Whilst many consider the Golden Slipper a throw at the dart board with a full field of lightly raced two year olds, generally speaking the Sires Produce provides a much sounder betting proposition with a last start run in a high pressure Group 1 race to benchmark your form off, as well as the simple fact that some horses just aren’t bred to run flat strap at six furlongs before they are three.
Enter the Sires Produce into the mix and you are starting to talk horses that are bred to get a ‘classics’ trip a three, and things that have hit the line well over unsuitable trips their previous starts. The big conundrum from there is, have they got one more in them? Or are they ready for the paddock?
Looking at the market, Dabble has Golden Slipper winner, Fireburn, firmly entrenched as favourite and why not? With the way she attacked the line over 1200m last start and the wet weather still hanging around. But there are plenty of others looking to stake their claim at very juicy odds, made up largely of interstate raiders ready to pounce on some of the Sydney Autumn carnival riches.
However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen and with the wet weather sticking around in Sydney, the heavy track can throw up some interesting results. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Sires Produce Stakes along with The Shark’s best tips.
1. Daumier (11) – $9.00
Jockey – Mark Zahra 56.5kg
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman
“One thing he does, he has a crack every time he goes to the races.”
Despite drawing a tricky gate, Blue Diamond winner Daumier is fit & firing ahead of the Inglis Sires’ on Saturday 🔥
@FreedmanRacing pic.twitter.com/pJMgrdwdEv— Racing.com (@Racing) March 30, 2022
He was dogged in the run to the line that resembled a heavyweight bout in the Blue Diamond. Presented very early, most likely with the hope that his sheer courage would shine through again in the Slipper but the heavy track just drained his gas late. He’s a talent, but I don’t think he’s going to get any respite from mud this week and there’s just a couple, although probably less talented, that handle the ground better.
2. Shalatin (1) – $26
Jockey – Nash Rawiller 56.5kg
Trainer – Joseph Pride
I think he would have gone very close in the Slipper had he gone around. I think he gets through the heavy, and I think he’s been crying out for 1400m. The missed run on a testing track could be a blessing, then again being short of residual fitness could be the curse. And then we are gambling on whether he has overcome the farrier’s prick or not.
History tells us Joe’s horses excel in Group 1’s run on heavy tracks, and the fact he has very limited success at top level with two year old’s will tell you he is a more patient trainer than most. With that in mind, you’ve got to think this bloke is right, and here to win, and if that’s the case, he is silly odds. Definitely worth an each way ticket and including in multiples.
3. Let’srollthedice (7) – $14
Jockey – Damian Lane 56.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien
He was a length off them at the 100m on debut at Bendigo and ended up winning by 3.5L. That was on a heavy and he simply could not have performed any better on that day. Very impressive again when running them down in the VRC Sires. Bred to get the trip, bred to get through the ground, and Damian Lane has not let him out of his sights. A lot to like.
4. Counttheheadlights (13) – $15
Jockey – Jamie Kah 56.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Got a long way back in the Blue Diamond, but others were better there, and it’s fair to expect they will be again here, even in spite of the Maher/Eustace polish.
5. Millane (3) – $16 – Scratched
Jockey – Luke Nolen 56.5kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody
Switched off nicely and found the line strongly on debut down the straight five at Flemington. This however is a very different beast. Certainly has a future, but this seems an odd race to target second up, racing in a different direction, around a bend, with a colt out of a speed sire. Prefer others.
6. Man in the Mirror (2) – $26
Jockey – Hugh Bowman 56.5kg
Trainer – Annabel Neasham
Does his best racing on good tracks, and failed to run the 1400m last start. Looking elsewhere.
7. Magic (8) – $15
Jockey – William Pike 56.5kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Definitely the best bred horse in the race, and his pedigree ticks a lot of boxes in the ground and extending the trip. Really liked the way he ate both the mud and the ground up on debut, then probably too close in the run to finish off second up. He’s in the top 4, but let’s give him one more run and either keep him safe for the Champagne Stakes, or better still, back him now in that race at juicy odds.
8. Warby (10) – $23
Jockey – John Allen 56.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Bungled the start in the Black Opal and was eye-catching when attacking the line late, but I doubt that’s the right race to come out of for this.
9. Wealthy Investor (9) – $101
Jockey – Joshua Parr 56.5kg
Trainer – Damien Lane
Still a maiden and has had a look in easier races than this. Not today.
10. Showcourt (5) – $8.50
Jockey – James McDonald 56.5kg
Trainer – Chirs Waller
Genuine excuses and then some his only two to date. Good case to say he should have won at least one, perhaps both. Be very surprised if he doesn’t feature heavily in his next two starts.
11. Brosnan (4) – $31
Jockey – Tim Clark 56.5kg
Trainer – Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou
Probably didn’t appreciate the lack of racing room late in the VRC Sires but there were others going better than him that are lining up here. Looking elsewhere.
12. Fireburn (6) – $2.40
Jockey – Brenton Avdulla 54.5kg
Trainer – Gary Portelli
10 years ago Pierro for @GaiWaterhouse1 and @nashhot won the @inglis_sales Sires’ after claiming the #GoldenSlipper.
Can Fireburn do the same on Saturday at #RoyalRandwick after winning the @Longines #GoldenSlipper for @GaryPortelli and @brentonavdulla ? #TheStar #ChampsDay1 pic.twitter.com/9rUNkRle8r
— Australian Turf Club (@aus_turf_club) March 30, 2022
Racey filly who put the picket fence up with a Slipper win and whilst the stable does a great job with their two year old’s, I have seen this type of thing before, a filly not going around a horse in a two year old Group 1, that has failed to go on to win another race. I’m not saying she’s that, but I will be backing two or three others at much more generous odds than what is on offer here for a one that has come out of a pretty weak rendition of a great race.
13. She’s Extreme (12) – $8.50
Jockey – Tommy Berry – 54.5kg
Trainer – Anthony Cummings
She had genuine excuses in the Slipper, she was impressive when winning in her start prior to that, but was no match for Fireburn when they clashed. And if we are potting her, we’ve got to take her on as well. I’m tipping she’ll finish in front of Fireburn this time, but they’ll both find at least a couple better.
Final Word
It’s a really great rendition of this time honoured race. It does fall away with the last three or four in the market but aside from that it is extremely open but we are going to go with some more obscure form lines and with those trending upward rather than risking the ones that have had one too many.
Let’s take the two fillies on out of the Slipper and look to the less fashionable VRC Sires Produce for the winner. Let’srollthedice was clinical in his precision in that race and he was quite mind blowing the way he accelerated away from them on debut in the heavy, albeit against far more moderate opposition.
He goes on top. I’m taking no chances with the Waller runner Showcourt who I’d be happy to take half odds that he wins one of his next two. And I was on Shalatin in the Slipper before he came out on race day, and I still think his form lines on fair going are the best to go off of what we’ve seen so far. He could well be a first or last job giving his issues but keep him safe.
Throw in Magic and the two fillies, Fireburn, She’s Extreme for your exotics.
Best Sires Produce Stakes Tip: 3. Let’srollthedice – Each-way ($14/$3.90)
If you need more news, information and tips, head over to our Sires Produce Stakes page for all your punting needs!
*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.
