Tips Category: Newmarket Handicap

The 2023 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap takes place this Saturday down Flemington’s iconic straight six (1200m). The time-honoured contest is considered by many as one of the majors on the Australian racing calendar, and with $1.5 million in prize money up for grabs, it has attracted some of the best sprinters from around the country, as it invariably does.

Looking at the market, Dabble has last start Lightning Stakes runner-up, I Wish I Win, a drifting favourite at $4.20, ahead of Godolphin’s star three-year-old filly, In Secret, who has been well supported into $5.00. Private Eye and Lofty Strike are next best in the market, currently $7.50 and $8.00 respectively.

As anyone who follows horse racing would know, anything can happen in this great game and the Flemington straight can throw up some unorthodox results. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2023 Newmarket Handicap along with The Shark’s best tips. 

1. Private Eye (2) – $7.50
Jockey – Brenton Avdulla 58kg
Trainer – Joseph Pride

Explosive galloper who resumes here off the back of a couple of quiet trials. Blew his rivals away first up last prep at this track/trip before going down a half length in The Everest. Will let the early speed go and have the last shot. Major player despite carrying top weight.

2. Mazu (16) – $15
Jockey – Sam Clipperton 57kg
Trainer – Peter & Paul Snowden

Another who resumes here with strong formlines. Was beaten just under a length in The Everest before chasing Private Eye home in the Winners Stakes at the end of last prep. Recent trial was good and he’s a two time winner fresh. First go down the straight here but cannot be overlooked.

The Newmarket Handicap should be one of the great betting races every year. Sprint race, which is what Australian racing predominantly is, run as a handicap, with a big field at most popular track. Should be marketed heavily as one of the great betting opportunities for punters.

— Shane Anderson (@Globalgallop) March 8, 2023

3. I Wish I Win (14) – $4.20F
Jockey – Luke Nolen 56.5kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody

Has been the talk of the town since his eye-catching first up run in the Lightning Stakes three weeks ago, where he smashed the clock late. The added trip here suits, despite his better form being over further than 1200m, and he’s yet to miss a place from four goes second up. Will get back early and be saved for one crack at them. Looks the one to beat if he can repeat his first up performance.

4. Roch ‘N’ Horse (3) – $31
Jockey – Jamie Mott 55.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Winner of this race last year who got a pass mark when resuming in the Oakleigh Plate a fortnight ago. This race looks far more suitable and she gets in well at the weights. Has taken some big scalps at this track/trip in the past and no reason she can’t build on that record here. Respect.

5. Baller (13) – $31
Jockey – Blake Shinn 55kg
Trainer – Tony Gollan

Queensland galloper who was sound first up in the Lightning Stakes after a slow getaway. Will appreciate the step up to 1200m here and has a great record down the straight, including a Group 2 win and a Group 1 placing behind Roch ‘N’ Horse and Nature Strip last Spring. The wide draw suits and he will appreciate the weight relief. Definite each-way chance.

6. Bella Nipotina (1) – $15
Jockey – Craig Williams 54.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Ran her typical honest race first up in the Lightning Stakes, when finishing third to stablemate Coolangatta. Should be cherry ripe second up here and Williams sticks. Yet to win from six goes at Flemington and the inside draw are the query’s but rarely runs a bad race.

7. September Run (11) – $26
Jockey – Jye McNeil 54kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Showed positive signs first up in the Lightning where she looked the winner at the furlong. Finished third in this race last year and has run well on other occasions down the straight. Three time winner second up and should be all the fitter for that first up hitout. Not without a hope.

Wide open affair in the Newmarket
Handicap this time around! The Peter Moody-trained I
Wish I Win opens up at the top of the market, but is he
a lock to remain there? 🔐

Who do you have on top in the Newmarket? 👆 pic.twitter.com/GvYdfim1uP

— Unibet Australia (@UNIBETAustralia) March 8, 2023

8. The Astrologist (15) – $41
Jockey – Damian Lane 54kg
Trainer – Leon & Troy Corstens

Runner-up in this race last year who was slow out first up in the Oakleigh Plate and never got into the race. Another who will appreciate the step up in trip and has a brilliant record down the straight. Look for an improved showing.

9. Lofty Strike (12) – $8.00
Jockey – Craig Newitt 52.5kg
Trainer – Julius Sandhu

Lightly raced colt who was super first up in the Rubiton before chasing hard into second place in the Oakleigh Plate last time out. Ran well down the straight in the Coolmore last prep and was beaten just 1L in the VRC Classic at the end of his campaign. Fair to say he’s come back a bigger and better horse and looks very hard to beat under the handicap conditions. Big show.

10. Chain Of Lightning (6) – $23
Jockey – Linda Meech 52kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody

Didn’t have much room first up in the Rubiton and hit the line hard when clear before an even effort in the Oakleigh Plate last start. Rise in trip suits and is a winner down the straight. Needs to find a bit on her most recent effort but can easily run into the money on her form prior.

11. Front Page (7) – $21
Jockey – Patrick Moloney 52kg
Trainer – Geoff Duryea

Corowa trained sprinter who was beaten just 1.5L in the VRC Classic at the end of last prep. Has a brilliant fresh record and is a winner down the straight at 1200m. Others appear to have stronger form on paper but he will get out of the boxes hard and give a sight on speed.

12. Snapper (4) – $81
Jockey – Michael Poy 52kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Speedy type who is a two time winner down the straight, albeit at weaker level than most of these. This looks his biggest test to date but will get rolling early from the low draw and try to run them off their legs with no weight on his back.

The weights for the Newmarket Handicap are in 👇#AfterTheLast pic.twitter.com/mA5QORgMwf

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 6, 2023

13. Star Patrol (10) – $18
Jockey – Damien Thornton 52kg
Trainer – Clinton McDonald

Good win first up at Sandown over 1000m before warming up late in the Oakleigh Plate. Step up to 1200m looks ideal now and he gets a set of visors on for the first time. Flemington record is solid and can run a race under the light weight. Each-way hope.

14. Swats That (5) – $51
Jockey – Daniel Moor 52kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Ran well first up at Randwick under the big weight, albeit behind far less superior opposition to what she will face here. Wasn’t beaten far in this race last year and is a three time Group 1 placegetter down the straight. Place chance at odds.

15. In Secret (8) – $5.00
Jockey – Jamie Kah 51.5kg
Trainer – James Cummings

Too good for her rivals first up in the Light Fingers at Randwick before racing a little bit flat second up in the Surround Stakes. Demolished a smart field her only go this track/trip in the Coolmore last Spring and gets in light here. Will stalk the speed from the middle draw and be right in the mix the last 200.

16. Buenos Noches (9) – $12
Jockey – Ben Thompson 50.5kg
Trainer – Matthew Smith

Found the line well first up in the Lightning and has since trialled well at Warwick Farm. Step up to six furlong is a big positive and despite being lightly raced is a professional down the straight, where he’s run Giga Kick to a nostril. Another who will stalk the speed from the middle gate and be hard to hold out late in the race. Don’t overlook.

Final Word

Terrific race here with some of the country’s best and most progressive sprinters lining up. Think the three-year-olds will take a lot of beating at the weights and with that said, happy to go with Lofty Strike on top.

Who Wins The Newmarket Handicap Saturday @FlemingtonVRC ? https://t.co/R4sleZ8KT6

— Jeremy Bullock (@LuckyTips6) March 6, 2023

His first up win in the Group 2 Rubiton was excellent, smashing the clock late, before coming from the clouds in the Oakleigh Plate last start to finish second. He was beaten just 1L in the Group 1 VRC Classic at the end of last prep and looks to have come back far better this preparation. Will be charging late under the 52.5kg and looks a great each-way bet for mine.

Sticking with the three-year-olds and feel Buenos Noches and In Secret are the main dangers. Both gallopers are well performed down the Flemington straight and have come back in good order this prep. Both are drawn middle draws and should get a lovely trail into the race and be strong late.

Speaking of powerful finishes, I Wish I Win and Private Eye are the two gallopers who will get back and charge home. The Moody trained, I Wish I Win, was excellent first up in the Group 1 Lightning and a repeat performance would see him hard to hold out here. Just think the price on offer for a proven 1400/miler is a bit skinny, whilst Private Eye needs to overcome a low draw and top weight, but is more than capable of winning this fresh.

For those taking trifectas and first fours it may pay to include Queensland galloper, Baller. His first up run in the Lightning was solid after stepping away slowly and he loves the Flemington/1200m, where he’s a Group 2 winner and has been Group 1 placed.

Newmarket Handicap Tip

9. Lofty Strike – Each-way ($8.00/$2.75)

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If you need more news, information and tips, head over to our Newmarket Handicap page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.

The $1.5m Newmarket Handicap, run over 1200m at Flemington, is a G1 race held during the Autumn Carnival, the same day as the G1 Australian Cup. Recognised as one of the most prestigious sprint races in Australia, the Newmarket Hcp has been won by some absolute speed stars, since it’s first running in 1874, the most notable being Black Caviar in 2011.

As well as the Australian Cup, Bart Cummings also holds the record for most wins in the race as a trainer. He won the Newmarket 8 times, most recently with versatile galloper Shaftesbury Avenue, in 1991.

Looking at the market for this year’s sprint feature, Dabble has last start Lightning Stakes winner, Home Affairs, favourite at $3.70, just ahead of the John O’Shea trained, Lost and Running, at $3.90. These two dominate the market, and are the only runners under double figures at this stage. Three year old colt, Artorius, is currently the next best in the market at $11.

However, we know with horse racing that anything can happen, and a capacity field of sprinters heading down the Flemington straight six can be hard to line up. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Newmarket Handicap along with The Shark’s best tips. 

1. Masked Crusader (13) – $13
Jockey – Jye McNeil 57kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

The Everest runner up, who seemed somewhat disappointing first up in the G1 Lightning Stakes. That was his first go at Flemington, and the 1000m may have been a bit sharp for him. The step up to 1200m here, and a nice barrier can see him bounce back big time. 

2. Home Affairs (16) – $3.70F
Jockey – James McDonald 56kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

Star colt, who won the G1 Lightning Stakes last start, defeating stablemate and odds on favourite, Nature Strip. He won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring in good time, so obviously has an affinity with the Flemington straight. Draws the outside here, which could be advantageous if the wider lanes are superior, and McDonald sticks. Hard to knock.

How close will he be in the run in Saturday’s Group 1 Newmarket Handicap?

Can Artorius beat Home Affairs… 👇 pic.twitter.com/8bbnaUyRb5

— SENTrack (@SEN_track) March 8, 2022

3. Lost and Running (9) – $3.90
Jockey – Hugh Bowman 56kg
Trainer – John O’Shea

Excellent win first up in the G3 Southern Cross Stakes at Randwick, where he carried the grandstand (61kg), and defeated Overpass, who has since won the Inglis Sprint. He finished on their heels in The Everest, and drops 5kg here. Ticks plenty of boxes, and if he can handle the Flemington straight, he’s more than capable of getting the job done.

4. Zoutori (1) – $41
Jockey – Damian Lane 55.5kg
Trainer – Matthew Ellerton

Got back and never figured first up in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Step up in trip suits, has won 4 times from this start, and gets a nice little weight drop. Can improve with those factors in mind, but not sure he can find enough to win this. 

5. Count De Rupee (7) – $26
Jockey – Brock Ryan 54kg
Trainer – Robert & Luke Price

Went to another level last prep, winning the $1m Gong, and being nailed on the line by Im Thunderstruck, in the $7.5m Golden Eagle. Has a good fresh record and has won 4 from 6 over 1200m. Not sure he is quite up to a few of these over this distance, but in saying that, I also don’t think he’s here for the scenery. Has to be respected.

6. Levante (10) – $23
Jockey – Michael Dee 53.5kg
Trainer – Ken & Bev Kelso

Dual G1 winning kiwi mare who brings with her a brilliant record, and an electric turn of foot. Won the G1 Telegraph Stakes two back in good fashion, before taking out the G1 BCD Group Sprint last start. Hard to line up that form, but I have no doubt she can measure up here. Draws well out in the middle, and will be finishing hard at the business end of the race. 

7. Halvorsen (11) – $41
Jockey – Dean Holland 52.5kg
Trainer – Robbie Griffiths & Mathew de Kock

Flemington straight track specialist who was good last start winning the G3 Standish Handicap. Won the Kensington Stakes three back, defeating Malkovich, who won here last week. May struggle to win this, but is racing well and will appreciate the light weight. Place hope. 

8. Oxley Road (15) – $19
Jockey – Blaike McDougall 52.5kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody

Consistent horse who ran well last start in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Has form lines around the likes of Masked Crusader, and will roll forward out wide on the track. Deserves his spot in the field, but it’s hard to see him taking home the winner’s cheque.

9. Poland (14) – $101
Jockey – Michael Poy 52.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Ran a big race first up in the G1 Oakleigh Plate, where he finished 5th. Stable is in form, and he’s 1 from 1 here at Flemington, albeit over 1400m. In saying that, he might find these a bit sharp, and I’m happy to leave him out, and wait for him to get to 7 furlongs. 

“He’s quite a strong sort of bloke.”

With Poland & Roch ‘n’ Horse in this Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap, we caught up with Mike Moroney to get his thoughts on the race. pic.twitter.com/To8jJnuOjM

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 9, 2022

10. Quantico (12) – $16
Jockey – Kerrin McEvoy 52.5kg
Trainer – John O’Shea

Talented gelding resuming. Rounded out a good prep, with a strong win in the Listed MSS Security Sprint here at Flemington, last Spring. Has trialled well, in company with stablemate, Lost and Running, in preparation for his return here. This is a big ask first up, but is capable of being competitive.

11. Roch ‘N’ Horse (3) – $61
Jockey – Patrick Moloney 52.5kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Another kiwi visitor who brings solid form across the ditch here. Has finished runner up to Levante twice in her last three outings. Again, it’s hard to line that form up, but the Moroney camp wouldn’t have her here if she wasn’t up to it. 

12. September Run (8) – $26
Jockey – Jamie Kah 52.5kg
Trainer – Chris Waller

G1 winning mare resuming. Form last prep was below par, with her best run being first up in the G2 McEwen Stakes. Won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes this track/distance as a 3YO, and ran 2nd in last year’s G1 Lightning Stakes. If she can find some of that form, she can win the race, but that seems a big query. 

13. Snapdancer (17) – $16
Jockey – Harry Coffey 52.5kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Underrated mare who resumed with a brilliant win in the Magic Millions fillies and mares feature on the Gold Coast, before again destroying her rivals second up in the G3 Triscay Stakes at Randwick. Steps up to the big time now, and will have to improve again to make it three on the hop. Not sure she can win the race, but will certainly give backers a sight.

14. Swats That (6) – $16
Jockey – Craig Williams 52.5kg
Trainer – Leon & Troy Corstens

Resumed with a strong effort in the G1 Lightning Stakes, behind race favourite Home Affairs. Her late sectionals were slick on that occasion, and she drop’s 4kg here. She finished 2nd in last year’s G1 VRC Classic behind Nature Strip, and has to be considered a live hope in this at good odds.

Who Wins The Newmarket Handicap Super Saturday @FlemingtonVRC ? https://t.co/R4sleZpNV6

— Jeremy Bullock (@LuckyTips6) March 7, 2022

15. The Astrologist (4) – $61
Jockey – Fred Kersley 52.5kg
Trainer – Leon & Troy Corstens

Finished down the track last start in the G1 Lightning Stakes. Prior to that, his form was good in weaker races. Has good stats this track/distance, but finds himself backing up in G1 grade here again. Hard to see him figuring after his last performance. 

16. Artorius (2) – $11
Jockey – Craig Newitt 51kg
Trainer – Anthony & Sam Freedman

Blue Diamond (2021) winning colt, who resumed in the G2 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield. On paper, it looks as though he may have been disappointing, but his run was full of merit, and his last furlong was very strong. The step up to 1200m is a big plus here, and he finished 3rd in last year’s Coolmore Stud Stakes, suggesting the straight is no problem. If he can follow something into the race from the low draw, and get a clear crack at them the last 400m, he is more than capable of finishing over the top of them. Each way chance.

17. Finance Tycoon (5) – $26
Jockey – Josh Richards (a) 50.5kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

Ran his rivals into the ground last start in the G3 Zeditave Stakes at Caulfield. Has had a throat op, and likes to roll along in front at his own leasure. Don’t think he will be able to do that here, and is hard to see him putting another win next to his name in this.

Final Word

This year’s Newmarket Handicap shapes up to be a brilliant contest. Star 3YO colt, Home Affairs, was super first up defeating stablemate, Nature Strip, and was electrifying last prep winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes, at this track/distance. If he can run up to either of those performances again here, he will take a tonne of beating. 

In form gelding, Lost and Running, was just as good winning first up in the G3 Southern Cross Stakes at Randwick, and the form has since been franked, with Overpass winning here last week. His form last prep was strong, and looks to be in for a great prep. Those two dominate the market, but the winning chances certainly don’t end there. 

Lightning Stakes winner Home Affairs has drawn barrier 15 in the Newmarket Handicap.

James McDonald is booked again to ride.#Flemington pic.twitter.com/Vbuj27hEVN

— bet365 AUS (@bet365_aus) March 9, 2022

Masked Crusader will be out to make amends, after what seemed a below par first up run in the Lightning. The step up to 1200m suits, and it’s hard to write him off on that run alone. Kiwi mare, Levante, has an explosive turn of foot, and if she can adapt to the Flemington straight, she is more than capable of finishing in the money. 

Mares Swats That and Snapdancer look ready to put in big performances going off their last start efforts, and 3YO colt Artorius, is a horse loaded with ability, and just needs the right run to be able to unleash his devastating turn of foot. 

Summing up, I’m going to put Lost and Running on top. His first up win proved he has come back in great shape, and his overall form is hard to look past. Bowman comes to Melbourne to partner him, he’s drawn nicely in the middle of the pack, and he drops 5kg off his first up win. If he can handle the Flemington straight (which I have no doubt he will), it’s going to take a very good horse to beat him here. 

Best Newmarket Handicap Tip: 3. Lost and Running – Win ($3.90)

If you need more news, information and tips, head over to our Newmarket Handicap page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.

It’s a massive Super Saturday with four Group 1 contests up for grabs, including the time honoured Newmarket Handicap (1200m).

Let’s take a look at each and every runner who are locking horns for the $1.25 million…

1 – Zoutori – $21 💰

Loves the track and trip and is easy to have on your side at the price if you’re looking at betting around the favourite. Can include in exotics.

2 – Elite Street – $27 👀💰

Was off the plane from WA on a Tuesday and straight into the Lightning Stakes where he pulled up with an internal bleed. Has since been back to the jumpouts and looks back to normal. Is already a Group 1 winner, and at his best he can win this.

Streets ahead.. It's a boilover in the Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes. 👏👏

Elite Street takes out the Group 1 at Ascot. pic.twitter.com/NcmChEYjTU

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) November 28, 2020

3 – Imaging – $16

Ran well first up in the Futurity Stakes but just got outmuscled by Streets Of Avalon. Happy to be against at the 1200m, does his best work over the seven furlongs.

4 – Kemalpasa – Scratched

5 – Celebrity Queen – $14 💰

Most of her best form is over the seven furlongs but she came out and won the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) with a huge finish in the inferior part of the track. Goes up 2.5kg and is taking on a tougher field, though you must respect her.

DEAD HEAT…

Portland Sky and Celebrity Queen share the spoils in the Oakleigh Plate. pic.twitter.com/9suKNSHOCh

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) February 20, 2021

6 – Dalasan – $26

No idea if this horse is a sprinter, a miler, or a stayer, and not sure the camp know either. Easy to have on your side at the price if you’re a fan, but I’m happy to be against him.

7 – Flit – $27

Likes the Flemington straight and could win this at her absolute best, but she’s a hard horse to catch. Won the Silver Eagle last preparation but that form is questionable, with Alligator Blood not being at his best.

8 – Standout – $61 👀💰

Was never suited in the Oakleigh Plate first up, drew horribly and had to do a stack of work. Was running behind the likes of Libertini, Classique Legend, Nature Strip, and Bivouac last prep. Gets the blinkers on here and a kinder draw, is a knockout chance.

9 – Bold Star – $71

Good turn of foot but may get too far back, lacks the class needed to win a Group 1.

10 – Brooklyn Hustle – $21 👀💰

Outstanding explosive finish in the Oakleigh Plate, is yet to win at Flemington or the 1200m, but natural progression could see her right in the finish.

🇦🇺AUSTRALIA(Moonee Valley)5/9/2020 : (GR.2) Bella Vella(Commands/Forget The Weather By Stormy Atlantic)

Wins Mittys Mcewen Stakes

3 years old & upwards
1000m Turf(0:58:02)

O : W T Clarken, J P Kelton Et Al
T : Will Clarken
J : Jamie Kah

2nd : Ashlor
3nd : Brooklyn Hustle pic.twitter.com/05ESkDduiL

— NAHEEZ RACING نحيز ريسنغ (@musallamqatan) September 5, 2020

11 – Halvorsen – $101

We’ve seen stranger things happen like Lunar Fox taking out the Caulfield Guineas, but I’d be floored if Halvorsen won this.

12 – Indian Pacific – $27

Outgunned by track specialist Fabergino here last week but that form must be respected. On the quick backup but the 1200m is a bit of a down side.

13 – Prophet’s Thumb – $46

Will get well back and may be giving some very handy types too many lengths. Is a monster price if you’re a fan, but happy to be against.

14 – September Run – $2.20 👀🏆💰

Put together a great spring campaign and was absolutely outstanding when resuming in the Lightning Stakes behind Nature Strip. Is the best horse in the race, and I think only bad luck beats her. If you like backing favourites, it’s tough to see a chink in her armour.

What an exceptional filly she is. The daughter of Exceed And Excel, September Run teaches them a lesson in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. 💨 pic.twitter.com/8SmdWgdnOk

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 31, 2020

15 – Sirius Suspect – $13 💰

Outstanding track and trip numbers and has J Kah on, which is a massive plus at the moment. Won at Group 3 level last start and this is a big jump, but is in the game if the favourite is off her game.

16 – Amish Boy – $46

Back down in trip, not here.

17 – Prague – $51

Ran quite well in the Eskimo Prince and gets the blinkers on here, could be worth throwing in exotics at the quote.

18 – Swats That – $7 👀🏆💰

Rock bottom in the weights and beat home Bivouac in the Lightning Stakes, and arguably should have beaten September Run in the Coolmore. Looks the main danger.

“Lethal turn of foot”. 2 Group wins in a row for Shamus Award filly, Swats That in Thoroughbred Club S. at Caulfield. With 3 wins from 5 starts, Swats That is from the Bel Esprit mare, Is It A Mosquito and a direct descendant of Champion Mare, Let’s Elope. Group 1 Coolmore next? pic.twitter.com/narZAmEbJp

— Aushorse (@Aushorse_TBA) October 10, 2020

Tip: 14-18-2-8

💰 = Worth Including in Exotics
👀 = Must Watch
🏆 = Massive Winning Chance