2021 Australian Guineas Runner By Runner Analysis, Odds & Tips

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Fri 26th February 2021

Last year’s Australian Guineas was all about the showdown between Catalyst and Alligator Blood in a small field, whereas this year we’ve got a capacity field of 16 plus an emergency all ready to lock horns for the $1 million up for grabs.

Let’s take a look at each and every runner in the 2021 Australian Guineas to find the winner and some value…

1 – Ole Kirk – $8.00

Obviously a classy horse who has beaten many of these in the Caulfield Guineas, but may not have come back the same galloper in the autumn. His first up run in Sydney was good enough over the 1400m, but his run in the Futurity Stakes was worrying last outing. He was in the bad part of the track on the rail and it’s no shame to struggle at WFA level, but his last 200m was worrying after looming in the straight. Can’t have them all, and happy to be against him here.

2 – Tagaloa – $3.90 👀🏆💰

Outstanding return to form in the CS Hayes Stakes last start where he went out at a huge tempo and was able to back it up with equally impressive closing splits in a performance of the very top shelf.

Had the favours with the barrier last start but should be able to cross and get a nice suck run behind some pacemakers here, and will be right in this again and the one to beat with a similar performance

3 – Aysar – $8.00 👀🏆💰

Doing his best Tom Melbourne impression with four 2nd places in a row. Beat home Tagaloa first up in the Manfred and went down to him last start in the CS Hayes. Tagaloa had the map advantage there and this time Aysar has the better gate, and a far better price about him. There are angles there if you like the horse and think he can turn the tables on the favourite.

4 – Cherry Tortoni – $13 👀🏆💰

Was the run of the race back in the field in the CS Hayes, and will relish the step up to the mile and the return to Flemington where he has had success previously. Has drawn the carpark in 17 and will be spotting the talented on-pacers a massive headstart. Can win this but will need everything to fall his way, goes in everything.

5 – Dom To Shoot – $14 💰

Another coming out of the CS Hayes who performed well, and ran home strongly similarly to Cherry Tortoni. Can throw in exotics at the price.

6 – Lunar Fox – $151

Price tells the tale. Not here.

7 – Grandslam – $61 💰

Placed in the Caulfield Guineas at similar prices to this and will give them something to chase. Could stick on again to run a hole and can be thrown in wider exotics.

8 – Poland – $13 💰

Won the Autumn Stakes at double figures and gets the step up to the mile and Craig Williams on, both ticks. There are a few things going his way, but it’s tough to see him beating some of the stars here. Each way chance.

9 – Beltoro – $61

This looks a pretty optimistic goal. Not here.

10 – Embolism – $61

Talented horse from a great trainer and has D Oliver on, but it’s very tough to back him off his last start

11 – It’sourtime – $35 💰

Another one from the D O’Brien camp, bit of a strange preparation going from the 1400m, down to 1200, and jumping up to the mile. Could run a hole.

12 – Jet Propulsion – $31

Will improve second up and had form around Mo’unga and Peltzer last preparation. Price is about right.

13 – Cambourne – $21

Well supported in the CS Hayes being backed into $6, but never kicked on and finished midfield. Would need to improve significantly.

14 – Ironedge – $101 💰

Won well at Ballarat and looks overs at $101, can be thrown in wider exotics and stranger things have happened.

15 – Here To Shock – $34

Spent his tickets too early to lead in the CS Hayes and from all reports didn’t parade well that day. Looks hard to have.

16 – Zou Dancer – $6.50 💰

It was a visually impressive win in The Vanity last start and she’s a very smart filly with the best jockey in the country onboard in Jamie Kah. However, she beat a bunch of staying type fillies over 1400m, and now she’s thrown in the deep end against the boys. Happy to be against her but she’ll be in this for a long way.

17e – Lofty Star – $201

Unlikely to get a run and will be nowhere near it if he does.

Tip: 2-3-4-5

👀 = Must Watch
🏆 = Big Winning Chance
💰 = Worth Including in Exotics

2021 Australian Guineas Field and Odds

1Ole Kirk (15)J: Kerrin Mcevoy 57kg T: M, W & J Hawkes$8.00$2.80
2Tagaloa (10)J: Luke Currie 57kg T: T Busuttin & N Young$3.90$1.75
3Aysar (2)J: Damian Lane 57kg T: T Dabernig & B Hayes$7.50$2.60
4Cherry Tortoni (17)J: Billy Egan 57kg T: Patrick Payne$12.00$3.80
5Dom To Shoot (7)J: William Pike 57kg T: S & J Casey$12.00$3.80
6Lunar Fox (6)J: Michael Dee 57kg T: P A Preusker$151.00$26.00
7Grandslam (16)J: John Allen 57kg T: C Maher & D Eustace$41.00$8.50
8Poland (1)J: Craig Williams 57kg T: M D Moroney$12.00$3.80
9Beltoro (3)J: Jack Hill 57kg T: Robert Hickmott$61.00$13.00
10Embolism (14)J: Damien Oliver 57kg T: D T O’brien$51.00$10.00
11It’sourtime (12)J: Ben Allen 57kg T: D T O’brien$34.00$7.50
12Jet Propulsion (11)J: Jye Mcneil 57kg T: C Maher & D Eustace$26.00$6.00
13Cambourne (9)J: Mark Zahra 57kg T: M Price & M Kent Jnr$21.00$5.50
14Ironedge (5)J: Michael Walker 57kg T: M Price & M Kent Jnr$81.00$18.00
15Here To Shock (4)J: Luke Nolen 57kg T: Brent Stanley$34.00$7.50
16Zou Dancer (8)J: Ms Jamie Kah 55kg T: L & T Corstens$5.00$2.00
17Lofty Star (13)J: Beau Mertens 57kg T: Julius Sandhu$151.00$26.00


From Muswellbrook to the Melbourne Cup, Will is mad about all things racing and sport. Spent countless hours in the backyard as a child pretending to be Glenn McGrath, and has been known to get deadly late swing with a taped tennis ball.