Tips Category: Victoria Derby

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2022 Victoria Derby Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

The Victoria Derby, run over 2500m at Flemington Racecourse, is the premier three year old staying race on the Australian racing calendar. The $2m set weights contest is a true test of stamina and has been won by some real champions of the turf since its first running in 1855. Last year Hitotsu came from the clouds to score in fine style, before going on to win both the Australian Guineas and ATC Derby in the Autumn.

Last start Spring Champion Stakes winner, Sharp ‘N’ Smart ($3.40) and last start Moonee Valley Vase winner, Berkeley Square ($3.40) are battling it out for favouritism in this year’s Derby. Dabble has Kiwi colt, Mr Maestro, on the third line at $6.00 and Pericles rounds out those in single figures at $7.50.

With no clear cut favourite and every runner untried at the trip, this year’s Victoria Derby looks very tough to assess. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Victoria Derby along with The Shark’s best tips. 

1. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (3) – $3.40EF
Jockey – James McDonald 57kg
Trainer – Graeme & Deborah Rogerson

Last start Spring Champion winner who is unbeaten this prep. Racing like he will be suited over the trip and beat a handy field last start, including the Caulfield Guineas runner up. Should get every chance from the low draw and both trainer and jockey know what it takes to win the race.

2. Berkeley Square (5) – $3.40EF
Jockey – Craig Williams 57kg
Trainer – Dan O’Sullivan 

Got held up at a crucial stage when finishing fourth in the Caulfield Guineas before a grinding win last start in the MV Vase. He’s two from two here at Flemington and is out of a SA Classic (2500m) placed mare. Plenty to like.


3. Let’srollthedice (7) – SCRATCHED
Jockey – Ben Melham 57kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

SCRATCHED

4. Mr Maestro (17) – $6.00
Jockey – Damian Lane 57kg
Trainer – Andrew Forsman

Made it three wins in a row last start at Caulfield at G3 level, where he was exposed early and had to earn the win. Loves the big open spaces of Flemington and looks as though the added journey won’t be an issue. The barrier draw has done him little favours but is racing too well to let that be a turn off. Can win again.

5. Pericles (6) – $7.50
Jockey – William Buick 57kg
Trainer – James Cummings

Stepped up from 1400m to 2040m last start in the MV Vase and was far from disgraced. He looked the winner on that occasion before tiring very late in the race. He now has to go to 2500m which is some concern for mine but the stable is on fire and gets the services of world class jockey, William Buick.

6. Grand Pierro (15) – $31
Jockey – Mark Zahra 57kg
Trainer – Jason Warren

Got back and swallowed up the fav late in the race to win the Geelong Classic last start. Will go back from the wide gate here and should be strong at the end of 2500m but the opposition is stronger. Place hope.

7. Manzoice (8) – $26
Jockey – Michael Dee 57kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Held his ground last start in the Spring Champion behind Sharp ‘N’ Smart. Unsure about him at 2500m and would need to find on recent efforts to be considered a winning chance.


8. Foujita San (9) – $23
Jockey – Jye McNeil 57kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Ran some good late splits in the Caulfield Guineas last start. Goes straight from the mile to 2500m here which will take some training effort, but who am I to doubt the Hawkes yard. Keep an eye on the market.

9. Skyphios (14) – $61
Jockey – Harry Coffey 57kg
Trainer – Rob Blacker

Didn’t do much in the Caulfield Guineas two back and could only manage a battling seventh to Berkeley Square last start. This has been his target all along but he needs to find on recent form if he’s to win this.

10. Muramasa (4) – $16
Jockey – Daniel Moor 57kg
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Lightly raced colt who just kept whacking away last start at Caulfield behind Mr Maestro. His debut win was very impressive and he looks suited at 2500m. Should enjoy a soft run from the good draw and can figure in the finish at good odds.

11. Fearless Knight (11) – $71
Jockey – Brett Prebble 57kg
Trainer – Kacy Fogden

Eight start maidener who wasn’t disgraced at Caulfield last start. Looks a tough little colt who gives his all but needs to go to another level to break his maiden at G1 level.

12. Berardino (10) – $41
Jockey – Damien Oliver 57kg
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Ran home well in a fast run race two back behind Mr Maestro before an honest effort last time out at the Valley in the worst part of the track. Should have no issue with the trip but may lack the class of some of his rivals here.


13. Distrustful Award (12) – $31
Jockey – Dean Yendall 57kg
Trainer – Paul Preusker

Took care of his maiden win in emphatic style at Mildura before a solid third to Mr Maestro last start. Looks to have plenty of staying talent and is capable of running a cheeky race here at good odds.

14. Highland Blaze (13) – $126
Jockey – Liam Riordan 57kg
Trainer – Jackson Pallot

Bairnsdale trained galloper who broke his maiden at the home track last start. This is obviously a lot tougher but has plenty of miles in his legs and could pick up some minor prize money.

15. King’s Crossing (16) – $51
Jockey – John Allen 57kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

Took off early and whacked away well last start in the Geelong Classic. Had excuses the start prior at Flemington. Bred to get a trip but will need luck from the outside gate and might find this a bit tougher.

16. Lehndorff (1) – $126
Jockey – Joshua Parr 57kg
Trainer – Mark Newnham

Led from barrier to box last start at Kembla Grange in maiden grade. Big step up here but comes from an astute yard and will get every chance from the inside gate. 

17e. Aberfeldie Boy (2) – $81
Jockey – Ben Melham 57kg
Trainer – Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock

Wasn’t far away in the Geelong Classic last start. Bred to get over ground and will get a good run from the gate. Seen worse 100/1 pops.

Final Word

There will be 16 boys that will line up in this year’s Victoria Derby, in what will no doubt be a true test of grit and stamina. Tactics will play a key role from the 2500m start in a race that seemingly lacks early pressure.


Going with the Kiwi, Mr Maestro on top. He’s continued to improve as the distances get longer this prep and despite the wide draw, think he’s the one to beat here. He took off a long way from home last start and was still too strong for Muramasa and co, is unbeaten at Flemington and the Forsman yard has been on fire here this Spring.

Moonee Valley Vase winner, Berkeley Square, and Spring Champion Stakes winner, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, look the logical dangers. Both won well last start and give the impression the added journey won’t be any issue. Importantly both jockeys, Craig Williams and Hugh Bowman, have won the Derby before and know what is needed to salute the judge in the winner’s stall.

Muramasa is another who should stay the trip. His last start second to Mr Maestro was gutsy and he should enjoy a nice run from the good draw, and Foujita San looks the best roughie for mine, after finishing off nicely in the Caulfield Guineas last start. He goes straight from a mile to 2500m which has to be of some concern, but that was the exact path Hitotsu took to victory in this race last year.

Victoria Derby TipLogo

4. Mr Maestro – Each-way ($6.00/$2.20)

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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.

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2021 Victoria Derby Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

The three-year-old boys have been building up to this all Spring Carnival, and now they kick off Melbourne Cup week with the 2021 Victoria Derby. There is a capacity field of 16 colts & geldings, with four emergencies waiting for the call-up, and this looks to be a cracking race with plenty of live chances. 

Sportsbet currently, as of Wednesday afternoon, has Forgot You as the $3.90 favourite, slightly ahead of Gunstock ($4.20). Both horses are coming off last start wins over 2000m, Forgot You last weekend in The Vase at Moonee Valley and Gunstock two weeks ago in the Neds Classic at Caulfield. 

While those two have dominated the market, there are plenty of chances and we have analysed each and every runner for you! Read on below to find out runner by runner preview of the 2021 Victoria Derby along with The Shark’s Victoria Derby best tips. 

1. Forgot You (8) – $3.90
Jockey – Daniel Moor
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Is a deserved favourite after three wins from five runs this prep, along with a fast-finishing sixth in the Caulfield Guineas. While Forgot You’s win last weekend in The Vase was massive for punters, it is quite alarming that the $2 favourite only just managed to get the job done on the line, with the other horse being a $101 chance. Based on this prep, he is definitely the horse to beat, but this prep will now be six races long by the time this race is run on Saturday and that may show. 

2. Tutukaka (12) – $9
Jockey – James McDonald
Trainer – Tony Pike

Tutukaka has looked like a Victoria Derby horse this entire time, especially since his win in the 1830m Tatt’s Stakes, and now comes into this off an excellent win in the Geelong Classic last Wednesday (20/10). He drops 1kg from that run, is ready for the rise in distance and gets James McDonald on board, which is one of the better gear changes in racing at the moment. At each-way odds, Tutukaka looks one of the main chances in this year’s Victoria Derby. 

3. Alegron (9) – $10
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – James Cummings

The Godolphin gelding brings some different form into the race, which is always great to have, coming down from Sydney after running behind Profondo in his last two starts. In the G1 2000m Spring Champion, Alegron was able to finish third to Profondo and Never Been Kissed, who won the G1 Flight Stakes prior to that. That is incredible form to bring and he gets the in-form Brett Prebble on board. He is yet to run on a soft surface and there is a fair amount of rain due in Melbourne, but given how good the Flemington drainage is, that shouldn’t be an issue. 

4. Gunstock (19) – $4.20
Jockey – Jye McNeil
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)

The other short-priced chance in the race, Gunstock comes into this race on the back of two wins from three tries this prep. His one slip up was in the Super Impose Stakes, when finishing less than half a length of El Patroness, who is a main chance for Thursday’s VRC Kennedy Oaks, but did turn the tables on her in the Neds Classic. He did beat Tutukaka home by 3L that day, and we gave him a massive wrap, so that says a lot about how well Gunstock is going, but the wide draw may be his undoing. Barrier 19, 15 after scratchings, is a disastrous pick in such a long race as he will be kept wide throughout, meaning Jye McNeil will need to be at his best. 

5. Akihiro (2) – $35
Jockey – Rachel King
Trainer – Gary Portelli 

Akihiro is another to back-up from Saturday’s The Vase, where he finished 1.9L back from Forgot You. However, he did look like he was tiring, as he had multiple lengths on the winner going around the bend before fading back to fourth. Another factor is that James McDonald rode him there and jumps off for Tutukaka, which is never a good sign. 

6. Character (10) – $35
Jockey – Fred Kersley
Trainer – James Cummings

Character is another to come out of the Geelong Classic, only going down to Tutukaka by less than a length. He made his move earlier than the winner and that may have cost him, but he ran out a strong 2200m and had 2.5L on third, which is always a good sign. He has only won a maiden race, but his last two runs, coming top four in very good races, shows he is on the up. 

7. Jungle Magnate (5) – $19
Jockey – Luke Currie
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)

Jungle Magnate finished third to Forgot You in Saturday’s The Vase, coming from last at the 400m to finish within two lengths of the winner, and favourite for this race. He is lightly raced, only having four career starts, but has only gotten better as he has risen in distance. 

8. Commander Harry (15) – $27
Jockey – Linda Meech
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Commander Harry completes the trifecta from The Vase, finishing 0.2L back from Forgot You in second, despite going around at $101. He has only raced four times, with his first two being in maiden grade before a 9th placing in a BM64 two runs back, meaning Saturday may have simply been a perfect storm for him. 

9. Hitotsu (7) – $9
Jockey – John Allen
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

It has been a massive rise to the moment for Hitotsu, winning a 1350m maiden at Donald before running a very impressive 5th in the 1600m Caulfield Guineas. He hasn’t raced since then, with three weeks between runs, and jumps up 900m for this race, but you can’t doubt his talent, and potential. The Maher & Eustace trained colt performs to the level and is the clear X-factor runner in the race. 

10. Cerberus (20) – $41
Jockey – Damien Thornton
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman

Cerberus has some unique form coming into this race but has actually ran into some of his competitors here in his last few runs. He finished 2L 3rd to Character two runs back before beating home Jungle Magnate over 1800m three weeks ago. He had a tougher run than Jungle Magnate there and still beat him home, but is almost double the price here?

11. Gundec (3) – $61
Jockey – Craig Williams
Trainer – Symon Wilde

Had the perfect run behind Gunstock in the Neds Classic, trailing him into the straight at Caulfield but ended up finishing 7.5L off the winner, which is why the prices are represented the way they are. He was $7.50 that day, meaning the market respects him, so maybe that was just a poor run?

12. Clyde (6) – $126
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Trainer – Gary Portelli

While Clyde comes into this on the back of a 1.7L win, a BM58 is nothing to write home about. His run before that he finished 10th in the Spring Champion, six lengths behind Alegron. 

13. El Rocko (16) – $151
Jockey – Jamie Mott
Trainer – John McArdle

El Rocko is yet to break his maiden, from eight starts, and finished 3.2L behind Forgot You in The Vase, where he was losing ground on those around him. 

14. Raging Bull (17) – $51
Jockey – Michael Dee
Trainer – David Payne

Raging Bull is another to come out of the Spring Champion but finished over 3L back from Alegron in that race. He did have a faster than average last 600m, indicating he may relish the rise in distance, but would need to improve massively to factor in the finish. 

15. Cheerful Moment (14) – $61
Jockey – Blaike McDougall
Trainer – Lindsey Smith

A 0.2L third to Rhinoceros doesn’t look as good now, with the winner coming out and ran a dud on the weekend against the older horses. Cheerful Moment ran on Saturday as well, finishing over 10L behind Forgot You in The Vase, making us wonder why he isn’t longer in the market. 

16. Teewaters (4) – $19
Jockey – Declan Bates
Trainer – Archie Alexander

Teewaters has only missed the place once from his five career starters and that was in his debut race. His most recent performance was third to Gunstock in the Neds Classic, finishing within 3L of the winner and $4 chance here. His last 600m was relatively ordinary, meaning he may not be best suited here. 

17e. Zoumon (13) – $31
Jockey – Glen Boss
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Considering Zoumon has better odds than half the field and is an emergency, it says a lot about how much respect he has in the market. He brings in completely different form, running in maidens and BM70s at Kyneton and Moe, but was impressive to win by 1.5L on a Heavy8 over 2050m in his last start. 

18e. Sebastian The Fox (1) – $126
Jockey – Jarrod Fry
Trainer – Shay Keating

Needs luck to get in and then even more luck to factor. Sebastian The Fox was fourth to Gunstock in the Neds Classic but was also 6.5L off the pace. 

19e. King Of Pharaohs (18) – $101
Jockey – Will Gordon
Trainer – Lindsey Smith

Unlikely to get a run, considering he is the third emergency, but King Of Pharaohs was impressive in his last run, coming from the back to finish 3.4L 4th to Tutukaka in the Geelong Classic. 

20e. Spirit Of Gaylard (11) – $35
Jockey – Jordan Childs
Trainer – Mitchell Freedman

Potentially the most exciting of the four emergencies, but is the fourth, meaning he won’t get a run. 

Final Word

Given the nature and length of the race, it isn’t very often that you see the favourite win, in fact only two of the last 10 favourites have won the Victoria Derby. That doesn’t bode well for Forgot You, who is backing up after a very tough run on Saturday and has already had five big assignments this prep. 

So if we are looking to bet around the favourite, where do we look. Well, over the last eight years, six winners have been priced at $10 or less, meaning the market still has some idea about which horses are the main contenders. Based on the current market, that leaves us with Tutukaka, Alegron, Gunstock and Hitotsu. We are happy to put a line through Gunstock from the wide draw, thinking that it will be too much for Jye McNeil and the Colt to overcome.

The remaining three are all priced between $9-$10, meaning we have found some value for the punters and we are going to go with last start winner, Tutukaka to come out on top. The half-brother to Melody Belle looks like he will relish the rise in distance, and gets James McDonald on board for this run. His win in the Geelong Classic was extremely good, especially considering he went wide and the winners on the day were on the inside, and the rise up to 2500m should be no dramas based on his finish there. 

Given he is in the top four in the market, is coming off a win and gets the best jockey in the country on board, everything seems perfectly lined up for the Kiwi-bred gelding to come out on top. Given Sportsbet will be offering a bonus back to fifth, and it is just a 16 horse field, we like our chances that we will come out with a big-odds winner, or a bonus bet as a worst case scenario. 

Best Victoria Derby Tip: Tutukaka – Win ($9)

Don’t stop there, The Victoria Derby is one of just seven feature races across both Flemington and Rosehill this Saturday! We have done a runner-by-runner preview on all seven, so you just need to read, agree, place your bets and watch the winnings come in:

  • Empire Rose Stakes – Analysis Here!
  • Classique Legend (Winner) Stakes – Analysis Here!
  • Rosehill Gold Cup – Analysis Here!

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Victoria Derby page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.

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2020 Victoria Derby Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

The premier staying event for three-year-olds is here, with 14 starters ready to tackle the 2500m for the $2 million 2020 Victoria Derby (2500m).

Let’s take a look at each and every runner to find a way to fill our pockets…

1 – Cherry Tortoni – $4.40 ???

Has had a nice platform this preparation for the 2500m trip, coming through a strong Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney and winning the Moonee Valley Vase last start. Circled the field and just held on last start, but will find this tougher with a bigger and better field to run down, and a short price. Goes in everything but there are question marks at the price.

2 – Albarado – $7.50 ??

Did a stack of work in the run during the Caulfield Classic and fought hard to win. Has drawn well and would want to find some cover rather than travelling three wide again. One of the better chances if he can stay the trip.

3 – Johnny Get Angry – $34 ?

Should stay the trip which is a big tick, and has the barrier extension and blinkers on here after he missed the start last outing. Doesn’t look to possess a big turn of foot but should give you an honest look at a place for exotics.

4 – Let’s Karaka Deel – $10 ?

Should roll to the front from the gate and certainly give them something to chase. Looks a little immature compared to some of these and may be more of an autumn three-year-old. Talented and can go in exotics.

5 – Young Werther – $4 ???

The big wildcard in the race. Could be a level above and make a mess of them, but hasn’t had the ideal platform for this race, jumping from 1500m to 1800m and straight into a Derby at career start number three. Goes in everything and is a big chance, but I think we can take on the favourite at the price.

6 – Hit The Shot – $7 ???

Savaged the line in the Caulfield Classic over 2000m and definitely looks like he’ll relish the 2500m. In this up to his eyeballs and think he’s the one to beat at the price.

7 – Cetshwayo – $19

Has been travelling well enough and has already won at Flemington. Think he’s running into a few more brilliant here, though.

8 – Redwood Shadow – $15 ???

Caught the eye in his first two starts, second behind Cambourne on debut and then emphatically winning in start number two. Was okay last start in a bunched finish with Albarado, Hit The Shot, and Let’s Karaka Deel, and looks good enough value to have on your side and throw in exotics.

9 – Wertheimer – $34 ???

Thought this galloper was way over the odds and one of the better each way bets of the day. Was the run of the race in the Derby Trial over 1800m, and then got absolutely flattened at the top of the straight in the Spring Champion Stakes. Goes in everything and can win.

10 – Tour Of Duty – $27

Has just been okay, looking elsewhere.

11 – Token Spirit – $71

The price says it all, no.

12 – Born To Succeed – $151

Would have to start running now to have a chance.

13 – Wisaka – $61 ?

Out of Tavistock and ran well at Geelong over 2200m, which indicates he should stay the trip and be a sneaky chance at a place at the massive odds.

14 – Kenzan – $101

Also ran on well at Geelong, but this looks too tough.

Tip: 6-5-9-1

? = Must Watch
? = Big Winning Chance
?= Worth Including in Exotics

2020 Victoria Derby Field, Barriers, and Odds

*Odds correct at time of posting article.

HorseWinPlace
1Cherry Tortoni (14)J: Billy Egan 57kg T: Patrick Payne$4.20$1.75Bet Now
2Albarado (8)J: Mark Zahra 57kg T: T Busuttin & N Young$7.50$2.40Bet Now
3Johnny Get Angry (5)J: Lachlan King 57kg T: Denis Pagan$34.00$7.00Bet Now
4Let’s Karaka Deel (3)J: John Allen 57kg T: C Maher & D Eustace$10.00$3.10Bet Now
5Young Werther (4)J: Damien Oliver 57kg T: D T O’brien$4.00$1.65Bet Now
6Hit The Shot (9)J: Fred W Kersley 57kg T: Matthew Cumani$6.50$2.30Bet Now
7Cetshwayo (10)J: Jamie Kah 57kg T: D T O’brien$18.00$4.80Bet Now
8Redwood Shadow (12)J: Jye Mcneil 57kg T: M Price & M Kent Jnr$12.00$3.90Bet Now
9Wertheimer (6)J: Hugh Bowman 57kg T: T Busuttin & N Young$31.00$7.00Bet Now
10Tour Of Duty (13)J: James Mcdonald 57kg T: M D Moroney$26.00$6.00Bet Now
11Token Spirit (11)J: Damian Lane 57kg T: R Griffiths & M De Kock$61.00$12.00Bet Now
12Born To Succeed (7)J: Michael Walker 57kg T: Saab Hasan$126.00$26.00Bet Now
13Wisaka (2)J: Ben Melham 57kg T: M D Moroney$51.00$9.00Bet Now
14Kenzan (1)J: Daniel Moor 57kg T: D T O’brien$81.00$18.00Bet Now