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The final Group 1 of the Ascot Racing Carnival gets underway on Saturday, with the running of the $1.5m Northerly Stakes, formerly known as the Kingston Town Classic. Held over 1800m at Ascot Racecourse, the weight-for-age feature has some real standout names on the honour roll including; Kingston Town (1982), Vo Rogue (1988) and Better Loosen Up (1989), and has been a happy hunting ground for prolific WA owner, Bob Peters, in recent times.
Looking at the market, Dabble has Godolphin stalwart, Cascadian, favourite at $2.80 off the back of some solid interstate form. Star three-year-old, Amelia’s Jewel, is right on his heels at $3.20 following her dominant WA Guineas win, and runner-up in that race, Bustler, is next best at $10.
However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen, especially in capacity fields like this. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Northerly Stakes along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Cascadian (12) – $2.80F
Jockey – James McDonald 59kg
Trainer – James Cummings
Rising nine year old who is racing in career best form. Strung two wins together before a fast finishing fifth in the Champions Mile last start behind Alligator Blood. He beat home some handy horses on that occasion, including Private Eye, and has since won a trial here in Perth in preparation for this. Rating is far superior to his opposition here and looks thrown in under weight-for-age conditions. The one to beat.
2. Dom To Shoot (7) – $71
Jockey – Paul Harvey 59kg
Trainer – Sean & Jake Casey
Got the job done last Saturday in BM78+ grade with champion hoop D Oliver in the saddle. Form prior was solid but will find this a lot tougher. Finished third in this race in 2020, suggesting the 1800m is no issue, but it’s hard to see him making it two wins in a row here.
Barrier draw done for the Group 1 Northerly Stakes!
Who wins? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/NRstzlw8Rw
— TABtouch (@TAB_touch) November 29, 2022
3. Bad Wolf (2) – $126
Jockey – Shaun McGruddy 59kg
Trainer – Ashley Maley
Chased hard behind Buster Bash at this track/distance, before a midfield effort last start over 1400m. Will appreciate the step up in trip again here and tries hard in his races, but has to go to a whole other level if he’s to be competitive against this field.
4. Startrade (8) – $41
Jockey – Chris Nicoll 59kg
Trainer – Daniel Morton
Ultra-consistent galloper who got home well last start in the Railway at big odds. Untried past a mile but off the strength of his last run, the 1800m looks suitable. Has to lug an extra 6kg to find out and meets a seemingly stronger field here. Definitely not the worst but have others ahead of him.
5. Kaptain Kaos (13) – $101
Jockey – Lucy Warwick 59kg
Trainer – Michael Grantham
Got back and held his ground last start in the Railway Stakes. Form prior was nothing to get excited about. Steps up to 1800m for the first time and has an awkward gate to overcome. Others make more appeal.
6. God Has Chosen (10) – $34
Jockey – Shaun O’Donnell 59kg
Trainer – Donna Riordan
Raced wide and whacked away ok last start in the Railway. Placed over 2000m in the past and is racing like the added distance will suit, but needs to improve on what we’ve seen this prep if he’s to win this under weight-for-age conditions.
7. Ironclad (11) – $41
Jockey – Brad Rawiller 59kg
Trainer – Will Clarken
Ran well at Flemington and Cranbourne before a flop in the Railway last start here at Ascot. Should improve after that hitout here and the 1800m is no issue but it’s hard to be confident off what we saw last start. Has the ability to win a race like this but take on trust.
Ironclad will jump from barrier 11 in the G1 Northerly Stakes on Saturday @PerthRacing with Brad Rawiller aboard.
— Clarken Racing (@Clarken_Racing) November 29, 2022
8. Last Of The Line (3)
Jockey – Brad Parnham 59kg
Trainer – Stephen Miller
9. Notorious One (15) – $101
Jockey – Laqdar Ramoly (a) 59kg
Trainer – Chris & Michael Gangemi
Stalked the speed and was no match last start in the Railway Stakes. Form prior this prep has been poor for a race like this. Yet to place in three runs at 1800m and has come up with an outside gate which looks to seal his fate here.
10. Trix Of The Trade (16) – $13
Jockey – Troy Turner 58.5kg
Trainer – Colin Webster
Made the most of a soft run in transit last start when taking out the Railway Stakes here at Ascot. Not sure he will get the same run this time from the outside gate, but has only missed a place once in his fourteen start career and has to be considered one of the better chances, providing some luck goes his way.
11. Alaskan God (6) – $13
Jockey – Chris Parnham 58.5kg
Trainer – Daniel Morton
Ran on well from the back of the field first up in the Asian Beau before a disappointing effort in the Railway last start, despite racing wide. Steps up to 1800m now which is a big tick and he should enjoy a much more economical run from the good gate. Will need to be on his A game to beat the fancied runners but is loaded with ability and can hit back hard here.
12. Steinem (4) – $14
Jockey – John Allen 57kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Talented Victorian mare who ran a big race last start in the Matriarch Stakes at Flemington. Has since trialled here in WA and gets the services of Irishman, John Allen, who sticks with her. Should get every opportunity from the good draw and is good enough to finish in the money. Each-way hope.
“She’s building to a big performance and will appreciate firmer going.” Co-trainer David Eustace on Steinem in G1 Drummond Golf-Northerly Stakes.https://t.co/ucasMalfTd @santassnippets @TABradio @TAB_touch @PerthRacing pic.twitter.com/YfNNusS05X
— The Races WA (@TheRacesWA) November 30, 2022
13. Searchin’ Roc’s (14) – $61
Jockey – Kyra Yuill 56.5kg
Trainer – Jim Taylor
No luck first up before a solid win in the R J Peters. Didn’t have a lot of room last start in the Railway but was only fair to the line. Needs to overcome a tricky gate here and produce a career best to win this. Not hopeless but others look stronger.
14. Treasured Star (5) – $11
Jockey – William Pike 56.5kg
Trainer – Adam Durrant
Got back and weaved through the pack late to finish a closing sixth in the Railway last start. Good win prior in the Asian Beau. Steps up to 1800m for the first time which looks ideal and she should enjoy a nice run from the barrier. William Pike will be itching to get back in the feature winners’ stall here in WA and gets a good opportunity on this mare.
15. Bustler (9) – $10
Jockey – Steven Parnham 52kg
Trainer – Neville Parnham
Won his first four starts in good style before a close second to Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas last start. Goes up another 200m here which will be a test in itself and meets a quality field of gallopers. Has plenty of ability and is a real up and coming talent but has to turn the tables on the filly that beat him last start and the likes of Cascadian and co. Place chance.
16. Amelia’s Jewel (1) – $3.20
Jockey – Patrick Carbery 50kg
Trainer – Simon Miller
Went down at Listed level two starts ago as a very short priced favourite before hitting back hard in the WA Guineas last start. Won’t spend a dime from the inside gate here but will need the gaps to appear at the right time. If she gets even luck, she’s more than capable of making it win number six and taking home her first G1 trophy. Respect.
Veteran hoop Pat Carbery has been revitalised in recent times having partnered with star filly Amelia’s Jewel.
— Ladbrokes.com.au (@ladbrokescomau) November 28, 2022
A quality line up of fifteen will greet the starter in this year’s Northerly Stakes, with the early scratching of Last Of The Line. The majority of the field ran in the Railway Stakes two weeks ago, with the exception of a handful of runners, including the two well backed favourites.
Found it very hard to tip against Cascadian in this. He’s rated 117, 11 points higher than any other runner in the field and is thrown in under the weight-for-age conditions. His recent form is very good and the Godolphin stable have been unstoppable in recent times. He does have to handle the Ascot circuit and will need some cover from the wider gate, but clearly looks the one to beat.
Amelia’s Jewel is an exciting prospect and will be hard to beat providing she gets some clear running from the inside gate. Her win in the WA Guineas last start was dominant and she’s looking to follow in the footsteps of Arcadia Queen, who completed the Guineas/Northerly double in 2018.
Alaskan God looks the best value in the race for mine. He was disappointing in the Railway last start, despite covering ground, but his first up run was very good and he should appreciate the rise in trip to 1800m now. He’s drawn a softer gate here and should be ready to peak third up.
Victorian mare, Steinem, brings some solid form lines and is capable of running a big race, as is local mare, Treasured Star, who found the line well without a lot of room in the Railway. No knock against Trix Of The Trade, but the outside gate makes it hard and Bustler needs to lift if he’s to turn the tables on Amelia’s Jewel and beat Cascadian.
Northerly Stakes Tip
1. Cascadian – Win ($2.80)
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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.