The 2021 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes has attracted an outstanding capacity field of 16 plus one wildcard emergency, with some stars of the turf clashing for the $1 million up for grabs.
Last year’s winner Behemoth is well fancied to go back-to-back, with major rivals Beau Rossa and Probabeel also prominent in the market, with all three runners under $6.50 in the market at the time of writing (Thursday afternoon).
The wildcard could be the emergency, the progressive four-year-old I’m Thunderstruck, who is sure to make his presence felt if he gains a start.
Let’s dive into our runner-by-runner analysis of the 2021 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes!
1. Behemoth (3) – $6.50
Jockey – Craig Williams
Trainer – David Jolly
He’s tracking well for back-to-back wins in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, so far replicating his build-up from last preparation with wins in the Spring Stakes (1200m) and the Memsie Stakes (1400m). Willo should be able to use the gate and get him somewhere forward of midfield, and he looks a mighty strong chance here.
2. Probabeel (2) – $5.50
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – Jamie Richards
Resumed with an emphatic win in the Cockram Stakes (1200m) last outing when first up, and she’s hitting this second up, which is arguably when she does her best work. She’s undefeated here at Caulfield and Prebble is just about the best jockey in Victoria on current form. Will be right in the finish and it will take a monster effort to beat her.
Sixth Group win for Savabeel 5yo PROBABEEL in the Gr3 Cockram Stakes.@JamieRichards3 @LaneDamian @CambridgeStud @KarakaChat @TeAkauRacing @WaikatoStud @NZTM_TWEET
— Pedigree Update (@pedigreeupdate) August 28, 2021
3. Streets Of Avalon (14) – $51
Jockey – Damien Oliver
Trainer – Shane Nichols
He’s an absolute warrior and track and distance specialist, and interestingly gets D Oliver onboard. However, he’s severely outclassed and the price is about right.
4. Dalasan (16) – $61
Jockey – Ben Allen
Trainer – Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas
It’s a big price for a quality animal, but gate 16 makes it very tough and he certainly doesn’t win out of turn. Could be worth throwing into exotics.
5. Beau Rossa (1) – $4.80
Jockey – Linda Meech
Trainer – Will Clarken
Actually beat Behemoth home in the Spring Stakes but the result was overturned on protest, and he was desperately unlucky in the Memsie Stakes when he encountered traffic at a crucial stage. Meech is a tremendous rider of on-pacers, surely she’ll use the gate here and he will be very tough to run down.
6. Buffalo River (4) – $20
Jockey – Patrick Moloney
Trainer – Michael Moroney
Very strong over the 1400m and is always ready to go first up. Not sure he has the class of some of these, and he does his best work when he strikes a surface with a bit of give in it, which he won’t get here. Happy to risk.
7. Sierra Sue (10) – $14
Jockey – Daniel Moor
Trainer – Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young
Won the P.B. Lawrence Stakes well at this track and trip two back and there’s a case to be made that she should have won the Feehan Stakes last outing behind Superstorm and Elephant when she ran up nothing but backsides in the straight. Worth throwing into exotics.
Superstorm wins the Feehan and a ticket to the @CoxPlate! 👏 @DOBrienRacing @TheValley
pic.twitter.com/CaTJQw8aEs— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 4, 2021
8. Groundswell (9) – $26
Jockey – Damien Thornton
Trainer – Anthony and Sam Freedman
Should sit on speed and provide some nuisance value at the front of the pack, but looks out of his depth here and will be a roadblock late when he runs out of steam.
9. Aysar (13) – $41
Jockey – Harry Coffey
Trainer – Ben and JD Hayes
It’s a big price for this galloper but he doesn’t win out of turn and underachieved in his three-year-old campaign. This looks really tough but he could run a hole at a price if everything goes his way.
10. Irish Flame (5) – $41
Jockey – Matty Cartwright
Trainer – Brett Scott
Ran really well first up in the Chautauqua Stakes, but is better over further and is not a major player here.
11. Romancer (8) – $46
Jockey – Michael Dee
Trainer – Grahame Begg
Looks outclassed here, has no chance. OTI may even scratch him to give I’m Thunderstruck a start if they’re that way inclined.
12. Samizdat (6) – $27
Jockey – Craig Newitt
Trainer – Chris and Michael Gangemi
Brings some rock solid Perth form and isn’t to be discounted in exotics at the price. The 1400m does look a bit of a stretch, most of his best work is over the 1200m.
13. Amish Boy (15) – $14
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Trainer – Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Promising type who resumed really well in The Heath behind Masked Crusader and should have some residual fitness from his Queensland winter campaign. However, is up against it from the wide draw and would need to go to a new career peak to win.
Third Group win for Toronado 5yo MASKED CRUSADER in the Gr3 Heath Stakes.@HawkesRacing @inglis_sales @GilgaiFarm @cameroncookebl @SwettenhamStud @AlShaqabRacing pic.twitter.com/wOzItXO34F
— Pedigree Update (@pedigreeupdate) August 28, 2021
14. Dice Roll (7) – $26
Jockey – Fred Kersley
Trainer – Nick Ryan
Was a progressive type during the winter and showed good ability, but this is an optimistic assignment first up from Nick Ryan.
15. Regardsmaree (11) – $31
Jockey – Dean Holland
Trainer – Nick Ryan
Another promising type from the Nick Ryan camp, has been around the mark this preparation but would need to improve significantly to be in with a chance here.
16. Poland (12) – $31
Jockey – Teo Nugent
Trainer – Michael Moroney
Talented rising four year old who will be up on top of the speed and will give a massive effort. Will be better over the mile third up.
17e. I’m Thunderstruck (17) – $8.50
Jockey – Jye McNeil
Trainer – Mick Price and Mick Kent Jnr
Has untapped ability, could be he best four-year-old in the country and should make his presence felt if he gains a start. However has drawn the carpark which as us leaning towards others this time around.
Final Word
The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes has an outstanding field, with strong arguments to be made for the four gallopers in single figures – Behemoth, Probabeel, Beau Rossa, and I’m Thunderstruck.
The two gallopers in this group with Group 1 runs on the board are Behemoth and Probabeel, with the Kiwi mare hitting this in peak condition second up, with the most in-form rider in Victoria onboard. Behemoth has shown some signs of vulnerability, being beaten past the post in the Spring Stakes by Beau Rossa, who was again unlucky in the Memsie Stakes.
We’re going to side with the star mare Probabeel here, but only just, with Behemoth, and Beau Rossa sure to be right in the finish.
Best Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Tip: Probabeel – Win ($5.50).
If you want to check out our Runner-By-Runner analysis of the George Main Stakes, click here!
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.