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While there is a bigger 1200m race on the card, The Kosciuszko is such an important race for the industry, highlighting the incredible work that country trainers put into their horses that typically goes unrecognized. We have analysed every horse in the race and have found one at big odds that could run a big race, so don’t miss out on our runner by runner preview.
Sportsbet currently have Handle The Truth, the 2019 winner, as $4.40 favourite, with Edit just behind in the market. The bookies clearly think that there are four main chances for the race, given there are four priced $7 or less, with the next closest at double figure odds. Does the market have it right? We don’t think so!
Read on below to find out runner by runner preview and best tips for the 2021 edition of The Kosciuszko!
1. Handle The Truth (1) – $4.40
Jockey – Nash Rawiller
Trainer – Keith Dryden
His record this prep may not be eye-catching but that is because Handle The Truth has been racing against horses lining up in The Everest. A 4.4L fourth to Nature Strip first up doesn’t seem impressive but it may be good enough form for him to win here. Nash Rawiller is flying at the moment and the 2019 winner of this race has exceptional form on heavy tracks, the query is he hasn’t won third up from six tries.
“I think I’ve got him spot on, I’m pretty happy with him.”
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 14, 2021
2. Front Page (SCR)
3. Art Cadeau (3) – $6.50
Jockey – Tommy Berry
Trainer – Terry Robinson
Art Cadeau is clearly the form horse in the race, despite coming into it first up. He has finished in the top two in all 11 of his career runs, winning five and coming second in six. Will he be wound up enough off just one trial, with his last run being all the way back in April?
4. Plonka (7) – $34
Jockey – Joshua Parr
Trainer – Warren Gavenlock
Plonka hasn’t had the best form coming into this, coming eighth and fifth in his first two runs this preparation. He seems to prefer good tracks better and may be out of his depth here.
5. Aheadofhistime (9) – $61
Jockey – Jeff Penza
Trainer – Trevor Hardy
This five-year-old gelding seems to do his best work early and has been freshened for the race, having five weeks between competitive runs. Another think working in his favour is that five of his six career wins have come on rain affected ground, meaning the track should be playing perfectly for him. Is fair enough in the market considering this is a step up from what he is used to, but it wouldn’t surprise if he featured in the minor placings.
6. Spiranac (8) – $7
Jockey – James McDonald
Trainer – Rodney Northam
Spiranac has good career stats of six wins from 14 starts and is 3:2-0-1 third up, indicating she could be ready to burst here, but has better stats on dry ground. The booking of McDonald is clearly something to look out for here but the conditions may not suit.
7. Edit (11) – $4.80
Jockey – Hugh Bowman
Trainer – Cody Morgan
Edit looks ready to win here in The Kosciuzko. He won by two lengths first up over 1200m, has finished in the top two in all four of his runs at the distance and has won on a rain affected track before. He has drawn wide but is a backmarker and just needs to find a back to peel off in the straight, which Hugh Bowman is more than capable of doing.
It’s the biggest day on the NSW Racing Calendar and Cody Morgan will be in the thick of it with two horses in Saturday’s Kosciuszko. pic.twitter.com/ti9Q4ilrNH
— PRIME7 News Tamworth (@PRIME7Tamworth) October 12, 2021
8. Ice In Vancouver (12) – $26
Jockey – Tim Clark
Trainer – Cody Morgan
The lightly run Ice In Vancouver could make a bit of a splash here at odds. Has been kept fresh for this intentionally, as he is 2/2 when first up from a spell. He has had two runs on soft tracks and won one of those, and at $26/$8, looks a blowout chance for the exotics.
9. Island Bay Boy (10) – $23
Jockey – Jason Collett
Trainer – Tony Sergi
Island Bay Boy is one of the only runners that has won on both soft AND heavy tracks, meaning he should be able to handle whatever Randwick has to throw at him. Jason Collett is a great booking and given he is eight weeks between runs, with some trials in there, and has won first up previously, he could cause an upset.
10. Nadaraja (2) – $11
Jockey – Matthew Palmer
Trainer – Stephen Jones
With only four career runs, Nadaraja is the x-factor runner. He has three wins and a second but has never raced at 1200m before. However, he does have a win on a heavy track and given his three career wins have been by a combined 9.6 lengths, the three-year-old gelding has to be respected.
11. Mr Hussill (6) – $19
Jockey – Regan Bayliss
Trainer – Cameron Crockett
Another horse with exceptional form, Mr Hussill is yet to miss the placings from six career starts, winning three of them. He has won at the distance, won on a heavy track and has been kept fresh for this, given his 3:2-0-1 first up record. Regan Bayliss is in-form, given his two Group One wins in the Epsom Handicap and Flight Stakes this month.
12. Ceasefire (13) – $26
Jockey – Robbie Dolan
Trainer – Paul Messara
Ceasefire has three wins from four starts but his only miss was at 1200m. He has been kept fresh for this race, which is when he does his best work, but may be found out at the distance.
13. Patino Ruby (5) – $16
Jockey – Alysha Collett
Trainer – Brett Cavanough
Comes from the winning camp from last year’s Kosciuszko and is coming into this off just one run since June, a fourth in a 1100m BM78 at the start of September. Patino Ruby has trialed well since then in the lead up to this and performs best with some give in the turf, which she will clearly get here.
— TAB (@tabcomau) September 12, 2021
14. Sunrise Ruby (4) – $15
Jockey – Glen Boss
Trainer – Mitchell Beer
Another Ruby, this time Sunrise Ruby from the Mitchell Beer camp with Group One Glen Boss on board. She has exceptional form on heavy tracks, 4:3-1-0, and is 4/4 at the distance, indicating she should be right in this from the low draw.
15e. Irish Songs (14) – $41
Trainer – Kurt Goldman
With the scratching of Front Page, Irish Songs sees himself in the 2021 Kosciuszko! He is on a relatively quick backup, racing last Wednesday (6/10), coming third in a 1300m BM78. He does drop back to 1200m, where his best form is, and he has performed well on all track surfaces.
16e. Another One (15)
Trainer – Gary Colvin
While he hasn’t had the best lead up, coming 3rd and 6th with space between runs, Another One is 1/1 third up and hasn’t missed the place from three runs on soft. He just needs to find a way into the race.
17e. Tim’s Principal (16)
Trainer – Jeremy Gask
An exceptionally named horse, Tim’s Principal needs luck to get in here, being the second emergency at the time of writing. He is one of the more experienced horses in the field, if he makes it, but has performed well at the distance and on soft tracks previously.
18e. Kattegat (17)
Trainer – Natalie Jarvis
Being the third emergency, after starting as the fourth emergency, Kattegat will need luck to get into the race and even if he does, he may not drouble them. 1200m is his pet distance and his best form is on soft tracks, but this is a class above.
Does the market have this right, given the four main fancies are all priced between $4.40 and $7? While the race is only three years old, there is yet to be a horse win the race twice, meaning Handle The Truth would be making history. What is working in his favour is the fact that the three previous favourites of the race are yet to miss the top four, with Victorem finishing second in 2019 and It’s Me winning last year.
Four-year-olds have won two of the three runnings of The Kosciuszko, but all four of the main market fancies are older than that, so is it a case of the best horse wins regardless of factors and conditions or is the market missing something?
Sunrise Ruby at $15, out of the Mitchell Beer camp, looks to be the most well-placed runner outside of the top four in the market. She is undefeated at the distance, has drawn well with barrier four and has form on heavy tracks, indicating she could be a blowout chance. She also has the services of Glen Boss, who is known to be a big race rider. Given her racing history and the fact that she is running with the limit weight in this race, she is well over the odds and we are happy to tuck in at each-way odds, especially when Sportsbet are offering a bonus back to fifth place.
Best The Kosciuszko Tip: Sunrise Ruby – Each/Way ($15/$4.40)
Don’t stop here, there is plenty of feature racing happening around the country this weekend! If you want to check out our Runner-By-Runner analysis of The Everest, click here! If you want a preview of Melbourne’s Group One, the Caulfield Cup, click here.
If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our The Kosciuszko page for all your punting needs!
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.