The stage is set for a cracking 100th edition of the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m), with yet another fight between local hopes and international raiders on the cards.
The track is currently rated a Good 4, but there is expected to be 8-15mm of rain on Friday, and a further 10-20mm expected on Saturday, which would drive the track well into the soft range.
The rail is in the true position, but with the Cox plate being the 17th race in a 24 hour period for the track, and the expected rain, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get away from the rail at this stage.
Let’s take a look at each and every runner in the 2020 Cox Plate.
1 – Kolding – $15 ?
Was in the wilderness after a shocker of an autumn, but has bounced back to form with two wins in a row this preparation. Looks to be travelling well, but I’ve got question marks about his ability to run out a strongly run 2000m, and his level of performance in Melbourne. Could sneak a place with everything going right.
— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 3, 2020
2 – Humidor – $26 ?
Another that Waller has turned around, with a huge win in the Feehan Stakes and good performances in the Underwood Stakes and the Caulfield Stakes. Has drawn horribly and will have to go back, and will be giving them too much of a headstart. Place chances are best.
3 – Fierce Impact – $35
Similar to Kolding, this galloper is in good form but there are queries on his ability over 2000m, I think he is more of a miler. Has obviously beaten Russian Camelot this preparation and is very honest, but think he’s running into a few with more x factor in this one.
4 – Master Of Wine – $41
Sat outside the leader in the Caulfield Cup and had been targeted at that race from a long way out. Didn’t offer much in the closing stages and this looks like an afterthought, the price is about right.
5 – Mugatoo – $31 ?
He won’t mind if the rain comes and will appreciate the drop in trip to the 2000m. Has a good turn of foot and could be in with a knockout chance if he’s not spotting them too many lengths at the turn. Could be worth throwing in wider exotics.
6 – Aspetar – $18 ??
It’s always a bit of a challenge to line up the international form, but Aspetar is a proven Group level performer and does its best work at the 2000m. Handles all going and must be included in all exotics at the big price.
— York Racecourse (@yorkracecourse) July 25, 2020
7 – Sir Dragonet – $14
A few question marks over Sir Dragonet, who hasn’t won for 76-weeks and is yet to to win over the 2000m. Will definitely be enjoying the rain if it comes, but may be better suited over longer, and doesn’t look to possess a massive turn of foot.
8 – Magic Wand – $27
Happy to be against Magic Wand here, who ran well in this race last year, but doesn’t look to be in the same sort of form this time around. Won’t enjoy the cut in the ground with the expected rain.
9 – Arcadia Queen – $5.50 ???
Ultra impressive when turning over Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes and is a massive winning chance, as reflected by the market. The slow tempo in the Caulfield Stakes suited her and allowed her to sprint away, but there should be a faster tempo here, which will suit Russian Camelot. If the rain comes, there are question marks on her ability on a soft track. Goes in everything and wouldn’t surprise me if she won.
Can you believe it?
Arcadia Queen beats Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. She does it easily too! ? pic.twitter.com/TQs1qprUa6
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 10, 2020
10 – Nettoyer – $101
The price says it all, has no chance.
11 – Russian Camelot – $5 ???
Was brought back down to earth last start when Arcadia Queen outsprinted him off a slow tempo. There should be a faster tempo here, which will suit his superior staying ability, but Russian Camelot and jockey Damien Oliver, are going to have to be at their very best with the wide draw. If the rain comes, I’ll be with him.
12 – Armory – $5.50 ???
Is bringing absolute A+ form out here, with a placing behind Magical and Ghaiyyath last start, two of the world’s best middle distance runners. Looks to have a monster turn of foot and if he’s close at the turn he will be a massive chance. Question marks on the soft going so connections will be hoping the rain isn’t bucketing down on the day, but is obviously right in this.
How has Armory got up there! ??
Everything went wrong for Seamie Heffernan but what a turn of foot to pick up and land the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes.
— Jack Dawling Racing (@_JDRacing) August 14, 2020
13 – Probabeel – $8.50 ???
In outstanding form after winning the Bill Ritchie Handicap and the Epsom Handicap, and is right in this with a nice draw. Has to prove herself at 2000m but will enjoy the soft ground, and is well weighted. Has had market support already in from $11, and is an outside chance behind the top three in the market.
14 – Grandslam – $26 ?
The wildcard three-year-old, who will go right to the front from the draw and will make his own luck. Carrying just 49.5kg and will be tough to run down if he keeps improving out of his Caulfield Guineas run. Hard to see him winning, but worth including in wider exotics.
15e – Buckhurst – $51 ?
The unlucky emergency, who certainly has a very fair case to be included in the final field over a few of these. Unlikely to gain a start, but would be worth throwing in exotics if he somehow did.
? = Must Watch
? = Big Winning Chance
?= Worth Including in Exotics
*Odds accurate at time of posting article.
|1||Kolding (10)J: James Mcdonald 59kg T: C J Waller||$13.00||$4.00||Bet Now|
|2||Humidor (14)J: Craig Williams 59kg T: C J Waller||$21.00||$5.50||Bet Now|
|3||Fierce Impact (12)J: Luke Currie 59kg T: Matthew Smith||$34.00||$7.50||Bet Now|
|4||Master Of Wine (1)J: Michael Rodd 59kg T: M, W & J Hawkes||$34.00||$7.50||Bet Now|
|5||Mugatoo (9)J: John Allen 59kg T: K A Lees||$26.00||$6.00||Bet Now|
|6||Aspetar (3)J: Damian Lane 59kg T: Roger Charlton||$17.00||$5.00||Bet Now|
|7||Sir Dragonet (7)J: Glen Boss 59kg T: C Maher & D Eustace||$13.00||$4.00||Bet Now|
|8||Magic Wand (4)J: Mark Zahra 57kg T: A O’brien||$26.00||$6.00||Bet Now|
|9||Arcadia Queen (8)J: William Pike 57kg T: G & A Williams||$5.50||$2.15||Bet Now|
|10||Nettoyer (13)J: Billy Egan 57kg T: Ms W Roche||$81.00||$18.00||Bet Now|
|11||Russian Camelot (15)J: Damien Oliver 56.5kg T: D T O’brien||$4.60||$1.90||Bet Now|
|12||Armory (6)J: Ben Melham 56.5kg T: A O’brien||$5.50||$2.15||Bet Now|
|13||Probabeel (2)J: Kerrin Mcevoy 55.5kg T: J W Richards||$8.00||$2.80||Bet Now|
|14||Grandslam (5)J: Jye Mcneil 49.5kg T: C Maher & D Eustace||$21.00||$5.50||Bet Now|
|15||Buckhurst (11)J: Jamie Kah 59kg T: Joseph O’brien||$51.00||$10.00||Bet Now|