The Victoria Derby, run over 2500m at Flemington Racecourse, is the premier three year old staying race on the Australian racing calendar. The $2m set weights contest is a true test of stamina and has been won by some real champions of the turf since its first running in 1855. Last year Hitotsu came from the clouds to score in fine style, before going on to win both the Australian Guineas and ATC Derby in the Autumn.
Last start Spring Champion Stakes winner, Sharp ‘N’ Smart ($3.40) and last start Moonee Valley Vase winner, Berkeley Square ($3.40) are battling it out for favouritism in this year’s Derby. Dabble has Kiwi colt, Mr Maestro, on the third line at $6.00 and Pericles rounds out those in single figures at $7.50.
With no clear cut favourite and every runner untried at the trip, this year’s Victoria Derby looks very tough to assess. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Victoria Derby along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (3) – $3.40EF
Jockey – James McDonald 57kg
Trainer – Graeme & Deborah Rogerson
Last start Spring Champion winner who is unbeaten this prep. Racing like he will be suited over the trip and beat a handy field last start, including the Caulfield Guineas runner up. Should get every chance from the low draw and both trainer and jockey know what it takes to win the race.
2. Berkeley Square (5) – $3.40EF
Jockey – Craig Williams 57kg
Trainer – Dan O’Sullivan
Got held up at a crucial stage when finishing fourth in the Caulfield Guineas before a grinding win last start in the MV Vase. He’s two from two here at Flemington and is out of a SA Classic (2500m) placed mare. Plenty to like.
Who will win the Victoria Derby?@GetOn78 pic.twitter.com/zvuJqzzM3Q
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 27, 2022
3. Let’srollthedice (7) – SCRATCHED
Jockey – Ben Melham 57kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
SCRATCHED
4. Mr Maestro (17) – $6.00
Jockey – Damian Lane 57kg
Trainer – Andrew Forsman
Made it three wins in a row last start at Caulfield at G3 level, where he was exposed early and had to earn the win. Loves the big open spaces of Flemington and looks as though the added journey won’t be an issue. The barrier draw has done him little favours but is racing too well to let that be a turn off. Can win again.
5. Pericles (6) – $7.50
Jockey – William Buick 57kg
Trainer – James Cummings
Stepped up from 1400m to 2040m last start in the MV Vase and was far from disgraced. He looked the winner on that occasion before tiring very late in the race. He now has to go to 2500m which is some concern for mine but the stable is on fire and gets the services of world class jockey, William Buick.
6. Grand Pierro (15) – $31
Jockey – Mark Zahra 57kg
Trainer – Jason Warren
Got back and swallowed up the fav late in the race to win the Geelong Classic last start. Will go back from the wide gate here and should be strong at the end of 2500m but the opposition is stronger. Place hope.
7. Manzoice (8) – $26
Jockey – Michael Dee 57kg
Trainer – Chris Waller
Held his ground last start in the Spring Champion behind Sharp ‘N’ Smart. Unsure about him at 2500m and would need to find on recent efforts to be considered a winning chance.
It’s back 🙌
The @FlemingtonVRC Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks off tomorrow with the running of the G1 Victoria Derby.
Tickets to all four days: https://t.co/0qu86kXdeZ pic.twitter.com/sLYEt5G5t7
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 27, 2022
8. Foujita San (9) – $23
Jockey – Jye McNeil 57kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Ran some good late splits in the Caulfield Guineas last start. Goes straight from the mile to 2500m here which will take some training effort, but who am I to doubt the Hawkes yard. Keep an eye on the market.
9. Skyphios (14) – $61
Jockey – Harry Coffey 57kg
Trainer – Rob Blacker
Didn’t do much in the Caulfield Guineas two back and could only manage a battling seventh to Berkeley Square last start. This has been his target all along but he needs to find on recent form if he’s to win this.
10. Muramasa (4) – $16
Jockey – Daniel Moor 57kg
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Lightly raced colt who just kept whacking away last start at Caulfield behind Mr Maestro. His debut win was very impressive and he looks suited at 2500m. Should enjoy a soft run from the good draw and can figure in the finish at good odds.
11. Fearless Knight (11) – $71
Jockey – Brett Prebble 57kg
Trainer – Kacy Fogden
Eight start maidener who wasn’t disgraced at Caulfield last start. Looks a tough little colt who gives his all but needs to go to another level to break his maiden at G1 level.
12. Berardino (10) – $41
Jockey – Damien Oliver 57kg
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Ran home well in a fast run race two back behind Mr Maestro before an honest effort last time out at the Valley in the worst part of the track. Should have no issue with the trip but may lack the class of some of his rivals here.
And finally the blue riband classic, the Victoria Derby for @FlemingtonVRC Saturday. pic.twitter.com/DaNOWB7PdH
— Andrew Bensley (@AndrewBensley) October 25, 2022
13. Distrustful Award (12) – $31
Jockey – Dean Yendall 57kg
Trainer – Paul Preusker
Took care of his maiden win in emphatic style at Mildura before a solid third to Mr Maestro last start. Looks to have plenty of staying talent and is capable of running a cheeky race here at good odds.
14. Highland Blaze (13) – $126
Jockey – Liam Riordan 57kg
Trainer – Jackson Pallot
Bairnsdale trained galloper who broke his maiden at the home track last start. This is obviously a lot tougher but has plenty of miles in his legs and could pick up some minor prize money.
15. King’s Crossing (16) – $51
Jockey – John Allen 57kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
Took off early and whacked away well last start in the Geelong Classic. Had excuses the start prior at Flemington. Bred to get a trip but will need luck from the outside gate and might find this a bit tougher.
16. Lehndorff (1) – $126
Jockey – Joshua Parr 57kg
Trainer – Mark Newnham
Led from barrier to box last start at Kembla Grange in maiden grade. Big step up here but comes from an astute yard and will get every chance from the inside gate.
17e. Aberfeldie Boy (2) – $81
Jockey – Ben Melham 57kg
Trainer – Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock
Wasn’t far away in the Geelong Classic last start. Bred to get over ground and will get a good run from the gate. Seen worse 100/1 pops.
Final Word
There will be 16 boys that will line up in this year’s Victoria Derby, in what will no doubt be a true test of grit and stamina. Tactics will play a key role from the 2500m start in a race that seemingly lacks early pressure.
Mr Maestro takes barrier 17 in the Penfolds Victoria Derby 😳 pic.twitter.com/NrEvNNtNo5
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 25, 2022
Going with the Kiwi, Mr Maestro on top. He’s continued to improve as the distances get longer this prep and despite the wide draw, think he’s the one to beat here. He took off a long way from home last start and was still too strong for Muramasa and co, is unbeaten at Flemington and the Forsman yard has been on fire here this Spring.
Moonee Valley Vase winner, Berkeley Square, and Spring Champion Stakes winner, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, look the logical dangers. Both won well last start and give the impression the added journey won’t be any issue. Importantly both jockeys, Craig Williams and Hugh Bowman, have won the Derby before and know what is needed to salute the judge in the winner’s stall.
Muramasa is another who should stay the trip. His last start second to Mr Maestro was gutsy and he should enjoy a nice run from the good draw, and Foujita San looks the best roughie for mine, after finishing off nicely in the Caulfield Guineas last start. He goes straight from a mile to 2500m which has to be of some concern, but that was the exact path Hitotsu took to victory in this race last year.
Victoria Derby Tip
4. Mr Maestro – Each-way ($6.00/$2.20)
Get our horse racing tips delivered straight to you!
If you need more news, information and tips, head over to our Victoria Derby page for all your punting needs!
*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.
