The age of horses is often a clear indicator of success in races and when looking at potential Turnbull Stakes best bets that is definitely the case. Five-year-olds have had the clear advantage, winning five of the last 10 runnings of the Turnbull.
Each of the last two winners of the Turnbull Stakes, Kings Will Dream and Verry Elleegant, won the race in their five-year-old Spring preparations, along with Hartnell (2016), Green Moon (2012) and December Draw (2011). Horses aged four and six are next best with two wins a piece while Winx won as a seven-year-old in 2018.
Here is a table indicating the ages of winners of the Turnbull Stakes since the 2011 edition:
|Age||# of Wins|
Given that the Turnbull Stakes is run under set weights and penalties, there is quite a variety of weights carried to victory over the last 10 years. No weight has had more than two winners over this time, with those carrying 54.5kg, 55.5kg, 57kg and 57.5kg having two wins each while those carrying 53.5kg and 56.5kg having one win each over that time. Verry Elleegant, with Mark Zahra on board, was charged with carrying 55.5kg in last year’s Turnbull Stakes and did so incredibly, winning the 2,000m classic.
With Winx having run in the race for two years, it slightly skews the data. She accounted for two of the four wins by mares over the last 10 years. That is the equal-most along with geldings, who have had four winners over that time, but given they haven’t had an all-time legendary mare to skew their data, that may be a better indicator of success.
Based on our data that we have analysed so far, your Turnbull Stakes best bet is to look for a five-year-old that ran in the G1 Winx Stakes first up and is either third or fourth up in their preparation. Favourites have won six of the last 10, so be sure to look at where the money is going and how well your Turnbull Stakes betting tips have gone in the lead up.
Our Turnbull Stakes best bets for 2021 are not out just yet, make sure you keep an eye out on this page as we will provide more details about our best bets when the final field is announced.
You will find our best bets below once available. Stay tuned!
Long before the Turnbull Stakes field is officially announced – online bookies will open early markets, or all-in markets, for Turnbull Stakes betting. This is prime time to bet on your favourite horse, as you might be able to bet on strong contenders for the 2021 Turnbull Stakes at double-digit odds.
Once the bookies release the 2021 Turnbull Stakes odds, they will obviously fluctuate frequently in the lead up to the race, especially when we have a better idea of which horses will be targeting the race and their form leading into the race.
Punting early on these markets can find you a favourite at prices of $10 or more, which will retain you a much higher return on investment. However, there is increased risk with doing this and you should be well aware.
Depending on when you place a futures bet on the 2021 Turnbull Stakes, your horse may not even run but you won’t get your money back, occurring when the market is ‘All-In’ or closer to the starting date. If you are betting when it says ‘Before Noms’, you have the security of receiving your money back if your horse doesn’t run.
The Turnbull Stakes odds are already out for 2021, but make sure to compare these prices between different bookies. Although they usually agree on a horse’s price, you may stumble across much higher odds – with an obvious higher profit involved.
The below table shows the current 2021 Turnbull Stakes odds as of late September, courtesy of Sportsbet:
|Think It Over||$13|
Given that the Turnbull Stakes is the one of the main lead up races for both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, we often get some of the best middle-distance stayers from not only Australia, but around the world competing in the race.
Given there is ballot-exemption entry into the Caulfield Cup, connections often get their horses primed for this race, hoping to win their way into one of the richest and highest quality races on the world racing calendar.
The final Turnbull Stakes field will be determined at the barrier draw, which will be on Wednesday, September 29th and is sure to have some of the best horses lining up in the event.
With the 2021 Turnbull Stakes field yet to be determined, let’s take a look back at the 2020 field, headlined by winner Verry Elleegant:
|1. Vow and Declare (57.5kg)||10||Damien Oliver||Danny O’Brien|
|2. King Will Dream (IRE) (57.5kg)||8||Jye McNeil||Chris Waller|
|3. Surprise Baby (NZ) (57.5kg)||1||Craig Williams||Paul Preusker|
|4. Warning (56.5kg)||7||Billy Egan||A & S Freedman|
|5. Dalasan (56.5kg)||3||Jamie Kah||L Macdonald & A Gluyas|
|6. Master of Wine (GER) (56.5kg)||4||Michael Rodd||M, W & J Hawkes|
|7. King of Leogrance (FR) (56.5kg)||14||Damian Lane||Danny O’Brien|
|8. Aktau (GB) (56.5kg)||5||Daniel Moor||Michael Moroney|
|9. Very Elleegant (NZ) (55.5kg)||9||Mark Zahra||Chris Waller|
|10. Oceanex (NZ) (55.5kg)||13||Dean Yendall||M Price & M Kent (Jnr)|
|11. Harlem (GB) (54.5kg)||11||Jamie Mott||T Dabernig & B Hayes|
|12. Finche (GB) (54.5kg)||15||Ben Melham||Chris Waller|
|13. Django Freeman (GER) (54.5kg)||6||Luke Nolen||Robert Hickmott|
|14. Superstorm (53.5kg)||12||William Pike||G & A Williams|
|15. Toffee Tongue (NZ) (53.5kg)||2||Michael Dee||Chris Waller|
With the race yet to be run, we still don’t know what the Turnbull Stakes results for 2021 will be! However, check back in after the race and we will have all of the information on how the big race went and what the results are.
Looking back at the 2020 race, Verry Elleegant came out on top, finishing 0.1 lengths ahead of Toffee Tongue, who was just 0.1 lengths ahead of Finche. Jumping from barrier nine, the mare was able to settle just off midfield but was able to ride the back of Finche, who made a move three wide with 1200m to go.
This gave Mark Zahra an opportunity to get a nice ride up to the front half of the field, where Verry Elleegant’s incredible turn of foot allowed her storm down the outside for victory.
Toffee Tongue settled in the third pairing on the fence for the entire trip, getting a nice protected run throughout. Where most other horses attempted to peel wide and look for a gap to burst through, Michael Dee waited for a gap to open up along with rails and was able to continue running straight down the inside to narrowly finish 2nd.
Of the three horses to finish in the placings, Finche had the toughest run. He settled around midfield and due to his unusual gait and running pattern, he had to make a move early, forced to go three wide to move up. As mentioned, this allowed Verry Elleegant to follow him around the bend and while he couldn’t quite finish the job, for Finche to finish just 0.2 lengths off the win was quite a valiant effort.
You’ve read the words, now watch the video! Have a squiz below at the 2020 Turnbull Stakes race:
Here are the full results from the Turnbull Stakes in 2020:
|1st||9. Very Elleegant (NZ) (55.5kg)||Mark Zahra||–|
|2nd||15. Toffee Tongue (NZ) (53.5kg)||Michael Dee||0.1L|
|3rd||12. Finche (GB) (54.5kg)||Ben Melham||0.2L|
|4th||5. Dalasan (56.5kg)||Jamie Kah||0.4L|
|5th||6. Master of Wine (GER) (56.5kg)||Michael Rodd||0.8L|
|6th||4. Warning (56.5kg)||Billy Egan||1L|
|7th||14. Superstorm (53.5kg)||William Pike||2L|
|8th||11. Harlem (GB) (54.5kg)||Jamie Mott||2.2L|
|9th||3. Surprise Baby (NZ) (57.5kg)||Craig Williams||2.4L|
|10th||2. King Will Dream (IRE) (57.5kg)||Jye McNeil||2.5L|
|11th||13. Django Freeman (GER) (54.5kg)||Luke Nolen||2.7L|
|12th||1. Vow and Declare (57.5kg)||Damien Oliver||2.8L|
|13th||7. King of Leogrance (FR) (56.5kg)||Damian Lane||4.5L|
|14th||10. Oceanex (NZ) (55.5kg)||Dean Yendall||4.6L|
|15th||8. Aktau (GB) (56.5kg)||Daniel Moor||14.5L|
The results for the upcoming Turnbull Stakes are not yet available, but in the meantime, you can have a look below at all the recent past winners:
|2020||Verry Elleegant||Toffee Tongue||Finche|
|2019||Kings Will Dream||Finche||Hartnell|
|2018||Winx||Youngstar||Kings Will Dream|
|2015||Preferment||Royal Descent||Set Square|
|2013||Happy Trails||Puissance De Lune||Fawkner|
|2012||Green Moon||Seville||December Draw|
|2011||December Draw||Glass Harmonium||Playing God|