Tips Category: Memsie Stakes

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2022 Memsie Stakes Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

Last weekend we saw star colt Anamoe destroy his rivals in the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Royal Randwick Racecourse, which kicked off the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival for 2022. This weekend Melbourne takes centre stage with the running of the Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield.

The 1400m feature has long been a starting point for Spring contenders and the $1m weight-for-age contest has attracted some very prominent names this year. Last year’s Memsie was taken out by Adelaide-trained galloper, Behemoth, who also won the race in 2020.

Looking at the market, Dabble currently has Stradbroke Handicap winner, Alligator Blood, and former WA gelding, Western Empire, equal favourites at $5.50, with unbeaten entire, Illation, right on their heels at $6.00. Old timers, Cascadian and Tofane, are next best at $7.50 and I’m Thunderstruck and Snapdancer are also in commission.

If the market is anything to go by, this year’s Memsie looks anyone’s race. So, we have dissected each of the horses’ chances for you and provided our horse racing tips! Read on below to find our runner by runner preview of the 2022 Memsie Stakes along with The Shark’s best tips.

1. I’m Thunderstruck (9) – $8.50

Jockey – Mark Zahra 59kg
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

Finished runner up last prep in both the All Star Mile and G1 Doncaster Hcp. Has a brilliant fresh record and is a G1 winner at this track/trip. Will get back from the gate but if the pace is genuine he’ll be finishing hard.

2. Cascadian (7) – $7.50

Jockey – Blake Shinn 59kg
Trainer – James Cummings

Returns as an 8YO this prep but seems to be going as well as ever. Liked his recent trial behind stablemate Anamoe, where he hammered the line late. Although on paper he doesn’t have the best record here at Caulfield his runs, especially over 1400m, have been very good. Gives Blake Shinn a golden opportunity to bag an early Spring feature and his first G1 winner since returning from Hong Kong.

3. Alligator Blood (1) – $5.50EF

Jockey – Damien Oliver 59kg
Trainer – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Controversial former-Qld trained galloper who was a brilliant winner of the Stradbroke Hcp last start. Has a good fresh record and is a winner over 1400m here at Caulfield. Will need some luck from the inside draw but gets the services of D Oliver which is a big tick. Has been well found in the market but has to be respected.

4. Nonconformist (4) – $34

Jockey – Jordan Childs 59kg
Trainer – Grahame Begg

Stamped himself as a genuine G1 stayer last prep after finishing runner up in both the Caulfield Stakes and Caulfield Cup. No doubt will have bigger fish to fry later in the prep as the trips get longer, but is capable of running a race fresh at big odds.

5. Western Empire (12) – $5.50EF

Jockey – Damian Lane 59kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

G1 winner in WA who has an excellent record and the ability to run time. We’ve seen time and time again the Perth form stands up and this bloke is a genuine top liner. The gate doesn’t make his task any easier and will need to be close to 100% to win this off a 9 month break, but is certainly good enough to measure up.

6. Callsign Mav (14) – $21

Jockey – Jamie Mott 59kg
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

Former Kiwi who’s best run in Australia was here at Caulfield. Will roll forward from the outside gate but may find a few of these a bit sharp first up.

7. Elephant (11) – $51

Jockey – Daniel Moor 59kg
Trainer – Emma-Lee & David Browne

Resumed here a fortnight ago behind Mr Brightside where he got back and struggled to make any headway. Should be improved by that run but this race certainly isn’t any easier.

8. Zeyrek (8) – $71

Jockey – Damien Thornton 59kg
Trainer – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Listed Randwick winner last prep. Has trialled well leading into this but is on a Cups path and will most likely find them a bit slick for him here.

9. Dragon Leap (2) – $34

Jockey – Michael Dee 59kg
Trainer – Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott

Trans Tasman visitor who resumed with a good effort at Ruakaka first up over 1100m. Will improve with the step up in trip and must be going well to be lining up here. Not sure he’s good enough to win but a forward showing wouldn’t shock.

10. Lightsaber (6) – $41

Jockey – Luke Nolen 58.5kg
Trainer – Peter G Moody

Almost caused a boil over in the Australian Guineas last prep only to be nabbed late by Hitotsu. Had a solid hit out at the trials leading into this and will enjoy a cosy run from the good gate. Shouldn’t be far away when the whips are cracking.

11. Illation (13) – $6.50

Jockey – Jamie Kah 58.5kg
Trainer – Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr

Star 3YO who resumes here in what will be his toughest test to date. Made mincemeat of his rivals in a Pakenham maiden before two Listed wins in Adelaide last prep. Faces a tough ask first up from the wide draw but oozes ability and has a lethal turn of foot. Keep safe.

12. Tofane (3) – $7.50

Jockey – Jye McNeil 57kg
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Iron mare who returns here after adding another G1 to her CV last prep. Drawn to get a gun run from the low draw and 1400m is her pet trip. Hard to knock her and there looks to be no reason she can’t do what she did fresh last prep in the CF Orr.

13. Duais (10) – $23

Jockey – Joshua Parr 57kg
Trainer – Edward Cummings

Dual G1 winner last prep who was scratched from last weekend’s Winx Stakes in Sydney. She looks a key player in this year’s Cup races and connections will be happy to see her hitting the line here, and perhaps take home some minor prize money.

14. Snapdancer (5) – $10

Jockey – Ethan Brown 57kg
Trainer – Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Speedy mare who ran them into the ground to claim her first G1 victory last prep in the Sangster. Has trialled well leading into this and finally draws a decent alley. Will be in it for a long way.

Final Word

A host of top class gallopers return here in what looks to be one of the stronger Memsie Stakes of recent times. There looks decent speed on paper which should ensure a genuine tempo and grant every horse an opportunity to win providing no major track bias.

Although he’s come up with an outside gate and faces a star-studded G1 field for the first time here, I can’t go past Illation. He was breathtaking in his first preparation and should have improved after a break. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t measure up in this and go on to have a triumphant Spring carnival.

Evergreen mare, Tofane, should get every chance from the low draw first up. She blew her rivals away fresh last prep in the G1 CF Orr this track/trip and should get similar conditions again.

Godolphin warhorse, Cascadian, and Illation’s stablemate, I’m Thunderstruck, will be out the back early but both tick a lot of boxes here first up. With any amount of luck it won’t be a surprise to see either of them take out the race.

Happy to go around the well fancied duo in Alligator Blood and Western Empire. Alligator Blood will need luck from the inside draw and the former-Perthian resumes here after a lengthy stint on the sidelines, and will find it tricky from the wide gate first up.

Memsie Stakes TipLogo

11. Illation – Win ($6.50)

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*Odds correct at time of writing, courtesy of Dabble.

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2021 Memsie Stakes Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips

It is Melbourne’s turn to host a Group One, with the Memsie Stakes to be run over 1,400m at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday. We have analysed every aspect of the race to provide you with a runner by runner preview, along with our best Memsie Stakes tips. Behemoth, who won the race last year, tops the market at $4.20 (via Sportsbet on Thursday afternoon), but there are plenty of challengers to steal the crown.  

The final field of 12 horses includes seven that have won at group one level while there is a good mixture of horses returning from a spell and those that will bring in some solid race fitness. 

1. Fifty Stars (6) – $27
Jockey – John Allen
Trainer – Tom Dabernig

First run for Fifty Stars under the sole training of Tom Dabernig he has high hopes for the seven-year-old. Has won first up and has three wins from 10 starts at the distance, but may find this a bit sharp against some of these. Would benefit from a fast pace set up front, which could happen. Over the odds but not a winner. 

2. Behemoth (9) – $4.20
Jockey – Brett Prebble
Trainer – David Jolly

The defending champ has returned in good condition, as shown in his G3 Spring Stakes run, against Beau Rossa. Is 3:2-0-0 at the track/distance and won’t care if the track is a good4 or soft5. Will have his first run under Jamie Kah, with Williams sticking on Tofane and the wide draw may undo his usual running pattern and a late drift wouldn’t surprise.

3. Streets Of Avalon (10) – $19
Jockey – Dean Yendall
Trainer – Shane Nichols

Shane Nichols is bullish about his geldings chances for a second straight 1400m run at Caulfield. Was found mildly lame after going down as a short priced favourite in the P.B. Lawrence and, reportedly, is at 100% for this one so may be over the odds.

4. Archedemus (11) – $81
Jockey – Fred Kersley
Trainer – M, W & J Hawkes

Happy to leave out. Wide draw doesn’t help his forward running pattern given there is speed on his inside. Hasn’t placed in his last four second up runs. 

5. Red Can Man (8) – $21
Jockey – Michael Dee
Trainer – David Brideoake

One to watch with the track conditions. Needs a genuine good track to compete with these and with no rain expected between now and race time, he could get it. Was a strong third in the P.B. Lawrence but the class lifts again in this race. 

6. Sansom (2) – $35
Jockey – Ben Allen
Trainer – Phillip Stokes

The only runner to have more than two wins with his jockey as Ben Allen has ridden him 12 times for eight wins. In saying that, he has never run in a Group One and has to compete under weight-for-age conditions against some genuine Group One horses.

7. Aegon (7) – $10
Jockey – Jye McNeil
Trainer – M Baker & A Forsman

One of two exciting four-year-olds in the race. The Kiwi has five wins from seven starts but is just one win from three starts in Australia. Is 2/2 first up and 2/2 at 1400m but has never contested at weight-for-age or carried this much weight in a race before. Also needs some give in the turf (6:5-0-0 on soft compared to one run on good for a 3.4L sixth) and likely won’t get that. 

8. Beau Rossa (1) – $9.50
Jockey – Linda Meech
Trainer – Will Clarken

Beat Behemoth passed the post in the G3 Spring Stakes but finished second on a protest. This will be his toughest test to date and will be doing it from the front of the pack, but has never contested at weight-for-age and hasn’t won in two third up runs. Could surprise given his fitness. 

9. Colette (12) – $11
Jockey – Damien Oliver
Trainer – James Cummings

Interesting runner for Godolphin. Is a bit of a fan favourite but this is her first run in Melbourne and first run in the anti-clockwise direction. She also relishes a rain-affected surface and won’t get this in this one. Impressive first up win in the Autumn, comfortably beating Verry Elleegant and Kolding, who went on to win Group Ones later that prep, but that was on a soft7.

10. Tofane (4) – $4.40
Jockey – Craig Williams
Trainer – Michael Moroney

Aiming to be the first horse since Winx to win three straight Group Ones. She had a wonderful Winter Carnival with a 2nd before two Group One wins over 1400m, in the Stradbroke Handicap and Tatt’s Tiara. The query will be whether 1400m is too sharp first up, especially considering she is 5:0-1-1 off a break. However Willow chose to stay on her instead of Behemoth, the residual fitness from a late finish should hold strong and she has drawn perfectly.

11. Inspirational Girl (3) – $7
Jockey – Damian Lane
Trainer – Danny O’Brien

One of the more intriguing runners in the field, Inspirational Girl comes to Melbourne for her first run since a narrow second in the G1 Kingston Town Classic, all the way back in early December. The mare has an incredible record of finishing in the placings in all 12 of her career starts but this is her first run outside of WA and there are questions on how that form stacks up. She is obviously talented, given she has a 1st and a 2nd from her two Group One runs but it has been nine months between competitive runs. 

12. Sierra Sue (5) – SCRATCHED
Jockey – Luke Currie
Trainer – T Busuttin & N Young

The most in-form and fit runner of the field, Sierra Sue comes in off the back of two straight wins at 1400m, in the Mildura Cup and the P.B. Lawrence Stakes, here two weeks ago. The distance is perfect for her, given she has four wins from six starts at 1400m and three wins from her other 10 starts. Should get a nice position from the draw however did finish 4.3L off Tofane in 12th in the Tatt’s Tiara in June. Obviously has shown something since then and is in good form, but can she match it with genuine Group One horses?

Final Word

This is a very intriguing race and potentially more open than last week’s Winx Stakes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Aegon, Beau Rossa and Inspirational Girl right there in the finish, while Streets Of Avalon is over the odds, if he is 100% healthy, and is a nice exotics play. 

However, there are a clear top two in the market for a reason and the mare seems to be the way to go. Behemoth gets an awkward draw out wide and this is a better field than in both of his Group One wins last Spring. Adding to that, Craig Williams had the choice of both Behemoth and Tofane, sticking with the latter. She is drawn perfectly in gate four, can win on either good or soft surfaces and has big aspirations for this Spring Carnival, with this being the perfect kick-start. With Sportsbet offering bonus back up to 3rd and PointsBet offering bonus back up to 4th, you should be safe to either win or get a bonus back as a worst case scenario. 

Best Memsie Stakes Tip: Tofane – Win ($4.40)

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our Memsie Stakes page for all your punting needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Sportsbet.