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We have studied the form from all races across the country for Saturday, February 18, and provided our best horse racing tips.
Just two Saturday’s left before Summer, like 2023, quickly starts to vanish in the rear view mirror.
Hard to believe, and not ideal given some of the long Winter’s we have had to endure in isolation over the past couple of years but it is fair to say this year does appear to have a much brighter disposition to those in the recent past.
Either way, it is shaping up as one hell of an Autumn, and the racing in Sydney and Melbourne this week serves as a timely reminder of that.
The alternating of meetings at Flemington and now Sandown in the bleak city has been warmly received by punters as both tracks are renowned to be among the fairest in all of racing and has proven a refreshing change to what we get served up at Caulfield most weeks, where the only thing more offensive to punters than the inconsistent surface and frequent track bias, is the consistent list of excuses offered by track man Jason Kerr.
With that in mind we are launching into one here at big odds that is set to race down the hallowed straight of Flemington in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
It is without doubt the highlight of the day, but a quality Sydney card of stakes racing at Rosehill is an ideal accompaniment.
Hopefully we are well in front once the main races have played out there as we are hopeful of finally getting paid by one who can scratch his name off the naughty list by saluting late in the day at Eagle Farm.
We have made five selections in total and are confident that we have found you some winners! So, read on below to find our best horse racing tips for this Saturday, February 18.
Rosehill, Race 3 – 15. Parisal ($6.50/$2.30)
An old J R Hawkes tactic at play here.
These were exactly the type of races this barn used to target when they were under the Woodlands banner in the all Cerise colours and would use claiming apprentices like C W Brown to go from maiden company straight into a metro Class 3 on the minimum.
That seems like a lifetime ago for this scribe, and would seem about as relevant and as interesting to Millennials as a headline bill at Revesby Workers Club featuring Richard Clapton supporting a reformed Australian Crawl.
That aside, it used to work. A lot. And whilst there’s been a number of company name changes, and just as many head trainer changes in the past two decades, the point is, it is a proven path for high quality progressive horses. Particularly fillies destined for black type.
Genuine excuses on debut. Clearly a tired horse 2nd up in Stakes company in its first campaign.
Trialled very well, raced even better resuming. Carries 50kg here which gives her 4L on Insurrection who was made to look smart beating Duchy of Savoy last time out. It races here but doesn’t even register in the betting.
The main danger looks to be Economics, which has been beaten at level weights by Insurrection in the past, has Maloney on board who struggles to ride winners in the two main states, and concedes this filly 7kg.
All three probably have bright futures, but weights and measures, and a horse on an upward trend, leaves a clear top pick here.
Parisal to make the quantum leap.
The Shark’s Tip
15. Parisal ($6.50/$2.30)
Rosehill, Race 4 – 2. Cylinder ($3.60)
My Golden Slipper pick resumes here and I couldn’t be happier with him.
Won his trial, in a middling time, but he did it easy.
Threw the race away on debut, then he was unlucky in defeat behind Little Brose at start number two when he was pocketed on the rail then struck over the snout by the rider of that horse when produced for a run.
Little Brose was game in chasing Barber home last weekend, in fact he looks like one of the few that given luck of the draw could actually beat Barber.
For mine, Cylinder, is a superior animal to Little Brose on even terms. And with maturity, I suspect that makes him a better conveyance than Barber. And Barber looks the Blue Diamond winner. Which would have you on the top 3 lines of betting for the Golden Slipper… and that would make you pretty bloody hard to beat in the Silver Slipper.
In short, you probably want to be on this Saturday.
The Shark’s Tip
2. Cylinder ($3.60)
Rosehill, Race 6 – 2. Mariamia ($2.00)
You get the feeling this mare would just about run through a brick wall for you at the moment.
She always gave the impression that Joe Pride was going to get a nice race out of her the moment she stepped out for him. I think it took him a preparation to really pin down at what track and trip that was going to be but he has her well and truly worked out now.
A master at upgrading his cattle, particularly mares and older geldings, she is chasing back to back Group 2 victories here, and there seems very little standing in her way.
The comprehensive victory over the Caulfield Guineas winner last start reads pretty good for this. She hits 1300m, 3rd up so there is no concern there. The draw is not ideal, but just a field of 10 runners, and T Clark, you would think negates that.
One of the better bets of the day.
The Shark’s Tip
2. Mariamia ($2.00)
Flemington, Race 7 – 6. Roch ‘N’ Horse ($11/$2.90)
Without doubt the most underrated horse in the country.
A dual Group 1 winner, both down the straight, once at WFA, the other under handicap conditions. I honestly wouldn’t have been surprised to see her nearly open favourite here.
You can always expect a weight of money for Nature Trip though, but at rising 9YO, first up, after a defeat by this girl last start, there is sufficient evidence to suggest she has his measure.
I can only imagine they’ve taken a set against her because this is at 1000m, but her only run in this country over that trip was at The Valley and these are vastly different circumstances.
Four starts down the Flemington straight for two Group 1 wins, and two Group 2 seconds.
This is not an easy race by any stretch, but you would have to have her in your top 3 based on her Flemington record alone, and her price in a race where solid each-way betting is going to stand up is simply ridiculous.
The Shark’s Tip
6. Roch ‘N’ Horse ($11/$2.90)
Eagle Farm, Race 8 – 2. The Bopper ($2.60)
Smoked them first up when resuming for the new QLD base, then an absolute tragedy beaten 2nd up at the Gold Coast.
Another tragedy occurred, particularly for multi players, when he was scratched behind the gates at $1.60 last time.
I think if we can get him in the machine here, he’s close to a good thing over the 1000m at Eagle Farm against this lot.
He is a genuine lower tier stakes horse when he’s on, and he seems to be very much that since they’ve settled him up north.
Can atone for his past sins.
The Shark’s Tip
2. The Bopper ($2.60)
Best Bet – 2. Cylinder (Rosehill, Race 4)
Next Best – 2. Mariamia (Rosehill, Race 6)
Best Roughie – 6. Roch ‘N’ Horse (Flemington, Race 7)
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Dabble.