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We have studied the form from all races across the country for Saturday, May 7, and provided our best horse racing tips.
All talks of COVID hangovers and Pfizer fogs are long forgotten when we head back to the Gold Coast Turf Club this week for a sold out Hollindale Stakes meeting. One of the holiday coast’s prime feature meets.
The Brisbane Winter Carnival is back in full swing circa 2022 and whilst last year’s Hollindale Stakes was an act of callous brutality as Zaaki lethally branded his authority on the Australian middle distance weight for age scene, race fans are frothing at the corners of their mouths to see it all go down again.
Is he the best of good things we’ve seen this calendar year? Or have we found one better? The answers lie below.
We have made five selections in total and are confident that we have found you some winners! So, read on below to find our best horse racing tips for this Saturday, May 7.
Gosford, Race 5 – 14. Hameron ($2.80)
Not thrilled by the rider choice here but I’m going to give this bloke another chance simply for the fact he has plenty of upside, and the form has stood up out of his last start defeat.
We were heavily invested there but were just outsmarted by yet another heady ride from Rachel King.
She looks like the one to catch again here, and whilst it is fraught with danger to expect a better ride from Jay Ford than we got from J Mac, I think the horse can atone in a pretty weak and quite oddly programmed Saturday low benchmark stayers race.
Gosford, Race 6 – 12. Hollywood North ($10/$3.30)
If there is one substitute for quality it has to be race fitness.
There might be a few better credentialled horses up the weights here, but this Chris Waller trained son of Vancouver is rock hard fit, a winner of his past two, and remarkably well weighted compared to some of his rivals who have lobbed places here and there in traditionally poor form reference stakes races.
Avdulla takes over from Tommy Berry which is no slight, and I’d fancy there’s at least a milkshake on the line here given their recent rivalry.
These tracks are still very testing so fitness carries more weight than quality in my book, particularly in a BM72 mile, and Hollywood North ticks that box despite blowing in early betting.
There’s only one they want to back at this stage and that is Diamil on account of the fact she beat Main Stage last start. But I tend to think that form is over-stated given Main Stage has gone back to back in a couple of ten furlong mid week races in which Rachel King outsmarted them carving out snail like sections in front.
Really, really good price on offer early doors in a race where just about everything is out the gate.
Gold Coast, Race 6 – 1. Gypsy Goddess ($1.85)
The draw is probably not ideal, nor is the fact that I can’t actually recall William Pike having ridden at the Gold Coast, but it’s Pikey! And you don’t get the nickname ‘The Wizard’ for nothing.
I’m not sure he’s going to need too many magic tricks here, in fact all he has to do is give this filly an even chance and she will simply be too good for them.
Qld filly Gypsy Goddess will likely be a surprise starter @GCTurfClub this w’end – William Pike rides – blinkers off – initial plan was to go Roses / Oaks – she may now miss Roses @RadioTABAus @xlb_nathan @SkyRacingAU – D Vandyke will elaborate with me this AM on Racing Active pic.twitter.com/vrFilnfMSX
— STEVE HEWLETT 🏇🎣 🛥📻🏃♂️👱♀️ (@stevejoseph69) May 2, 2022
I anticipate they’ll probably elect to press on here and be handy like they did in the Oaks rather than risk getting back from the bad draw around the tight Bundall circuit. Definitely some risk there, which is why you are shopping slightly worse than even money in early markets, but I still think she wins with whatever way the race pans out.
Gold Coast, Race 8 – 1. Zaaki ($1.60)
He’s well into the red and I expect him to shorten further but no matter how many ways you map this race or envision it panning out, it is almost impossible to see him getting beat.
I don’t think there’s anything good enough or fit enough to try and carve out stupid sectionals in front and try and hold on, and worst case scenario he lands 3rd pair back the fence if a couple come out positive and there’s nothing that can quicken with him even if that’s the case.
Which I doubt McDonald would allow to happen. I imagine he gets the suck run behind the leader, and they go a touch early and he’ll win somewhere close to the margin he did last year.
Anyone who is trying to tip you Aytron has absolute rocks in their head. He’s second up, never seen the trip, beat Streets of Avalon who hasn’t won a race in over a year first up and the 3rd horse is barely a stakes horse whose last win was a BM78 win and they are hoping to beat a horse that was equal favourite in a Cox Plate until he came out race morning. It simply won’t happen.
Short enough, but it would be harder to bend over and pick it up off the ground then it would be to sit back and back this bloke on Dabble app. The best bet of the calendar year to date.
Caulfield, Race 7 – 9. Wairere Falls ($14/$3.50)
Quite the anomaly here with a kiwi bred horse that doesn’t go in the wet, having to head to Melbourne to find a dry track. What are the odds?
He is certainly fit enough, let’s just put the pen through his run in the Group 2 Ajax on the heavy and go off his two runs prior to that. They have him right in the mix here, back to the mile which is his niche distance, and Blake McDougall is up.
He looked gamer then Ned Kelly winning the last of the carnival down the outside fence at Warrnambool. Not sure he’ll require such tactics here but expect this horse to come with a withering run late at value odds.
Best Bet – 1. Zaaki (Gold Coast, Race 8)
Next Best – 1. Gypsy Goddess (Gold Coast, Race 6)
Best Roughie – 9. Wairere Falls (Caulfield, Race 7)
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Dabble.