We have studied the form from all races across the country for Saturday, March 4, and provided our best horse racing tips.
The term ‘form expert’ is one that is used very loosely in this industry, an industry which is generally made up of loose characters and folks who are presumably so intelligent they’ve concluded it’s a good idea to get out of bed at 4am 7 days a week.
I’m guilty as charged on all accounts so perhaps it was from lack of sleep last week that I made the ‘rookie error’ of thinking I could tip the winner of 4 Group 1 races and a Group 2 from my five plays of the day.
We went about as well there as an Australian middle order batsmen, registering the all too familiar duck egg that prevails at present on the Aussie scorecard as they tour the sub-continent.
But unlike our cricketers, we dug deep and fought back during the week to register 2 from 3, back to a 66% strike rate on Wednesday and a tasty ROI that looked more on point for a ‘proficient form analyst’ (my preferred pronoun) and saw us bank a few bucks so we can have a good throw at the stumps this Saturday.
And what a better week to have some cream atop of the cunning kick with head to head Guineas features in the two main states which provides the highlight of the day at both Randwick and Flemington to accompany strong stakes cards at both venues.
Setting our sights to more realistic goals than last week, we also venture to Eagle Farm in the Sunshine State for an Open Handicap, and to Hawkesbury on the NSW provincial circuit for a maiden hit out for a promising filly.
We have made five selections in total and are confident that we have found you some winners! So, read on below to find our best horse racing tips for this Saturday, March 4.
Hawkesbury, Race 1 – 13. Shadows Of Love ($2.25)
She let punters down last prep in her two starts after trialling strongly leading in, but we are happy to put that down to wintery tracks and lack of race experience.
She certainly looks above average in her trials and I like the way she settled and found the line in her recent outing indicating she is a more mature racehorse now.
Has a future beyond this.
The Shark’s Tip
13. Shadows Of Love ($2.25)
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Randwick, Race 6 – 5. The Bopper ($26/$4.80)
Fair to say this bloke has been a work in progress for the Lees operation.
I genuinely thought he had found his niche as a hold up/ run on sprinter in the truly run open handicaps of Brisbane, but he has hardly put a foot wrong this prep and genuinely deserves a crack at a race like this.
Has always shown stakes ability, and it has been trial and error with his racing pattern, but through good luck or good management, they’ve got it down pat with him now.
He was way too good for them in his first QLD run for the prep when they ventured to the Sunshine Coast midweek and rode him cold to win by 4L.
The best of good things beaten when he defied the pattern at the Gold Coast and came from last breaking 32 seconds to just miss over 900m in a $100k short course feature.
Minor hiccup when scratched at the gates before overcoming a muddling tempo in a small field last time out to arrive late.
Wade back to the start of the prep and the stuff around I Am Me and On The Lead starts to read really, really good now.
Assuming Passive Aggressive keeps old Eduardo honest, and Remarque and possibly the Kiwi galloper Sacred Satono look to be positive as well.
Any progression on that, and this could turn into a really solidly run affair which may just catch a couple of these napping that are first up and they are looking to ride cute.
You could conceivably run 7th of 9th in this, beaten 3L, and have run out of your skin. But, like many of these races at this time of year, they are all open to an upset, particularly with an in form, hard fit galloper, with an explosive turn of foot.
Worth being involved at the price.
The Shark’s Tip
5. The Bopper ($26/$4.80)
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Flemington, Race 7 – 1. Jacquinot ($2.25)
We tipped him when he smoked them in the Golden Rose, and we’ve stuck by him his first two runs this time in, so it would be almost rude to jump off.
Protest never in doubt last start…
These 3YO’s keep stepping up, and outside of Anamoe, there’s a clear gap to the cluster of four or five weight for age older horses who have about a half a length between them.
The door is open for a new star to step in, and this bloke might well be it.
Already has the Group 1 victory over the older horses, returns to his own age here. Flemington suits.
Should prove far too good.
The Shark’s Tip
1. Jacquinot ($2.25)
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Randwick, Race 9 – 11. Banana Queen ($4.20)
Rider went too early last start and conceded the eventual winner 3.5kg who had the cold sit on her.
She oozes quality and has been brilliant in her wins prior to the narrow defeat last time out which we will attribute to a cocky ride from Avdulla.
Have long held the opinion she is stakes grade and she gets the chance here down on the minimum, staying at the mile, and on a good surface.
A lot to like.
The Shark’s Tip
11. Banana Queen ($4.20)
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Eagle Farm, Race 8 – 1. Hilal ($2.50)
I’ve long been a fan of this horse, in spite of his enigmatic qualities. And it is hard to see anyone improving one from Team Hawkes, in spite of how good a trainer Tony Gollan is. But you just can not go past him here in an Open Handicap, with a 2kg claim.
The 1200m is probably a furlong short of his ideal distance range but class will carry him a long way. If you need further proof, refer to the 2.4L 4th to Anamoe and Fangirl last prep in the Winx Stakes over 1400m, along with his three Group 1 placings between seven furlongs and the mile.
He should just be too good.
The Shark’s Tip
1. Hilal ($2.50)
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Best Bet – 1. Hilal (Eagle Farm, Race 8)
Next Best – 11. Banana Queen (Randwick, Race 9)
Best Roughie – 5. The Bopper (Randwick, Race 6)
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Dabble.
