Western Australia’s TABtouch Masters continues this Saturday with the running of the 1200m Winterbottom Stakes, worth $1M! While the milers and middle distance runners had their fun last week and will have another go next week in the Kingston Town Classic, this weekend is all about the sprinters, with a capacity field of 16 set to line up.
Looking at the market, Dabble has a clear favourite, Elite Street ($2.40). After an unsuccessful trip out East earlier this year, Elite Street has come back in incredible order this time around, winning three straight races. However, he does have some competition for the race. Wilchino ($4.40) has won six straight races, while Graceful Girl ($8) was less than a length off the favourite last start and loves 1200m.
However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen and it isn’t just down to those three! So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you! Read on below to find out runner by runner preview of the 2021 Winterbottom Stakes along with The Shark’s Winterbottom Stakes best tips.
1. Rock Magic (7) – $35
Jockey – Jarrad Noske
Trainer – Chris & Michael Gangemi
The 12-year-old gelding will be looking to end his career with a bang, looking to take out the Winterbottom Stakes after coming 3rd in this race the last two years. He has finished in the top 3 in 8 of his 12 third up runs and has great form on good tracks, but he may be too far past it now.
2. Elite Street (10) – $2.40
Jockey – Brad Rawiller
Trainer – Daniel Morton
The defending champion is in incredible order this prep, winning all three of his runs and being very deserving of favouritism for this year’s Winterbottom Stakes. He has already faced most of the rivals in his previous three runs and beat them, indicating that he should be too good yet again. But, at $2.40, there is a reason to find some holes. He only has one win and one second from six runs at the distance and has had one 4th up run where he didn’t even place.
3 stakes wins in a row as Elite Street proves too strong in Group 3 @EurozHartleys Colonel Reeves S. at Ascot. Taking earnings over $1m, the @MortonRacing trained 5YO is by @godolphin‘s Street Boss (56 SWs), from a daughter of 4-time GW Ateates & raced by breeders Anita Vale Stud pic.twitter.com/VQcfplanaH
— Aushorse (@Aushorse_TBA) November 13, 2021
3. Red Can Man (11) – $14
Jockey – Shaun McGruddy
Trainer – Steve Wolfe
While Elite Street didn’t have a successful trip out East, Red Can Man certainly did, winning a G3 and coming 3rd in a G2. He has only missed a place twice from 14 runs at Ascot and has three wins and a third from five 2nd up runs. The worry is, he is yet to place from three runs at G1 level, meaning he may not be up to this.
4. Laverrod (8) – $51
Jockey – Jordan Turner
Trainer – Sean & Jake Casey
Laverrod may be over the odds here. He was less than 3L off Elite Street last time out and he has exceptional stats for this race. He has finished in the top two in three of four 3rd up runs, has finished in the top two in all four of his runs over the Ascot 1200m circuit and has two wins and three placings from seven runs this calendar year.
5. Money Matters (6) – $51
Jockey – Craig Staples
Trainer – Chris & Michael Gangemi
Money Matters is another over the odds, considering he was also in that 2-3L back group in the Colonel Reeves last time out and is now 3rd up, where he is a perfect 3/3. He is also a perfect 2/2 at the Ascot 1200m circuit and his barrier allows him to stalk to pace and burst home.
6. Indian Pacific (12) – $16
Jockey – Brad Parnham
Trainer – Neville Parnham
Indian Pacific may have finished second in a 1200m G1 at Flemington during the Autumn, but that may have been a lesser Melbourne G1. He is also 3rd up here where he only had two third from three runs. He also hasn’t placed over 1200m at Ascot and may not be able to make up the 2L he finished behind Elite Street last start.
7. Outrageous (14) – $101
Jockey – Lucy Warwick
Trainer – Luke Fernie
Outrageous will be having his first run for Luke Fernie and it may not be a good one. While he did win when first up this time last year, that was just a BM90. He also has just two third placings from four runs at the distance.
8. Cup Night (13) – $27
Jockey – Patrick Carbery
Trainer – Bernie Miller
Cup Night is an exceptional fresh horse, with a record of 8:3-2-1. The Ascot 1200m is also his best go and he has had three great trials, including a win in the most recent one, meaning he will be rock-hard fit for this.
9. Stageman (15) – $17
Jockey – Clint Johnston-Porter
Trainer – Adam Durrant
Stageman may prefer the track to have a bit more give in it, but he is no slouch on dry tracks either. He also has a great connection with Clint Johnston-Porter, coming top three in all three of their runs together, including a win. He also has a win and a second from two 4th up runs and you could argue he would have done better than just 2L off the pace in the Colonel Reeves if he didn’t run up backsides for the entire straight.
Finish worthy of the race name as Stageman storms home in the Listed Black Heart Bart S. at Belmont. Bred by Gainsborough Lodge, Stageman was sold at @inglis_sales Classic ($64k) & then Ready To Run ($310k to @BelmontBldstck) but has since won over $400k. #ItPaysToBuyAustralian pic.twitter.com/CIlEdzlZSF
— Aushorse (@Aushorse_TBA) September 26, 2020
10. Carocapo (3) – $126
Jockey – Jason Brown
Trainer – Jim Taylor
Carocapo was actually 5th in the Colonel Reeves, finishing a lot better than most of the others in this race. He also has a win and two thirds from three 4th up runs and 1200m is certainly his go, given 8 of his 9 career wins have come at the distance. However, he has never run above G3 level where he hasn’t placed from three runs at the level.
11. Iseered Iseered (5) – $41
Jockey – Mitchell Pateman
Trainer – Luke Fernie
It is hard to consider Iseered Iseered here. While he won three straight races leading into the Colonel Reeves, he finished over two lengths back there and is now 5th up from a spell. He also only has one win from three runs at the distance and that win was in stakes grade, meaning this is a massive step up here.
12. Long Beach (9) – $51
Jockey – Shaun O’Donnell
Trainer – Chris & Michael Gangemi
Long Beach was exceptional in the Colonel Reeves. While he was fading towards the end of his run and steps up an extra 100m here, he was three wide without cover there. He also has two wins from four 2nd up runs and is 3:1-0-1 over the Ascot 1200m circuit. He has proven he is up to it and gets a soft draw, but it is just whether he can run at a peak level again this Saturday.
13. River Beau (17) – $251
Jockey – Jason Whiting
Trainer – Bruce Watkins
River Beau was another to finish strongly in the Colonel Reeves, but it is hard to see how he makes up the 2.5L in this one. He does have a perfect 3rd up record, with four seconds from four runs, but he is unplaced in his only run at the distance and he only has an 18% ROI for his career.
14. Flirtini (4) – $8
Jockey – Troy Turner
Trainer – Simon Miller
Flirtini is a bit of a fan favourite but she may not be in her best condition this prep. She hasn’t finished better than 7th in all three of her runs and is just 5:1-1-0 when 4th up. She may not be up to it over 1200m against some of these, anymore.
15. Graceful Girl (18) – $8
Jockey – William Pike
Trainer – Grant & Alana Williams
Graceful Girl came from a long way back in the Colonel Reeves, running the best last 400m of the day to finish just 0.63L off the pace. Looking ahead to this weekend, she has some things in her favour for the Winterbottom. She is 1/1 4th up, she is 4/4 over 1200m, and she has the Wizard steering her home.
🗣️”She’s pretty exciting, every time we’ve raised the bar, she’s gotten over it comfortably, she keeps out of trouble, that’s her biggest asset”
Dan Morton on WILCHINO ahead of the Winterbottom Stakes.#Bensley@AndrewBensley
📱SEN App
💬0499 736 736 pic.twitter.com/cdPToCukFy— SENTrack (@SEN_track) November 22, 2021
16. Wilchino (1) – $4.20
Jockey – Chris Parnham
Trainer – Daniel Morton
The X-factor runner, Wilchino has won six straight races, with the most recent of those being over 1200m. She has won eight of her 11 runs in her career and she is 5/6 at Ascot. This is clearly her toughest test to date, but there is a reason she is a short-priced second favourite despite this.
17e. Triple Missile (16) – $21
Jockey – TBC
Trainer – Lindsey Smith
Triple Missile finished behind Wilchino in each of his last two runs, including being 2.4L back last start over 1200m. Needs luck to get in as first emergency and has also never raced this deep into a prep before either.
18e. All Day Session (2) – $251
Jockey – TBC
Trainer – Ashley Maley
He is second emergency, so needs luck to get in, and then, as we say, will need even more luck even if he does.
Final Word
Six horses have been able to win the Winterbottom Stake more than once, with three of those winning in back to back years. Elite Street will be looking to be the seventh and fourth of those, respectively. However, we are looking for some better value around the favourite, especially considering he has missed a place in four of six runs over 1200m and hasn’t placed in his only 4th up run. Plus, there hasn’t been a winner over the last five years with a price under $5.
If we are avoiding the favourite, there are some clear standout options. Wilchino has won six straight starts, but this is a massive step up in grade. Graceful Girl has perfect stats for 1200m runs but she also has never contested anything more than a G3, where she came second to Elite Street in the Colonel Reeves. If we were picking out of those two, Graceful Girl is the clear option with Pike on board, but we are looking for even more value, with a horse that was extremely unlikely last start.
Stageman is a big go here. If you go back and watch the Colonel Reeves, he got boxed in for a run and lost all momentum, unable to break free at all in the straight. He still managed to finish under 2.5L off the pace and now that he is up to 1200m, he could burst given he has finished in the top two in six of his nine runs at the distance. He also has an incredible connection with Johnston-Porter, finishing in the top three in all three wins underneath the star hoop, including a win. We think that if Johnston-Porter is able to give Stageman a great steer, find clear air entering the straight and let the horse take over, then he will have a great chance of being in the finish, especially considering his place odds are more than each of the two favourites’ odds to win.
Best Winterbottom Stakes Tip: Stageman (Each-Way – $17/$4.40)
If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Winterbottom Stakes page for all your punting needs!
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Dabble.
