2021 Victoria Derby Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

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Wed 27th October 2021
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The three-year-old boys have been building up to this all Spring Carnival, and now they kick off Melbourne Cup week with the 2021 Victoria Derby. There is a capacity field of 16 colts & geldings, with four emergencies waiting for the call-up, and this looks to be a cracking race with plenty of live chances. 

Sportsbet currently, as of Wednesday afternoon, has Forgot You as the $3.90 favourite, slightly ahead of Gunstock ($4.20). Both horses are coming off last start wins over 2000m, Forgot You last weekend in The Vase at Moonee Valley and Gunstock two weeks ago in the Neds Classic at Caulfield. 

While those two have dominated the market, there are plenty of chances and we have analysed each and every runner for you! Read on below to find out runner by runner preview of the 2021 Victoria Derby along with The Shark’s Victoria Derby best tips. 

1. Forgot You (8) – $3.90
Jockey – Daniel Moor
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Is a deserved favourite after three wins from five runs this prep, along with a fast-finishing sixth in the Caulfield Guineas. While Forgot You’s win last weekend in The Vase was massive for punters, it is quite alarming that the $2 favourite only just managed to get the job done on the line, with the other horse being a $101 chance. Based on this prep, he is definitely the horse to beat, but this prep will now be six races long by the time this race is run on Saturday and that may show. 

2. Tutukaka (12) – $9
Jockey – James McDonald
Trainer – Tony Pike

Tutukaka has looked like a Victoria Derby horse this entire time, especially since his win in the 1830m Tatt’s Stakes, and now comes into this off an excellent win in the Geelong Classic last Wednesday (20/10). He drops 1kg from that run, is ready for the rise in distance and gets James McDonald on board, which is one of the better gear changes in racing at the moment. At each-way odds, Tutukaka looks one of the main chances in this year’s Victoria Derby. 

3. Alegron (9) – $10
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – James Cummings

The Godolphin gelding brings some different form into the race, which is always great to have, coming down from Sydney after running behind Profondo in his last two starts. In the G1 2000m Spring Champion, Alegron was able to finish third to Profondo and Never Been Kissed, who won the G1 Flight Stakes prior to that. That is incredible form to bring and he gets the in-form Brett Prebble on board. He is yet to run on a soft surface and there is a fair amount of rain due in Melbourne, but given how good the Flemington drainage is, that shouldn’t be an issue. 

4. Gunstock (19) – $4.20
Jockey – Jye McNeil
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)

The other short-priced chance in the race, Gunstock comes into this race on the back of two wins from three tries this prep. His one slip up was in the Super Impose Stakes, when finishing less than half a length of El Patroness, who is a main chance for Thursday’s VRC Kennedy Oaks, but did turn the tables on her in the Neds Classic. He did beat Tutukaka home by 3L that day, and we gave him a massive wrap, so that says a lot about how well Gunstock is going, but the wide draw may be his undoing. Barrier 19, 15 after scratchings, is a disastrous pick in such a long race as he will be kept wide throughout, meaning Jye McNeil will need to be at his best. 

5. Akihiro (2) – $35
Jockey – Rachel King
Trainer – Gary Portelli 

Akihiro is another to back-up from Saturday’s The Vase, where he finished 1.9L back from Forgot You. However, he did look like he was tiring, as he had multiple lengths on the winner going around the bend before fading back to fourth. Another factor is that James McDonald rode him there and jumps off for Tutukaka, which is never a good sign. 

6. Character (10) – $35
Jockey – Fred Kersley
Trainer – James Cummings

Character is another to come out of the Geelong Classic, only going down to Tutukaka by less than a length. He made his move earlier than the winner and that may have cost him, but he ran out a strong 2200m and had 2.5L on third, which is always a good sign. He has only won a maiden race, but his last two runs, coming top four in very good races, shows he is on the up. 

7. Jungle Magnate (5) – $19
Jockey – Luke Currie
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)

Jungle Magnate finished third to Forgot You in Saturday’s The Vase, coming from last at the 400m to finish within two lengths of the winner, and favourite for this race. He is lightly raced, only having four career starts, but has only gotten better as he has risen in distance. 

8. Commander Harry (15) – $27
Jockey – Linda Meech
Trainer – Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Commander Harry completes the trifecta from The Vase, finishing 0.2L back from Forgot You in second, despite going around at $101. He has only raced four times, with his first two being in maiden grade before a 9th placing in a BM64 two runs back, meaning Saturday may have simply been a perfect storm for him. 

9. Hitotsu (7) – $9
Jockey – John Allen
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

It has been a massive rise to the moment for Hitotsu, winning a 1350m maiden at Donald before running a very impressive 5th in the 1600m Caulfield Guineas. He hasn’t raced since then, with three weeks between runs, and jumps up 900m for this race, but you can’t doubt his talent, and potential. The Maher & Eustace trained colt performs to the level and is the clear X-factor runner in the race. 

10. Cerberus (20) – $41
Jockey – Damien Thornton
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman

Cerberus has some unique form coming into this race but has actually ran into some of his competitors here in his last few runs. He finished 2L 3rd to Character two runs back before beating home Jungle Magnate over 1800m three weeks ago. He had a tougher run than Jungle Magnate there and still beat him home, but is almost double the price here?

11. Gundec (3) – $61
Jockey – Craig Williams
Trainer – Symon Wilde

Had the perfect run behind Gunstock in the Neds Classic, trailing him into the straight at Caulfield but ended up finishing 7.5L off the winner, which is why the prices are represented the way they are. He was $7.50 that day, meaning the market respects him, so maybe that was just a poor run?

12. Clyde (6) – $126
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Trainer – Gary Portelli

While Clyde comes into this on the back of a 1.7L win, a BM58 is nothing to write home about. His run before that he finished 10th in the Spring Champion, six lengths behind Alegron. 

13. El Rocko (16) – $151
Jockey – Jamie Mott
Trainer – John McArdle

El Rocko is yet to break his maiden, from eight starts, and finished 3.2L behind Forgot You in The Vase, where he was losing ground on those around him. 

14. Raging Bull (17) – $51
Jockey – Michael Dee
Trainer – David Payne

Raging Bull is another to come out of the Spring Champion but finished over 3L back from Alegron in that race. He did have a faster than average last 600m, indicating he may relish the rise in distance, but would need to improve massively to factor in the finish. 

15. Cheerful Moment (14) – $61
Jockey – Blaike McDougall
Trainer – Lindsey Smith

A 0.2L third to Rhinoceros doesn’t look as good now, with the winner coming out and ran a dud on the weekend against the older horses. Cheerful Moment ran on Saturday as well, finishing over 10L behind Forgot You in The Vase, making us wonder why he isn’t longer in the market. 

16. Teewaters (4) – $19
Jockey – Declan Bates
Trainer – Archie Alexander

Teewaters has only missed the place once from his five career starters and that was in his debut race. His most recent performance was third to Gunstock in the Neds Classic, finishing within 3L of the winner and $4 chance here. His last 600m was relatively ordinary, meaning he may not be best suited here. 

17e. Zoumon (13) – $31
Jockey – Glen Boss
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Considering Zoumon has better odds than half the field and is an emergency, it says a lot about how much respect he has in the market. He brings in completely different form, running in maidens and BM70s at Kyneton and Moe, but was impressive to win by 1.5L on a Heavy8 over 2050m in his last start. 

18e. Sebastian The Fox (1) – $126
Jockey – Jarrod Fry
Trainer – Shay Keating

Needs luck to get in and then even more luck to factor. Sebastian The Fox was fourth to Gunstock in the Neds Classic but was also 6.5L off the pace. 

19e. King Of Pharaohs (18) – $101
Jockey – Will Gordon
Trainer – Lindsey Smith

Unlikely to get a run, considering he is the third emergency, but King Of Pharaohs was impressive in his last run, coming from the back to finish 3.4L 4th to Tutukaka in the Geelong Classic. 

20e. Spirit Of Gaylard (11) – $35
Jockey – Jordan Childs
Trainer – Mitchell Freedman

Potentially the most exciting of the four emergencies, but is the fourth, meaning he won’t get a run. 

Final Word

Given the nature and length of the race, it isn’t very often that you see the favourite win, in fact only two of the last 10 favourites have won the Victoria Derby. That doesn’t bode well for Forgot You, who is backing up after a very tough run on Saturday and has already had five big assignments this prep. 

So if we are looking to bet around the favourite, where do we look. Well, over the last eight years, six winners have been priced at $10 or less, meaning the market still has some idea about which horses are the main contenders. Based on the current market, that leaves us with Tutukaka, Alegron, Gunstock and Hitotsu. We are happy to put a line through Gunstock from the wide draw, thinking that it will be too much for Jye McNeil and the Colt to overcome.

The remaining three are all priced between $9-$10, meaning we have found some value for the punters and we are going to go with last start winner, Tutukaka to come out on top. The half-brother to Melody Belle looks like he will relish the rise in distance, and gets James McDonald on board for this run. His win in the Geelong Classic was extremely good, especially considering he went wide and the winners on the day were on the inside, and the rise up to 2500m should be no dramas based on his finish there. 

Given he is in the top four in the market, is coming off a win and gets the best jockey in the country on board, everything seems perfectly lined up for the Kiwi-bred gelding to come out on top. Given Sportsbet will be offering a bonus back to fifth, and it is just a 16 horse field, we like our chances that we will come out with a big-odds winner, or a bonus bet as a worst case scenario. 

Best Victoria Derby Tip: Tutukaka – Win ($9)

Don’t stop there, The Victoria Derby is one of just seven feature races across both Flemington and Rosehill this Saturday! We have done a runner-by-runner preview on all seven, so you just need to read, agree, place your bets and watch the winnings come in:

  • Classique Legend (Winner) Stakes – Analysis Here!

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Victoria Derby page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.

Tim is a massive follower of Horse Racing, not only in Australia but around the world. Whether it be the champions of the Spring and Autumn Carnivals or following the form lines throughout winter, Tim always has an eye on everything racing. He attempts to get to every Saturday meet he can, with Turnbull Stakes Day at the home of racing, Flemington, being a stand-out! If you want a tipster that follows all form lines, ratings, conditions and weights, not just favourites, Tim is your guy.

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