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2022 Sydney Cup Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

The two million dollar Sydney Cup is a 3200m Group 1 handicap race, held at Royal Randwick racecourse on Day 2 of the Sydney Autumn racing carnival’s ‘The Championships’. The gruelling staying contest is one of only two Group 1’s held over the two  miles on the Australian racing calendar, the other being the Melbourne Cup.

Speaking of the Melbourne Cup, three time winner of that race, Makybe Diva, was successful in winning the Sydney Cup in 2004. And whilst three times W.S. Cox Plate winner, Kingston Town, was never able to claim a Melbourne Cup, he did win this race in 1980.

In stark contrast to that pair of champions, the 2021 Sydney Cup was taken out by the unheralded Selino, a winner of just two benchmark ratings races back in Europe before being imported to Australia where he won the staying feature of the Autumn carnival, but has failed to look like winning a race since.

Looking at the market for this year’s race, Dabble has noted wet tracker and last start runner up in the Tancred Stakes, Stockman, trained by Joe Pride as favourite. A former import in Crystal Pegasus is on the second line of betting for last year’s winning trainer, Chris Waller, whilst the Kris Lees trained Luncies has stormed up the market order with a return to form last start, after appearing to not be at home on the heavy ground at his start prior.

However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen, and with the rain continuing to stick around in Sydney, the heavy track can always throw up surprises. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Sydney Cup along with The Shark’s best tips. 

1. The Chosen One (5) – $12
Jockey – Hugh Bowman 56kg
Trainer – Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman

Dour Kiwi type with remarkably poor wet track stats. He copped a good squeeze at a vital stage in the Tancred Stakes, and whilst he was never going to catch the winner, he may have given Stockman a closer contest for the runner’s up cheque. Stockman however is a renowned swimmer, who gets a five kilo weight pull here so it is hard to see him turning the tables.

2. Daquiasweet Junior (7) – $23
Jockey – Kerrin McEvoy 51.5kg
Trainer – Phillip Stokes

The Adelaide Cup winner who has been nothing short of a revelation since joining the Phillip Stokes yard. A very handy late pick up ride for Kerrin McEvoy who is about as good as they come in feature races. He’s still treated well at the weights in spite of the penalty for his latest win but the real concern here is just the one win from 8 goes on rain affected ground. He’d be an absolute lock for the top 3 on good ground but he’s an inferior version of himself when you spit on the ground. Low flying, hard fit, worth including in your top 4 on those hard facts alone.

3. Knights Order (1) – $9.00
Jockey – Rachel King 51.5kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Last year’s Winter Cup winner which is quite fitting in the longest Sydney Autumn ever! He beat favourite Stockman fair and square on that occasion, he meets him just a half kilo worse at the weights for that win and he is going to get a very wintery track here. Very typical Waterhouse bone and muscle on pacer. He’s already a Group 2 winner at two mile which is a big tick and he has 7km in his legs this prep alone, all on heavy tracks. The added plus is I doubt there is a better front running rider in the country that can ride with 51.5kg than Rachel King. Profiles very well here.

4. Stockman (13) – $4.80F
Jockey – Alysha Collett 51kg
Trainer – Joe Pride

He has made some quantum leaps in his last two preps, firstly from a thereabouts stakes horse to a genuine Group class handicapper, and then at his latest effort he proved he was a force to be reckoned with in middle distance weight for age Group 1’s… provided he gets a heavy track. The improvement with patience is very typical of a Joe Pride galloper, just as it is a fact his horses thrive on wet tracks courtesy of his unique training regime.

I really doubt there’s anything in this race that can get within a bull’s roar of Duais at set weights, so his cheeky effort last week and the fact that Mount Popa doubled down on the formline with a very good win at his next start tells you this bloke is the one they all need to beat.

5. Crystal Pegasus (18) – $6.50
Jockey – Jamie Kah 51kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

He’s looked very good going about building the picket fence against inferior opposition but the reality is he meets some hardened stayers here who are much more likely than Daddozdart or Sacramento. He gets Jamie Kah again which is a huge plus in a lightly weighted handicap, but I don’t think even that’s enough.

6. Angel of Truth (3) – $31
Jockey – William Pike 51kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Tough stayer who went enormous first up then was no match for the first pair, but a margin to fourth in a strangely/tactically run WFA race his next outing. This sort of stuff is his go as he showed in the Derby but that was a while ago now. Probably should have won a Metrop in between but it is a long while between drinks and he’s probably wearing a bit thin. One for the wider exotics.

7. Sheraz (6) – $12
Jockey – Criag Williams 51kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

He’s been sound without being eye-catching. Another European who has been given one heck of an initiation on these Sydney Autumn carnival tracks. Looks to have plenty of ability but just hasn’t looked comfortable with our tracks. No doubt Craig Williams will give him every opportunity but you are pinning your hopes on a significant improvement and he just doesn’t quite look ready.

8. No Compromise (10) – $10
Jockey – Jay Ford 50.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Jay Ford has had just one winner from his last fifty rides which is a very ordinary statistic for a guy who regularly gets single figure odds rides in town and at the provincials, some as short as having an SP of $2.60 which he was still able to get beat on. And that’s simply not what you want to see for a Group 1 race that needs to be well thought out. Oddly enough, his last winner was this horse, and it was on a heavy track. But he was hard fit there, where the others who line up here were in the shallow end of their Sydney Cup campaigns. Can’t have him.

9. Luncies (14) – $10
Jockey – Robbie Dolan 50kg
Trainer – Kris Lees

Been a fan of this fellow for a while but was left scratching my head at his very plain effort two back. That was on a Rosehill Heavy, but we then saw him bounce back next start to what we should be expecting of him, which was interestingly on a Randwick Heavy. And if we have learnt anything over the Autumn to date, it is that they are two very different beasts.

You had to love the way he withered away at the line last start, almost as much as you love listening to Robbie Dolan sing romantic ballads at karaoke, or more importantly, the hunger with which the import jock attacks Group 1 races. He’s a little narrow at the weights and measures but he does look set to peak which counts for a kilo here and there. Definitely in the top 4.

10. Future Score (16) – $31
Jockey – Teodore Nugent 50kg
Trainer – Matt Cumani

Most of these have his measure on exposed form however he is a horse with shoeing issues that does have a good record on wet ground. That’s about the only push to suggest he’s worth thought in wider exotics.

11. Surefire (12) – $13
Jockey – Kathy O’Hara 50kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Ridden that touch closer and just niggled at last start, and perhaps a case of a touch flat second up when the quickened compared to what we saw first up. Really liked his Sydney Cup credentials prior to his debut but just wanted to see him have one, then he appeared at the furlong and blew them away. Looks very smart, and it would be a special scene to see Kathy O’Hara bag a G1 for Waller. Expect him to be fighting out the finish.

12. Tigertiger (2) – $34
Jockey – Dean Holland 50kg)
Trainer – Rob Blacker

Bad news for Richmond Tigers fans this week with Dusty Martin on an extended vacation in Sydney, whilst it’s basically just been bad news for Wests Tigers fans for the last decade. This fellow however does look to be going a sight better than the combined sum of that pair. The further they go, the better he gets, and whilst his efforts have been very bold to date, this is another step up again. Also with just average wet track stats, it is hard to see him turning the tables on some of these at the weights.

13. Chalk Stream (9) – $8.50
Jockey – Damien Thornton 50kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Has done it tough in the two Aussie runs to date but has certainly looked the dour two mile slugfest type that is up for this. The one concern is he just hasn’t seemed comfortable getting around our tracks. It would seem unlikely the going would be an issue, so perhaps it is more to do with the tighter spaces and our racing pattern. That said, you can expect the further they go, the more it is going to be to his liking. Include in your wider exotics, but I’m leaning more to the locals in this.

14. Alakahan (4) – $101
Jockey – Fred Kersley 50kg
Trainer – Richard and Will Freedman 

Fourth, but a well beaten fourth, at his latest outing, and that’s been his best effort in a while. Looking elsewhere.

15. Le Baol (19) – $51
Jockey – Louise Day 50kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Certainly shown glimpses of brilliance but has failed to put two runs together over here. Just the two runs past a mile this time which although is not a typical prep, it is pretty hard to knock the processes of this barn. Has a future but might not be seasoned enough just yet.

16. Dadoozdart (17) – $81
Jockey – Brock Ryan 50kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Probably going a bit better than his run of outs would suggest but he’s probably out of his depth here.

17. Kaapfever (8) – $126
Jockey – Tyler Schiller 50kg
Trainer – Joe Pride

Can bob up in a mid week staying race around Warwick Farm, but he looks very unlikely here.

18. Sweet Thomas (11) – $101
Jockey – James Innes Jr 50kg
Trainer – Matthew Smith

They should have saved themselves the acceptance fee.

19. South Pacific (15) – $126
Jockey – Andrew Gibbons 50kg
Trainer – Richard Litt

Trainer Richard Litt has made the big call to take the blinkers off for here. Unless that improves him 15 lengths, he’ll be lucky to beat the ambulance home.

Final Word

Generally speaking, trying to narrow down your Sydney Cup picks to a workable number for your quaddie is about as enticing as a trip to the dentist for a couple of root canals. But I think we have it here in four.

Stockman is undoubtedly the horse they have to beat and it would be a real exclamation mark on the career of Joe Pride who, like his former master J J Size, is one of the most unique, creative, and fascinating conditioners we’ve seen in this country in the past half a century.

Just like his other star Eduardo who is more at home on a heavy ten over six furlongs, you are pretty much going to get the same thing here from Stockman who will be dogged for every stride from barrier to box over the Royal Randwick two mile and even more so if they ran the race from the Coogee Bay Hotel beer garden, across the foreshore, and out and around Wedding Cake Island and back.

But the good old Warwick Farm boy from Western Sydney is playing on Gai’s home ground here, and if there’s been two trainer’s that can get them fitter than Joe and J.J. it has to be Gai and T.J.

Knight’s Order has the bone ‘n’ muscle stamp tattooed on his forehead, I love the choice of rider, love the miles he’s got in his legs, and I can just see him bouncing to lead under King from gate 1 and it becoming a matter of who’s going to run second when she boots clear at the corner.

Expect withering challenges from Luncies and Surefire late and if you can frame a market of your own around these two, plus Knights Order winning, and saving on Stockman to break square, I think you’ve got it right.

Best Sydney Cup Tip: 3. Knights Order – Each-way ($9.00/$3.00)
Sydney Cup Numbers: 3-4-11-9

If you need more news, information and tips, head over to our Sydney Cup page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.