Run on the first Tuesday in November, the Melbourne Cup, commonly referred to as “the race that stops the nation” is a Group 1 3200m handicap held at Flemington Racecourse. First run and won in 1861 by Archer, the now $7.75m staying feature has long been an iconic staple on the Australian racing and sporting calendar.
Whether it was Phar Lap in 1930, Damien Oliver’s emotional win in 2002 aboard Media Puzzle, Makybe Diva’s three-peat from 2003-05, or Bart’s 12th Cup win in 2008 with Viewed, we all have a favourite Melbourne Cup memory. A race that means so much to a nation is here again and a new name is ready to be etched into the history books.
Looking at the market, Dabble has International raider, Deauville Legend, a firm favourite at $3.70. At this stage no other runners are in single figures, but Montefilia ($11), Without A Fight ($11) and Gold Trip ($12) have been well supported. Last start Metropolitan placegetter, Realm Of Flowers, has also been heavily backed and is currently a $13 hope.
However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen and the Melbourne Cup is not like any other race. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Melbourne Cup along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Gold Trip (14) – $12
Jockey – Mark Zahra 57.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Former French galloper who has raced well at the highest level since arriving in Australia. Just went down in the Caulfield Cup two starts ago before a luckless 2.9L defeat in the Cox Plate last start. Goes from 2040m straight to 3200m here which is a tough ask and has to lug the top weight, but is a class horse and should be respected.
The last @ladbrokescomau Lab for the year for the biggest of them all … Melbourne Cup with @camluke pic.twitter.com/45OzhaDoqy
— Adam Hamilton (@AdamHSport) October 29, 2022
2. Duais (10) – $23
Jockey – Hugh Bowman 55.5kg
Trainer – Edward Cummings
Really showed her capabilities in the Autumn winning both the Australian Cup and Tancred Stakes. Form this prep hasn’t quite reached those levels but she found the line well late in the Caulfield Cup last start. Racing as though the two miles will suit here and has an explosive turn of foot when on song. Looks one of the better local hopes.
3. Knights Order (24) – $23
Jockey – Tim Clark 55.5kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Bold front running type who was gallant in defeat last time out in the Caulfield Cup. Racing in career best form this preparation and is a two time winner over 3200m, including a Sydney Cup win earlier this year. Handles all conditions but is unplaced in five runs here at Flemington which is some concern. Should be able to overcome the outside gate with his racing pattern but it’s hard to see him leading from the barrier to box.
4. Montefilia (11) – $11
Jockey – Jason Collett 55.5kg
Trainer – David Payne
Four time G1 winning mare who got home hard in the Caulfield Cup last start. Steps up to the two miles now, where she is untried, but gives the impression she will be well suited. She was G1 placed at her only start here at Flemington and should get a nice run, around midfield, from the middle draw. Handles all conditions, including heavy, and looks a good each-way chance here.
5. Numerian (7) – $51
Jockey – Tommy Berry 55.5kg
Trainer – Annabel Neasham
Former Irish galloper who is racing in a rich vein of form of late. He rode the speed and stuck on well last start in the Caulfield Cup and chased hard the start prior behind Cascadian. Is yet to win beyond 2200m, and is unraced at 3200m, which is definitely some concern but should get a good run from the gate. Will be in it for a long way but the last furlong will be the acid test.
6. Without A Fight (18) – $11
Jockey – William Buick 55.5kg
Trainer – Simon & Ed Crisford
British trained galloper who comes into this off the back of a Listed placing at Newmarket last start. Wasn’t beaten far in the Dubai Sheema Classic earlier this year, which is one of the best staying races in the world, and is no stranger to long distance contests. Will need some luck from the sticky gate but should have no problem measuring up here. In the mix.
The final field for the Lexus Melbourne Cup is set 🏆 (1/2) pic.twitter.com/pYI8ldwBNV
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 29, 2022
7. Camorra (17) – $51
Jockey – Ben Melham 55kg
Trainer – Ben & JD Hayes
Irish galloper who is now under the care of the Hayes team. Was no match last start in the Irish St Leger but was a strong victor the start prior in the Curragh Cup over 2816m. Another who will need luck from the wide draw, but has plenty of miles in his legs and is capable of finishing in the prize money.
8. Deauville Legend (9) – $3.80F
Jockey – Kerrin McEvoy 55kg
Trainer – James Ferguson
Lightly raced four year old who brings some very strong international form lines to the table here. Donkey-licked his rivals last start at York defeating Secret State and subsequent Cox Plate placegetter, El Bodegon. Heads into this eleven weeks between runs which is some concern, but comes with massive wraps and has the right man in the saddle. Must respect.
9. Stockman (2) – $31
Jockey – Sam Clipperton 54kg
Trainer – Joseph Pride
On the quick backup from Saturday where he charged home to be beaten less than 3L by Star Of India in the Rosehill Gold Cup. Win in the St Leger prior was strong and he gets to Flemington for the first time here which should suit. He may lack the class of some of his rivals, but handles all conditions and should be strong at the end of two miles.
10. Vow And Declare (4) – $19
Jockey – Blake Shinn 54kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner looks to be going as well, if not better, heading into this year’s race. He’s had the red light flashing in recent starts, including last start in the Caulfield Cup, where he had little go his way. Won’t spend a penny in the run from the good gate and is proven at the two miles. Plenty to like about his chances here.
11. Young Werther (21) – $34
Jockey – Damian Lane 54kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
Lightly raced five year old who has always competed at the top level despite only being a Geelong maiden winner. Raced handy and was far from disgraced last start in the Cox Plate. Races well here at Flemington and has always raced well when he’s got out over a trip. Two miles is uncharted territory and the gate is a shocker but he has the class and the turn of foot to be in the finish.
Melbourne Cup Field 2022 in Ballot Order. pic.twitter.com/rQzKTu4Pdx
— Trav Noonan (@TravTurf) October 29, 2022
12. Hoo Ya Mal (15) – $20
Jockey – Craig Williams 53.5kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
British galloper who has recently joined the powerful Waterhouse/Bott yard. Failed to fire last start in the English St Leger but was placed at every start prior to that, including a gallant second in the Epsom Derby. Wasn’t beaten far by race favourite, Deauville Legend, earlier in the year and Craig Williams is riding feature winners for fun at the moment. Looks to be one of the main hopes.
13. Serpentine (23) – $61
Jockey – John Allen 53.5kg
Trainer – Robert Hickmott
Former British galloper who has had a handful of runs in Australia. Led and fought on courageously in Saturday’s Archer Stakes here at Flemington behind Surefire. Had some brilliant form going back to 2020 in England, but hasn’t produced anything like that for some time and has drawn the car park here. Willing to go around him.
14. Daqiansweet Junior (13) – $34
Jockey – Daniel Moor 53kg
Trainer – Phillip Stokes
Former Kiwi who has an Adelaide Cup on his CV over this trip. His only other run at 3200m resulted in a good third in the Sydney Cup. Raced wide last start in the Bart Cummings and was entitled to stop and wasn’t far away from Smokin’ Romans prior. Although his form of late isn’t bad, this looks a lot tougher and he’s hard to have in the numbers.
15. Grand Promenade (1) – $81
Jockey – Harry Coffey 53kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Honest stayer who finished a distant fourth to Francesco Guardi last start at The Valley. Finished sixth in this race last year behind Verry Elleegant, but his lead up form was much stronger and he looks as though he’ll struggle here.
16. Arapaho (19) – $71
Jockey – Rachel King 52.5kg
Trainer – Bjorn Baker
Sydney sider who chased hard behind Stockman last start at Randwick. Finished back in the field prior to that in the Metropolitan. Not sure that’s the right form for this and he’s come up with a sticky gate. Happy to leave him out.
After a two-year hiatus, the Birdcage is back with a 💥 this Cup Carnival!@FlemingtonVRC | #MelbourneCup pic.twitter.com/nQVvTKIqvN
— World Horse Racing (@WHR) October 28, 2022
17. Emissary (3) – $31
Jockey – Patrick Moloney 51.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney
Came from well back in the field to score last start in the Geelong Cup and secure a start here. Should get a soft run from the low draw but probably needs to find a couple of lengths to be considered a winning chance and races better on top of the ground. Capable of running top ten.
18. Lunar Flare (12) – $16
Jockey – Michael Dee 51.5kg
Trainer – Grahame Begg
*This horse has since been scratched.*
Seven year old mare who has a brilliant record and rarely runs a bad race. Held off the late charge of Francesco Guardi two back here at Flemington before he turned the tables on her last start. Yet to be tried over two miles but is a two time winner at 2500m and comes from an astute yard. Not the worst.
19. Smokin’ Romans (16) – $20
Jockey – Jamie Kah 51.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Won the Naturalism before a dominant victory in the Turnbull two starts ago. Took a sit and wasn’t disgraced last start in the Caulfield Cup. Will hunt forward from the wide gate here and be in the race for a long way, but might be found wanting late.
20. Tralee Rose (22) – $91
Jockey – Dean Yendall 51.5kg
Trainer – Symon Wilde
Talented mare who finished ninth in this race last year. Hasn’t set the world on fire so far this prep, including a last start 13th in the Caulfield Cup. Needs to find on recent efforts and has been afforded no favours by Saturday’s barrier draw. Not overly keen.
21. Point Nepean (20) – $51
Jockey – Wayne Lordan 51kg
Trainer – Robert Hickmott
*This horse has since been scratched.*
Lightly raced gelding who hasn’t done much in two runs back this prep. Should be ready to peak now third up but this looks a tough assignment, especially from the wide gate. Others have more appeal.
The order of entry for the 2022 Lexus Melbourne Cup is locked in.#MelbCupCarnival pic.twitter.com/kdc8vwoTeJ
— Inside Run (@insiderun) October 29, 2022
22. High Emocean (8) – $41
Jockey – Teo Nugent 50kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Started short and got the job done in the Bendigo Cup last start. Brilliant win at Flemington three back over the 2500m. Steps up to two miles now which is a test in itself and takes on stronger opposition, but should get a nice run in transit and can run a cheeky race at big odds.
23. Interpretation (6) – $41
Jockey – Craig Newitt 50kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Former International who has been well supported at all three runs down under but is yet to deliver. Had excuses last start when pulling up lame in the Geelong Cup. Gets in light here with 50kg on his back and is a winner over 2816m in Ireland. Capable of running a cheeky race if he can find some of his better form.
24. Realm Of Flowers (5) – $13
Jockey – Damien Thornton 50kg
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman
Talented staying mare who finished a closing third in The Metropolitan last start. Bolted in the Andrew Ramsden here earlier this year over 2800m and has fared well from the barrier draw. Needs to run a career best to win this but is worth including in trifectas and first fours.
Final Word
It doesn’t get much bigger or better than this. Whether you’re a seasoned punter or a once a year $1 each way investor, the Melbourne Cup is certainly the one race that attracts everyone’s attention. This year’s race has once again brought together a capacity line up of local and international stayers, all looking for a slice of history.
Who finished the best? Vow And Declare looked to be coming on nicely. The extra distance in the Cup is going to suit. https://t.co/DwtHfHRdRZ
— The Horse 🐴 (@hearitfromhorse) October 29, 2022
Going to stick with the gut and put Vow And Declare on top. He of course won this race back in 2019 off the back of a close second in the Caulfield Cup. Although he finished sixth last start in that same race, he was desperately unlucky and feel he’s going as good if not better leading into this year’s Cup. He’ll spend no petrol from the good gate, is proven at two miles and looks very good value in the race.
Newmarket based galloper, Without A Fight, looks one of the main dangers. He’s an ultra consistent stayer who has plenty of miles in his legs and brings some strong form lines into this. He was beaten under six lengths in the Dubai Sheema Classic earlier this year, which in its own right, is one of the best staying races in the world on turf. He does have to overcome a sticky barrier, but with any luck, will be right in the finish.
Race favourite, Deauville Legend, is another who brings strong form to the table here. He was a dominant winner at York last start, defeating El Bodegon who was enormous in the Cox Plate. He comes into this 11 weeks between runs and is untried past 2600m which are concerns and although he looks hard to beat, is short enough in the market for mine.
Local mares Duais, Montefilia and Realm Of Flowers are all capable types and look well suited at the Flemington two miles. Numerian is racing well and will look the winner at some stage, the last furlong will be his test, and Interpretation can run into the placings on his best form. Suggest including these runners in all trifectas and first fours.
Melbourne Cup Numbers: 10-6-8-2
Best Melbourne Cup Tip
10. Vow And Declare – Each-way ($19/$5.50)
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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.
