We have studied the form from all races across the country for Saturday, September 3, and provided our best horse racing tips.
Newsflash! Spring has sprung!
It’s hard to avoid using the same cliched opener as every other racing website on the world wide web but let’s be honest… ‘How good is the Spring carnival?’.
Whilst the Rick McIntosh reference might get lost in translation to the written word, it is hard to imagine punters not having a ‘spring’ in their step when they pick up the form guides this week.
Okay, the Dad jokes are going to stop there, and we are going to get on with the tips.
Cracking days racing where we probably need not look beyond the Feehan Stakes meeting at Moonee Valley and Ranwick meeting in Sydney but we’ve found one at value at Hawkesbury that certainly warrants our attention.
We have made five selections in total and are confident that we have found you some winners! So, read on below to find our best horse racing tips for this Saturday, September 3.
Randwick, Race 5 – 2. Masked Crusader ($9.00/$2.25)
Joe Pride is an absolute master at maintaining older horses, particularly gelded sprinters. Perhaps none more so than Eduardo who has aged better than a bottle of Penfolds Grange. But with two soft trials and a trying track on the cards we are going to take on the 9YO.
Tread with caution here. If it becomes bog heavy, obviously Eduardo’s stocks, with his excellent heavy track record, go through the roof. And the horse that eats Mud Pies for breakfast, Shelby Sixtysix, comes right into play.
But even with the forecast, with a +7m rail and Randwick’s excellent drainage and resilience over recent times, we will work off a 7 to 8 rated track and go with Masked Crusader.
He has wrestled with Eduardo on a number of occasions, and whilst he’s never beaten him, he has bettered him on two occasions. That being when he finished 2nd to his 3rd in The Everest on a Soft 5, and likewise on a Soft 6 in the T.J. Smith.
Both of those are run at Randwick, both are at 1200m, which a high pressure 1000m on yielding ground is going to be closer to.
He resumed and failed down the straight at Flemington first up, but his last two first up runs around a bend have resulted in stakes wins.
His best win to date was in the William Reid was under Pike who is now based in Sydney and the main rider for Team Hawkes.
He’s opened double the quote of Andermatt who’s never won a stakes race and was beaten at Scone two back.
Just to remind you… this bloke split Nature Strip and Eduardo in last year’s Everest after bombing the start, going down 0.2L on the line. He’s 3 from 6 first up. Has a 30 per cent strike rate at Randwick including two stakes wins, and has won a Group 1 from two rides under W Pike.
The Shark’s Tip
2. Masked Crusader ($9.00/$2.25)
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Moonee Valley, Race 4 – 1. Spanish Mission ($9.00/$3.50)
Surprisingly small field for a Group 2 paying $300k to the winner but there’s no doubt this is the most intriguing race of the day.
We are going to roll the dice on roughie in this race with a Melbourne Cup winner resuming.
Whilst Mr Brightside broke through for his first Weight for Age victory last start, that was probably against horses not as well credentialed as this bunch, and this is far from a classic Feehan Stakes, or a classic Weight for Age field.
Whilst it looks void of pace on paper, I’d suggest unless they want to absolutely hand it to Mr Brightside on a platter, there’s going to be a couple in this employing spoiling tactics, and more than half the field looking to make this a genuine test at the mile rather than a sit and sprint affair.
This bloke showed he has tactical speed when he led them up in the Group 1 Weight for Age Australian Cup where he booted clear at the top of the straight after crossing from a wide draw, and it took two absolute stars to run him down with a 100m to go.
Not sure he’ll look to lead here but imagine he’ll be working forward and pouring acid on the race at about the 800m and we know what a quality stayer he is.
Tough and seasoned in the hands of a master conditioner, his 3rd behind Duais and Think It Over is easily the best WFA form reference in this race.
Worth entertaining at around double figure odds.
The Shark’s Tip
1. Spanish Mission ($9.00/$3.50)
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Moonee Valley, Race 5 – 2. In The Congo ($5.00/$2.35)
Tend to think the stable and/ or connections of race favourite Coolongatta have outsmarted themselves on occasions and quite possibly have cost themselves a decent quid in doing so. The 8 weeks between runs into the Golden Slipper on a heavy track being a good example.
There’s no pattern of success in what they are doing, and whilst the stable are renowned for thinking outside the square, I’m prepared to take her on here, particularly buoyed by the fact that not a single horse has won a race coming out of the Magic Millions.
What you see is what you get with In The Congo and that is also very much the case with the Waterhouse and Bott yard who have a long history of success with juveniles and are renowned for having them ready for a win first up.
He’s a Golden Rose winner over Anamoe, Group 1 placed against older horses in The Galaxy, and ran 2nd two back to boom horse Mazu, who sits on the second line of betting for The Everest. That stacks up better than the filly for mine.
She has looked good in her two recent jump outs but has been asked to do it and has beat up on basically maiden 3YO’s. This bloke won untouched in his first trial in a heat that featured G1 winners Fangirl and Converge. Then stretched his legs in his most recent win.
Happy to go with the tried and tested ‘bone and muscle’ formula.
The Shark’s Tip
2. In The Congo ($5.00/$2.35)
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Randwick, Race 7 – 3. Converge ($7.50/$2.10)
Probably enough pace here to warrant tipping him from the awkward draw.
We’ve seen Bjorn Baker and Rachel King sneak these types of affairs before but the leader Prime Candidate is a few rungs below these and I don’t expect he’ll look the winner at any point.
He’s going to have Zaaki right on his hammer posing serious questions coming up the famous rise at Royal Randwick. That galloper proved vulnerable at a mile first up last time, he resumes here at 1400m here, a year older, with a lot of racing in his legs, so let’s defer to the up and coming star.
Converge is a dual Group 1 winner, defeating Anamoe in a Randwick Guineas before finishing runner up to him in another Group 1, the Rosehill Guineas. That tells you he is a very high quality animal. He’s also a horse with a tremendous will to win, which makes him a hard horse to give a quiet trial to. But they did their best by piling stable mates up around him.
Made good ground along the inside late behind stablemate In The Congo in his first hit out. Then they just set the second trial up as a working hit out with one stablemate clearing out, another, the stayer Sacramento in trail, and this bloke eating up ground from well back late.
Think they made too much of Profondo’s run first up where he was deep, but with cover, and boxing on steadily. Fangirl the superior run out of that race. And the rest are either too old or not good enough.
His first up record reads poor, but he’s never resumed past 1200m before. Think he’s in for a big prep. Well worth backing here, and well worth specking in future markets before he salutes here.
The Shark’s Tip
3. Converge ($7.50/$2.10)
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Hawkesbury, Race 7 – 10. Headstock ($4.80/$1.90)
Copped an absolute bludger of a ride from Louise Day over 1200m at Kembla last start which was worthy of a full paragraph in the stewards report. Runner up out of that race has won since.
Blake Spriggs takes over here, comes back to the 1000m where he has gone super his two starts at the trip. Strips fitter third up after a torrid run at the six furlongs. Drawn soft and barring one other horse, the filly on debut Shadows of Love, this is about as low a race as you’ll find at the provincials on any given Saturday, and she draws 14/14.
Suspect forecast, be wary with the Headwater’s on a Heavy, stay in on a Soft rated surface and double your bet if the rain holds off and they somehow end up on a Good track.
The Shark’s Tip
10. Headstock ($4.80/$1.90)
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Best Bet – 3. Converge (Randwick, Race 7)
Next Best – 10. Headstock (Hawkesbury, Race 7)
Best Roughie – 1. Spanish Mission (Moonee Valley, Race 4)
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Dabble.
